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Old 06-13-2018, 01:00 PM   #16
dilanesp
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
You suggested that it was the training environment, relative paces, and aggressive riding tactics that gave west coast horses an edge. So shouldn't even lesser types that ship east from the west win?

I basically took away two horses that dominated their respective divisions and the whole idea comes undone. Chalon winning a minor stakes (and losing 3 graded stakes in the east) won't rescue your theory.

It basically comes down to the quality of the horse. Nothing about west coast being inherently stronger than the east.
There's no superiority. Chad Brown is doing the same thing with turf horses. So how would that be possible if California horses are so amazingly superior?

Now, I do think it is fair to take these differences into account when evaluating the strength of races. It is pretty obvious, for instance, that a horse sweeping through the California winter 3 year old stakes is probably beating top competition these days, as is a grass star sweeping through the New York turf Grade I's. But this is cyclical, at some point a top conditioner of 3 year olds or a big time horse will bubble up in New York, and the California horses will get their butts kicked.
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:30 PM   #17
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Must be great to have a "Horse of the Century" every other year!
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Old 06-13-2018, 04:27 PM   #18
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There's no superiority. Chad Brown is doing the same thing with turf horses. So how would that be possible if California horses are so amazingly superior?

Now, I do think it is fair to take these differences into account when evaluating the strength of races. It is pretty obvious, for instance, that a horse sweeping through the California winter 3 year old stakes is probably beating top competition these days, as is a grass star sweeping through the New York turf Grade I's. But this is cyclical, at some point a top conditioner of 3 year olds or a big time horse will bubble up in New York, and the California horses will get their butts kicked.
Its socal dirt
NY turf

to me they are at different levels for the last few years, the amount of shipping and wins in big races has kind of proven that out.

If had some money I would buy some well bred under achieving turf horses from so so barns on the east coast and send them to guys like D'Amato and on the west coast.
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:35 PM   #19
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and how many minor horses are gonna ship? I mean your only going to do it with good horses in good races.
Lots of claimed horses go back east now, partly as a result of the claiming rules in CA and also because of wintering barns like David Jacobson and Robert Falcone. Also, some CA stables second strings to Oaklawn in the winter.

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I would say a 250k stake on Belmont weekend is a major race, if you see that different so be it.
It's $150K and its ungraded.

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run the numbers, I bet its a huge profit maker.
So far in 2018 in NA stakes east of Santa Anita:

Simon Callaghan 2-for-11 (2.90, 3.20)

Peter Miller 0-for-9

Phil D'Amato 0-for-3

Peter Eurton 0-for-5

Neil Drysdale 2-for-4 (4.40, 3.40)

Doug O'Neill 2-for-16 (6.20, 4.70)

Jerry Hollendorfer 1-for-7 (2.30)

Bob Baffert 8-for-26 (0.60, 1.70, 2.90, 0.40, 0.60, 0.80, 3.55, 1.00)

Richard Mandella 0-for-1

Richard Baltas 1-for-6 (2.10)

Mike McCarthy 1-for-2 (4.70)

Mick Ruis 0-for-2

John Sadler 0-for-4

Jeff Bonde 0-for-1

Jeff Mullins 0-for-2

Mike Pender 0-for-1

Keith Desormeaux 3-for-10 (29.80, 8.80, 1.50)

Bob Hess 0-for-7

total = 20-for-117 (17%)

$2 payout = $171.10

wagered = $234.00

loss = - $62.90

ROI based on $2= $1.46
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:44 PM   #20
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Must be great to have a "Horse of the Century" every other year!
It's happened before...this is nothing new.
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:50 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Lots of claimed horses go back east now, partly as a result of the claiming rules in CA and also because of wintering barns like David Jacobson and Robert Falcone. Also, some CA stables second strings to Oaklawn in the winter.


It's $150K and its ungraded.



So far in 2018 in NA stakes east of Santa Anita:

Simon Callaghan 2-for-11 (2.90, 3.20)

Peter Miller 0-for-9

Phil D'Amato 0-for-3

Peter Eurton 0-for-5

Neil Drysdale 2-for-4 (4.40, 3.40)

Doug O'Neill 2-for-16 (6.20, 4.70)

Jerry Hollendorfer 1-for-7 (2.30)

Bob Baffert 8-for-26 (0.60, 1.70, 2.90, 0.40, 0.60, 0.80, 3.55, 1.00)

Richard Mandella 0-for-1

Richard Baltas 1-for-6 (2.10)

Mike McCarthy 1-for-2 (4.70)

Mick Ruis 0-for-2

John Sadler 0-for-4

Jeff Bonde 0-for-1

Jeff Mullins 0-for-2

Mike Pender 0-for-1

Keith Desormeaux 3-for-10 (29.80, 8.80, 1.50)

Bob Hess 0-for-7

total = 20-for-117 (17%)

$2 payout = $171.10

wagered = $234.00

loss = - $62.90

ROI based on $2= $1.46
you need to use some impact values since there were horses that started in the same race (ie 2 horses cant win one race, usually).

and lets keep it real, lets say limit it from 0-15/1...15/1 is a better price between long shot and hopeless entry. please remove all grass races as well, like i said, dirt only.

and please lets use a larger sample, 3 years, 5 would be better.

