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Poll: Do you use energy percentages?
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Do you use energy percentages?

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Old 08-09-2022, 03:38 PM   #31
ranchwest
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tells of FORM CYCLE or when a horse stretches out (particularly during the road to the Triple Crown you can tell which colts have it in them to stretch out to longer distances. THOSE who cannot, their % median rises as the distances increase)
I understand what %Median tells. I didn't understand the initial question, which I interpreted to mean using %M to select a pace line. That's what I didn't get.
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Old 08-09-2022, 08:47 PM   #32
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I suspect this is an extremely good response, but it is really a bit deep to just completely grasp immediately as far as actual implementation. But I am going to go over it and give it some thought. Thanks!
I havent done it for a while since I stopped subscribing to the software that enabled me to do it, but let me try and find something that will illustrate it.
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Old 08-09-2022, 10:51 PM   #33
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I understand what %Median tells. I didn't understand the initial question, which I interpreted to mean using %M to select a pace line. That's what I didn't get.
That will lead to sample error
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Old 08-10-2022, 01:21 AM   #34
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I havent done it for a while since I stopped subscribing to the software that enabled me to do it, but let me try and find something that will illustrate it.
Thanks, that would interest me.
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Old 08-10-2022, 03:13 PM   #35
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I always felt like "energy distribution" combined with "track profiles" should be the Holy Grail, but I never came across an energy distribution formula I felt worked as well pace figures where a number is assigned to each pace call or where you just look at running styles and watch races.

There's probably a magic bullet buried in energy distribution somewhere, but the reality is very difficult to capture in a formula. It probably already exists for humans. I have to think the most elite minds in physics and biology focused on track and field have created formulas for maximizing final time at various distances under different conditions for human runners and understand how variations impact things (at least better than we do for horses).
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Old 08-10-2022, 09:49 PM   #36
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I always felt like "energy distribution" combined with "track profiles" should be the Holy Grail, but I never came across an energy distribution formula I felt worked as well pace figures where a number is assigned to each pace call or where you just look at running styles and watch races.

There's probably a magic bullet buried in energy distribution somewhere, but the reality is very difficult to capture in a formula. It probably already exists for humans. I have to think the most elite minds in physics and biology focused on track and field have created formulas for maximizing final time at various distances under different conditions for human runners and understand how variations impact things (at least better than we do for horses).
I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
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Old 08-10-2022, 10:06 PM   #37
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I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
Agree 100%
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Old 08-10-2022, 10:09 PM   #38
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Most horses in most races would fall within the profile range for energy distribution. Narrow the range and it doesn't work.
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Old 08-12-2022, 09:13 AM   #39
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I believe energy distribution and track profiles are much better for eliminations than selections.
I understand what you are saying. You are trying to find horses that match the demands of the track and conditions of the race. But there must also be a way to use the internals to evaluate performances better. The formulas I've seen seem to miss the mark. Not that I have one that I've tested that will work better. I just always felt something that could be created.
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Old 08-12-2022, 09:36 AM   #40
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I understand what you are saying. You are trying to find horses that match the demands of the track and conditions of the race. But there must also be a way to use the internals to evaluate performances better. The formulas I've seen seem to miss the mark. Not that I have one that I've tested that will work better. I just always felt something that could be created.
The Sartin Methodology has 7 basic factors that can be used to rank horses. The composite of those rankings is a generally good measure and many winners come from the top 5.

But I find that the best evaluation is the pace setup and determining whether the winner will run from the front end or the rear and which ability will prevail in the late stages of the race. It's not something that can be ascertained by looking at the individual numbers of a single horse or even by simple mechanical comparisons of a few numbers. It is the interaction among the horses that has to be evaluated.
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Old 08-12-2022, 10:03 AM   #41
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The Sartin Methodology has 7 basic factors that can be used to rank horses. The composite of those rankings is a generally good measure and many winners come from the top 5.

But I find that the best evaluation is the pace setup and determining whether the winner will run from the front end or the rear and which ability will prevail in the late stages of the race. It's not something that can be ascertained by looking at the individual numbers of a single horse or even by simple mechanical comparisons of a few numbers. It is the interaction among the horses that has to be evaluated.
And, of course, the pace line selected makes a lot of difference.
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Old 08-12-2022, 11:31 AM   #42
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And, of course, the pace line selected makes a lot of difference.
IMO, you have to be careful with pace line selection.

If you explain why almost any horse won, you can find a reason using pace line selection. But you don't want to build biases into your thinking that are not backed by data.
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Old 08-12-2022, 11:57 AM   #43
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Isn't picking one paceline kind of like missing the wedding and showing up for the funeral?
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Old 08-12-2022, 01:23 PM   #44
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Isn't picking one paceline kind of like missing the wedding and showing up for the funeral?
Isn't picking two pacelines like kissing your sister?
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Old 08-12-2022, 01:26 PM   #45
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IMO, you have to be careful with pace line selection.

If you explain why almost any horse won, you can find a reason using pace line selection. But you don't want to build biases into your thinking that are not backed by data.
Of course. There always has to be validity.
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