Saratoga LATE Pick 5

[EMD4ME]

Normally, I would pass tomorrow's early pick 5 as I don't like the horses involved in the sequence BUT with a LATE pick 5 being added to tomorrow's menu, maybe I will play a pick 5 tomorrow.

Good job NYRA for listening!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Normally, I would pass tomorrow's early pick 5 as I don't like the horses involved in the sequence BUT with a LATE pick 5 being added to tomorrow's menu, maybe I will play a pick 5 tomorrow.

Good job NYRA for listening!

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

[classhandicapper]

I think adding more options for players is a very good idea, but I don't quite understand the popularity of these bets.

The advantage of exotics over the Win pool is the ability to combine multiple value oriented opinions onto 1 ticket, which typically results in greater value than Win alone. But for it to make sense, you need 2 or more value oriented opinions. Maybe some people find more frequent errors in the pools than I do, but I rarely find enough for a pick 5 to make much sense.

If I find multiple errors and they are in consecutive races, I don't get involved in Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s when I have no value oriented opinions in the other legs. I play a Double.

If my opinions are in 1st and 3rd, I might consider a pick 3, but I won't add a 4th or 5th leg.

For me to consider a Pick 5, I'd have to have value oriented opinions in the 1st and 5th leg and also think races 2-4 were decipherable enough that I wasn't at some kind of disadvantage. How often do things like that happen?

I think what really drives a lot of these wagers is a desire to be a hero and make a score and not that they actually offer consistently better wagering opportunities. People don't enjoy 30% winners at $7.00 as much as the occasional big score (even if they were in the hole a ton of money when it finally happened).

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

Sounds possible but only after leg 1. Won't be today as I don't like the early pick 5 and I am not sure I want to play the late pick 5 yet. Maybe this weekend.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think adding more options for players is a very good idea, but I don't quite understand the popularity of these bets.

The advantage of exotics over the Win pool is the ability to combine multiple value oriented opinions onto 1 ticket, which typically results in greater value than Win alone. But for it to make sense, you need 2 or more value oriented opinions. Maybe some people find more frequent errors in the pools than I do, but I rarely find enough for a pick 5 to make much sense.

If I find multiple errors and they are in consecutive races, I don't get involved in Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s when I have no value oriented opinions in the other legs. I play a Double.

If my opinions are in 1st and 3rd, I might consider a pick 3, but I won't add a 4th or 5th leg.

For me to consider a Pick 5, I'd have to have value oriented opinions in the 1st and 5th leg and also think races 2-4 were decipherable enough that I wasn't at some kind of disadvantage. How often do things like that happen?

I think what really drives a lot of these wagers is a desire to be a hero and make a score and not that they actually offer consistently better wagering opportunities. People don't enjoy 30% winners at $7.00 as much as the occasional big score (even if they were in the hole a ton of money when it finally happened).

Honestly, after living the Pick 5, if they took it away, I'd seriously consider leaving the game. It is just the greatest bet in the game we know. If I took the time to list why, we'd be here reading till next month. I'll say the following to keep it short:

Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. I know mine. I hate to really like 2 horses in the same race. (assuming value with both). Do I play an exacta box, do the dynamics justify an exacta, which one will win etc. I find myself maybe breaking even or losing in those races as I may choose the wrong one of the 2 and when the other wins, it hurts.

Have you checked the payouts vs the parlay prices? That 5th leg is AMAZING.

It's not a Pick 5. It's a survive 5. Most bettors don't bet enough to Pick 5, so all you have to do is bet enough to survive 5. (all that within reason. You won't bet $4000 into a pick 5 just to cover all logical contenders, that's stupid. You have to take a stand somewhere). You are right, if you have a win bet in races 1 and 5 AND you don't have an opinion in races 234, it could or should be a pass. However, if you have an opinion in races 1 & 5 and believe the favorite will lose 1 or 2 of the remaining races, it's a great bet to bet single, spread, spread, spread, single.

Last weekend, August 26th, there was no way I was making a win bet or an exacta on Syndergaard or Bobby on Fleek. Used both.

Race 2, after intense workout study, trainer stats, breeding study, etc I landed on the 3 chalks. NO BALLSY OPINION. No Value but used all 3.

Race 3, hated the field. 7 horses, only knew the 6 had no shot (20/1 ML) and that I believed the favorites had a very good chance to lose. Used 6 of 7.

Race 4, singled the 3/5, didn't think this horse would be beat by the 3 turf runners running an off the turf race. Liking a 3/5 is not an exciting opinion.

Race 5, liked the 3/5 shot a lot. Again, no real sexy handicapping, just accepting that the 3/5 should win more than 65% of the time.

2 x 3 x 6 x 1 x 1.

The choice could've been to bet the cold R4 and R5 double. I did, for $200. Paid $8 and change.

Also took advantage of the pick 5 to play a $7 pick 5. 7 X 36=$252 (Small wager for me).

Paid $848 VS a parlay of near $340.

That is 1 chalky example of maximizing 2 chalky opinions into a decent return.

There was little risk of losing the $252. Race 1 was 100% between the 2 chalks. Race 3, the bomb had a 1-3% chance of winning. Race 2 was a bit of a risk but not really.

The risk was in return, as if a chalk won race 3, then the return would've probably been near the $200-$250 mark.

So If I would've taken the $252 and bet my chalk DD, I would've received the same money that I would've received if the chalk won race 3.

In this case, I got back $2940 instead of $1000.

I'm ok with that risk.

Why?

Because more often than not, especially at NYRA, you will be rewarded. It's hard for people to narrow down when you have the riding tactics/variance that these guys create.