And please limit it to stake races only so that we avoid cheap claims and stuff that go to bad barns.

Last edited by GMB@BP; 06-13-2018 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 06-13-2018, 08:55 PM   #22
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Looks like I should have bet on Keith Desormeaux.
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Old 06-14-2018, 12:57 AM   #23
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ylets use a larger sample, 3 years, 5 would be better.
2014-2017 dirt stakes only:

Simon Callaghan 5-16 (7.70)
Peter Miller 3-23 (16.65)
Phil D'Amato 1-9 (0.95)
Peter Eurton 3-14 (5.80)
Neil Drysdale 0-7
Doug O'Neill 16-83 (85.50)
Jerry Hollendorfer 15-68 (24.00)
Bob Baffert 46-141 (107.50)
Richard Mandella 0-4
Richard Baltas 1-14 (6.50)
Mick Ruis 1-4 (2.00)
John Sadler 4-22 (6.80)
Jeff Bonde 1-6 (3.40)
Keith Desormeaux 5-43 (12.65)
Bob Hess 2-8 (12.20)

Totals: 103-462 (22%) ($291.65)

$2 Payout = $583.30

wagered = $924.00

loss = - $340.70

ROI based on $2 = $1.26
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Old 06-14-2018, 10:18 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
2014-2017 dirt stakes only:

Simon Callaghan 5-16 (7.70)
Peter Miller 3-23 (16.65)
Phil D'Amato 1-9 (0.95)
Peter Eurton 3-14 (5.80)
Neil Drysdale 0-7
Doug O'Neill 16-83 (85.50)
Jerry Hollendorfer 15-68 (24.00)
Bob Baffert 46-141 (107.50)
Richard Mandella 0-4
Richard Baltas 1-14 (6.50)
Mick Ruis 1-4 (2.00)
John Sadler 4-22 (6.80)
Jeff Bonde 1-6 (3.40)
Keith Desormeaux 5-43 (12.65)
Bob Hess 2-8 (12.20)

Totals: 103-462 (22%) ($291.65)

$2 Payout = $583.30

wagered = $924.00

loss = - $340.70

ROI based on $2 = $1.26
What is the number in parentheses for each trainer? Odds of the winner? The D'Amato one, for example, 0.95?
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Old 06-14-2018, 01:50 PM   #25
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What is the number in parentheses for each trainer? Odds of the winner? The D'Amato one, for example, 0.95?
I am confused as well, I am also trying to recall when Baltas has shipped anything of note, I cant think of it off the top of my head.

Drysdale has had a dirt horse the past decade in a stake race?

Keith D had a 14/1 shot win this year so I am confused.
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Old 06-14-2018, 02:50 PM   #26
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I have Baffert

Past 3 years

20/68

dirt

shippers

Odds from even money to 15/1 at 2.55 ROI per $2...which is pretty bad on just a straight play but in 8 of the races he had multiple horses so that throws it off a touch.

Obviously I dont think were talking about 1/5 shots as good bets, so there needs to be some context. Let me check Oneill.
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Old 06-14-2018, 03:05 PM   #27
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What is the number in parentheses for each trainer? Odds of the winner? The D'Amato one, for example, 0.95?
Quite the flub on my part, thanks. I failed to add back the original $2 bet to the winner's payout.

The total payout ought to be $789.30.

ROI is $1.71 unless I botched something else.
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Old 06-14-2018, 03:27 PM   #28
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Quite the flub on my part, thanks. I failed to add back the original $2 bet to the winner's payout.

The total payout ought to be $789.30.

ROI is $1.71 unless I botched something else.
Ok, makes more sense...with a little filtering and common sense you can its not too hard to make money.

Still, I cannot recall Drysdale running a horse on dirt in forever.
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Old 06-14-2018, 04:00 PM   #29
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Quite the flub on my part, thanks. I failed to add back the original $2 bet to the winner's payout.

The total payout ought to be $789.30.

ROI is $1.71 unless I botched something else.
That is what I suspected. Losing less than 15 cents on the dollar is a lot better than betting horses randomly.
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Old 06-14-2018, 04:11 PM   #30
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Speaking of Oneill, he is the Wesley Ward of summer two year olds all of a sudden in socal.
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