Closing Fast or Passing Tired Horses ???

[Dan H]

This is a two part question about how a handicapper can discern a horse that is closing fast from a horse just passing tired horses. A friend has suggested that I can narrow down my contenders (at Santa Anita) with a little analysis in this area.

First, is there a way to discern these two from each other by analyzing points of call and fractional times listed in the PPs?

Second, when trip handicapping, are there visible signs of a tired horse in the stretch?

I have access to pp files that allow me to show race times, race fractions, horse times, or horse fractions. I can also get to BRIS PPs through Twinspires.

Any help here is greatly appreciated.

[bisket]

a horse that is closing will generally run right around 12 for the last furlongs and 24 for last 1/4 or if its 1 1/16 around 30 seconds. anything below 12 second furs for those fractions are stakes quality. once again it depends on the level of race your analyzing as to whether the horse is closing or just running evenly.

[46zilzal]

Put the third fraction velocity over the 2nd call velocity. If it is 97, the horse is fast closing. If it is 82, it is hanging on. SIMPLE

On the turf, you see decelerations (this calculation above) in the range of 108 winning but not 94

[Jackal]

The pro-ride favors closing horses. You don't need a mathematician to sort this out. Just watch HRTV for a few weeks.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Jackal

The pro-ride favors closing horses. You don't need a mathematician to sort this out. Just watch HRTV for a few weeks.

Nearly every time i see this statement i go to Results Charts and what do i see

Horses wiring, horses 1 length or less behind leader winning, horses 2 length or less behind leader winning, horses further back winning.


How is that track favouring closers when that is happening??

[Charlie D]

SA Feb 3rd - 7th


Done this quick so don't grief me if number is a out a couple 20 winners 2 lengths or less behind leader at 1st and 2nd calls, including numerous horses wiring.




Does this suggest ignore, chuck out E, P types on Pro-Ride or treat each race as a seperate and then decide if the race dynamics favours the E, P, or S type.

[Charlie D]

Last two Aqueduct meets

12 winners over 2 lengths or more behind leader at 1c have gone on to win


Does Aqu now favour closers??

Do exactly same here as you should do at SA and treat each race as a seperate and then decide whether the race dynamics favour E, P or S type.

[Charlie D]

Dan

Probably best way is to watch live and replays of the races and make notes.



Go to NYRA and have listen to Andy Serling on Trips and Traps for an idea of what to take note of.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Dan H

This is a two part question about how a handicapper can discern a horse that is closing fast from a horse just passing tired horses. A friend has suggested that I can narrow down my contenders (at Santa Anita) with a little analysis in this area.

First, is there a way to discern these two from each other by analyzing points of call and fractional times listed in the PPs?

Second, when trip handicapping, are there visible signs of a tired horse in the stretch?

I have access to pp files that allow me to show race times, race fractions, horse times, or horse fractions. I can also get to BRIS PPs through Twinspires.

Any help here is greatly appreciated.

The easiest way to determine actual closing velocities is to use data files with a program that calculates velocities.

Or, you might find that you prefer pace figures that take into account factors in addition to raw times. The close figures are often labelled LP for late pace. These are often included in PDF files.

Using beaten lengths alone is generally not a very reliable method of determining the power of the close.

IMHO, at a track like the SA AW, a horse should have a good late velocity regardless of running position.

A strong closing horse will usually change leads off the turn, prick back his ears, not raise his head, keep a long stride and not alter course on his own. If he was truly closing well he will usually run out well after the wire.

HTH.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Dan H

Second, when trip handicapping, are there visible signs of a tired horse in the stretch?

.

Drifting out is one sign.

[46zilzal]

Late pace is far far far far overvalued unless it was accomplished against the SAME 2nd call pace as another contender.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Drifting out is one sign.

repeatedly changing leads

[Dan H]

Thanks to all for sharing your insight.
Dan H

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Dan H

Thanks to all for sharing your insight.
Dan H

I just compare his fractions fromn the last few races to see if he is on the improve or not.I look for a last fraction that has remained steady and a quicker run from the horse to the first and even the second call while running the same time for the last fraction.Turn time is especially helpful in this analysis.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Nearly every time i see this statement i go to Results Charts and what do i see

Horses wiring, horses 1 length or less behind leader winning, horses 2 length or less behind leader winning, horses further back winning.


How is that track favouring closers when that is happening??

charlie poly track, all weather, or whatever you prefer to call it only has a bias to closing horses at distances of 1 1/16 mile or longer. at 6-7 furlongs the track plays fair. this i think is what causes all the confusion. 1 mile your guess is as good as mine