Hope that makes sense, typing fast as I need to get back to today's card. Talk more soon

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Honestly, after living the Pick 5, if they took it away, I'd seriously consider leaving the game. It is just the greatest bet in the game we know. If I took the time to list why, we'd be here reading till next month. I'll say the following to keep it short:

I'm not going to argue with success.

I think one of the issues with me is that I often put so much energy into handicapping a single race, I try to keep the betting as simple as possible.

If I like a horse I bet him to win.

If I think 2 horses are good value, I bet both to win and box them in the exacta.

If I hate the favorite but have no strong opinion, I spread around a little in the triple.

If I like horses in consecutive races I bet both to win and make a cold double.

I'm never out there fishing for a score just for the sake of making a score. It's too easy for me to make handicapping mistakes to compound it with betting mistakes.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not going to argue with success.

I think one of the issues with me is that I often put so much energy into handicapping a single race, I try to keep the betting as simple as possible.

If I like a horse I bet him to win.

If I think 2 horses are good value, I bet both to win and box them in the exacta.

If I hate the favorite but have no strong opinion, I spread around a little in the triple.

If I like horses in consecutive races I bet both to win and make a cold double.

I'm never out there fishing for a score just for the sake of making a score. It's too easy for me to make handicapping mistakes to compound it with betting mistakes.

I hear you Class. I know my strengths and I know my weaknesses. I need to stay where I am strong, even at the cost of overbuying a ticket or spreading too much in some cases.

I too, keep things very simple sometimes to keep the bankroll moving. Vic smashed me for it but I have no problem taking my 2 safe selections of the day and playing a parlay to place with a heavy amount of money. I'll take $3.20 and $3.00 on a two race parlay every day from now till 2080. Why? Because if we could all bet $2 and collect $4.80 every day (with a good portion of our bankroll, we'd quit work).

Plus, the pick 5 can have some massive psychological swings. (Hit a $40 horse you love but lose a different leg ). You might still bet that horse to win but your mind runs to the money you spent on the pick 5 (that could've been bet to win).

One needs to have the psychological (crazy ) make up for the wager.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

I'll post pics if need be.

I did play a pick 5, as after I saw the scratches, I got interested.

Race 1: 14 were the A's 37 were covers

Race 2: 3810 are the A's. 2 is a solid B plus. 5 is a C. Played extra money on the 10 as he will be overbet.

Race 3: 1 is the A. ALL are the covers

Race 4: 12359 (spread to just get by this one). Small cover to 468.

Race 5: 2 is the A. 6 is a minor B. Played 1 ticket to the rest (minus Porvoo) just in case the 1st four legs run 14/10/1/12359.


On to the late pick 5, need to see if I will play that one.

[rsetup]

What's your ROI for pk5's?

[Robes]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.

You don't need to run 10 races 2 have 2 pick-5s Gulfstream has 8 races on weekdays and they have 2 p_5s.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by rsetup

What's your ROI for pk5's?

Rounded off, Wagered $250,000 in pick 5's this year. Collected $300,000.

1.20 ROI

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I'll post pics if need be.

I did play a pick 5, as after I saw the scratches, I got interested.

Race 1: 14 were the A's 37 were covers

Race 2: 3810 are the A's. 2 is a solid B plus. 5 is a C. Played extra money on the 10 as he will be overbet.

Race 3: 1 is the A. ALL are the covers

Race 4: 12359 (spread to just get by this one). Small cover to 468.

Race 5: 2 is the A. 6 is a minor B. Played 1 ticket to the rest (minus Porvoo) just in case the 1st four legs run 14/10/1/12359.


On to the late pick 5, need to see if I will play that one.

Bone crushing error. Marked 17 as the A's initially for race 3. Decided that I didn't want the 7 off of his kind of weak gallop out in his suck up sprint prep. Didn't even make him a B. Only a weak cover.

Oh well. Such is the game

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Rounded off, Wagered $250,000 in pick 5's this year. Collected $300,000.

1.20 ROI

Very strong ROI. My initial thought was that, based on what I'd read previously, a good part of your return was from the $95k pick5.

But there's no reason to believe you wouldn't have a huge hit or two each year.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by rsetup

Very strong ROI. My initial thought was that, based on what I'd read previously, a good part of your return was from the $95k pick5.

But there's no reason to believe you wouldn't have a huge hit or two each year.

If you're wagering on so many pick 5's per year, if you don't hit some big ones, you're playing wrong. At least IMHO.

The one I blew 2 weeks ago hurt (4/5 and the 1 loss involved 2 bonehead rides), $386K for a duece. Had the harder ones (1 was 60/1 or so) in the sequence and missed a relatively easy one.

[EMD4ME]

BET $456 into the pick 5 and if the 2 wins this race, despite making a collossal stupid decision (in race 3), can hit the pick 5 4x to the 2 for a profit $624. If the 6 wins, hit it for .50 measly cents. Collect $150 and lose $306. Others win, complete loss on this minor investment.

The scratches in race 2 helped a bit as I moved to the chalk.

After I lost race 3 and the chalk won race 4, I thought I would be alive for peanuts, maybe get some of my bet back.

I am shocked that the pick 5 to the 2 is paying $271 for .50

9/2, 1/10000 (with scratched horses into him), 8/5, 6/5 and maybe 3/1 (if the 2 wins). Parlay is $280 for a deuce, pick 5 is paying $1080 to my horse.

So, even by being wrong, I have a chance to profit decently on a smallish bet.

Let's see what happens.