Physicality Handicapping

[ernie simons]

Does anybody on the forum depend on physicality handicapping *more* than using the figs and data?
Can you spot a potential winner by his appearance and pre-race actions, such as prancing, tail position & movement, overall physical appearance, etc?

[alysheba88]

Thats something I want to become good at. Pretty clueless now.

I go to live racing most of the time and usually can get a good view of the horses. I will make notes in my program but havent gotten to the point where I will make a bet because one horse looks better than another. I sometimes will avoid a horse who looks bad. You really need to know how a horse looks all the time. To see how he looks today compared to last time he ran.

Anyway, I think this is one area I need to focus on a lot more since most people are just buried in their numbers and charts and forget the flesh and blood animal.

[Buddha]

I have had a few winners by checking out the paddock and the horses in it before the race. I don't really look for anything special. If I see something about a horse that catches my eye, I may bet it or at least give it another chance. And most of those types of horses arent your favorite. You can get some nice prices that way.

[JimL]

Hope So Cal, responds to this post. I think this is one area that is under played. JimL

[Valuist]

I usually use it as a a supplement but occasionally I'll head over to the OTB at lunch. No handicapping or past performances then, just make some small wagers going 100% by physicality handicapping. I think its one area where a sharp player can have an edge, since 99% of the public has access to some kind of speed figures, or is using software.

[headhawg]

I am also very weak in this area so I don't use it. However, it does seem that it is not only an undervalued handicapping factor, but something that if used properly would definitely put us on "live" contenders and off false favorites.

What do people think of Joe Takach's "Beat the Beam" video. Is it worth it? I don't usually play at the track, but the local OTB or online. Any thoughts about handling not being at the track? Can physicality handicapping be done this way, or is the video just a moneymaker?

HH

[Valuist]

Definitely get Beat the Beam. It is well worth the price. When I first got it, I watched it over and over. Maybe 7 or 8 times. But when I got to the track, I was hesitant to make wagers based on physicality. And I missed out on some nice priced winners. I think speed figures, in conjunction with appearance capping, is the way to go.

[so.cal.fan]

I am have a very strong opinion here.
I am convinced that this is a factor responsible for 50% of the puzzle.
The condition of a horse a few minuets before it competes in a race is of the utmost importance.
The few people I know who are experts at judging the condition of a horse before a race all have an advantage I can only compare to insider trading on the stock market. FACT.

[ernie simons]

Not just the condition of the horse, but the way the horse carries himself I think. Some horses prance from barn to paddock to post. They just LOOK ready. I understand some people spend the entire day at the track looking for just that horse.

[delayjf]

I subcribed to Takach's news letter for a while and I can say that when Joe said a horse looked bad after a race, it almost always ran back poorly. The only reason I don't subscribe now is I'm not playing full time now.

Most of the stuff is rather easy to learn, walking short, energy level, Kidney sweat, etc. Swollen knees/ankles can be difficult to spot. I'd say you can learn about 90% of what you need to know in one season at the paddock. Conformation, to me, takes time. I still have trouble picking up what lead a horse is on coming down the stretch, slow mo replay really helps.

I found physically handicapping most valuable in the following situations:

Evaluating winners after a race.
Did they come back from the race exhausted, Blowing hard, head down or still on his toes, head up. You still have to handicap. IE I'd expect a lay off horse who needed the race to be blowing hard after a race and would expect him to improve next time. But if a horse in form comes back that way after a tough race and he looked good after previous races, then I'd expect a decline.

Changes from previous races
knowing what a horse looked like when he performed well before, can give you a good idea what he'll do today. This may require you to dig back to your notes 5 races ago, but if you see improvement that approximates what he looked like in previous good starts AND what you see is an improvement over his last race, I'd expect him to run his race.

Combined with speed figure, pace handicapping etc and you can really improve your game.

[PARFOUR]

We are given two eyes to see what is in front of us, no ? Why more people donot watch the paddock and post parades is jusst beyond me. I use my powers of observation to guide me in my choices. Granted, I do my homework the day before with the DRF, I try to keep up to date with charts to keep current on the tracks I bet etc. BUT - the inspection method of handicapping will add to your ROI when you spend some time at it. the Takach video and the Bonnie Ledbetter videos are good, but get out to the paddock and watch as well as when the horses are brought over from the barn, and during the warmup before the race. At a teletheater/ otb watch the santa anita paddock and post p. on TV they do it well. They show the horses for a longer time in the paddock than the brief PP shot.

I can give you one recent example, from opeining weekend at Gulfstream. I saw this magnificent filly in the paddock, alert, with controlled energy. She looked great in the post parade as well. She won by 10 in 1:09 and change. She ran last weekend at Gulfstream in a stakes and won agian in 1:08 and change. Her name , Madcap Escapade . Shes as nice a filly as you will ever see and i cant wait to see her stretch out. Just watch the horses and jot down the numbers and see how you do, in time they will pop out at you in a shorter time.

[Aussieplayer]

The author of the book I mentioned somewhere in the Handicapping Library claimed that one could make a (modest) ROI simply by eliminating favs with poor physicality & betting the rest.

Not to mention the high win strike rate % that such a strategy would enable.

Cheers
AP

[Jeff P]

AP-

Conversely, one can have success betting on favorites by passing them when they show negative signs and playing them when they show positive signs.

[John]

Does anyone have " Beat the beam" that they would like to sell or trade. For me to buy the video tape is to expensive. I would really like to view it.

John

[pasco]

My biggest complaint with TVG is that they talk to much and show the TVG stage instead of the horses in the paddock or on track warming up.I e-mail them but they don't care.Most of those guys can't pick a winner anyway and Corey Black is a joke..