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04-30-2018, 07:10 PM
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#61
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
People hate Bolt and Justify.. so weird...
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I don’t hate them but at a low price the original poster is right. It’s a bad bet. At least there’s a few that agree. All the horses he named have not beaten squat and they ship and get beat. Something I pointed out before. Bolt has not beat any of the top horses........ever. Solomini is a perennial board horse, no stakes wins. I hope Bolt and Justify get bet hand over fist. It smells like a hype job, like someone else said. Cause the class lines and form sure don’t make these two look strong.
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04-30-2018, 07:38 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
When you say find one article , do you mean one article in the media or one post on this website ?
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media, and I dont mean blogger.
just link the article, I will read it.
I am looking for stuff like "many lengths better than this field", "would take a scenario thats tough to envision for this horse to lose", "propbably the most likely winner we have seen in this race in a long time"
you know, that kind of stuff.
Heck, find it on this board will be tough. Dont give me a speed figure that is lengths better, give me people writing he is an easy winner.
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04-30-2018, 07:39 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
I don’t hate them but at a low price the original poster is right. It’s a bad bet. At least there’s a few that agree. All the horses he named have not beaten squat and they ship and get beat. Something I pointed out before. Bolt has not beat any of the top horses........ever. Solomini is a perennial board horse, no stakes wins. I hope Bolt and Justify get bet hand over fist. It smells like a hype job, like someone else said. Cause the class lines and form sure don’t make these two look strong.
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I am cool with about the 12/1 I am going to get on BDO, if thats too low a price, well its a pari mutual game.
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04-30-2018, 07:49 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I am cool with about the 12/1 I am going to get on BDO, if thats too low a price, well its a pari mutual game.
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People who know, know BDO.
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04-30-2018, 08:00 PM
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#65
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Justify for sure is one of the biggest if not the biggest hype job the KY derby has ever seen. Without the Baffert led PR machine and these pumped up phony speed figures than Justify would not even be in the top 10 of the betting action if people just went off the merits of the horse .
The evidence ...
You can try all you want to legitimize his SA derby speed figure but once you take the lip stick off the pig the stone cold facts are he ran one of the slowest SA derby’s against what probably was the weakest and smallest SA derby in history and he gets rewarded with the highest speed figures of any horse this year when you got horses like Mendelssohn, Audible and Magnum Moon crushing much more difficult fields in their final preps and in the case of Mendelssohn obliterating the track record.
In Justify workouts it’s never about the final time it’s always ignore the one tangible thing like time and instead just let your imagination take over and fantasize in your head a out how much his stride and coat color remind you of secretariat.
He has had zero races that have done anything to prepare him for the bumper car environment of the derby. He’s raced in mostly hand picked fields of also rans and always had these scripted trips. He has raced in fields of 5 horses twice and a seven horse field once. I would say his first two races ecspecially were paid workouts but honestly the 4 horses he raced against in both races were not even the quality of workout horses that the other top contenders use. His first two races can accurately be called media exhibitions not races.
The gut reaction from the three highly acclaimed analysts that worked the SA derby was wondering if Baffert would even run Justify in the derby at all after his lackluster “victory” yet what everyone saw as lackluster the guys who make the numbers decide to reward Justify with the highest beyer of the year lol ???
And the way Bolt just obviously laid down for Justify. Just handing him the win. Not even attempting to make a race of it until it was way too late. Castellano said on the record he got the orders to let Justify have a easy uncontested lead straight from the trainer of Bolt Mick Ruis. Yeah that Mick Ruis .... Mr. Integrety right there. Bolt played the role perfectly of being entered in the SA derby to keep it from being a complete joke yet not doing anything that would keep Justify from getting the points he needed to make the derby.
I am guessing there are some deep pockets out there with a big smile on their face about Justify being the heavy favorite ecspecially with exchange wagering where you don’t even need to pick the winner. If you got enough cash you can just bet against Justify to win and since he is such a big favorite you can still make a killing just doing that with basically no risk because the reality is Justify is in way over his head against several more accomplished horses.
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04-30-2018, 08:08 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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is deja vu all over again
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04-30-2018, 08:11 PM
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#67
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
media, and I dont mean blogger.
just link the article, I will read it.
I am looking for stuff like "many lengths better than this field", "would take a scenario thats tough to envision for this horse to lose", "propbably the most likely winner we have seen in this race in a long time"
you know, that kind of stuff.
Heck, find it on this board will be tough. Dont give me a speed figure that is lengths better, give me people writing he is an easy winner.
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Just off the top of my head since I just read your post.
How about the guy who posted on here that Justify second race proved he was the premier stalker horse in the field and therefore the sure winner.
He based his theory off of the fact that a 90-1 career maiden went way too fast for his limited ability early in Justify second race so Mike Smith let that 90-1 go to the lead so when the horse predictably basically keels over on the track from exhaustion on the back stretch and Justify inherits the lead because he was the next horse up since the other 2 horses in the race also both career maidens were being saved for big stretch runs lol and in this guys mind that all proved Justify was the without a doubt top stalker style horse in the field.
Let’s ignore when in a Breeders cup race Mendelssohn stalked Breeders Cup quality horses than exploded in the stretch to win easy that doesn’t prove anything. The fact Justify passed a 90-1 career maiden after that horse almost passed out on the track is much more impressive lol.
Yeah the Justify hype is strong !!
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04-30-2018, 08:22 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Cmon, give me some real stuff, there is the search function, quote posts so I can see who it is, I have been here a long time, I know most people.
Or google search and link me a real article. Your the one making sound like "all" this hype from the Internet.
I am waiting.
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04-30-2018, 08:23 PM
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#69
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
is deja vu all over again
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To a lot of people this derby probably does seem like deja vu because the hype machine has them believing that they are not betting on Justify but rather the spirit and soul of American Pharoah which has possessed the body of Justify
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04-30-2018, 08:24 PM
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#70
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Cmon, give me some real stuff, there is the search function, quote posts so I can see who it is, I have been here a long time, I know most people.
Or google search and link me a real article. Your the one making sound like "all" this hype from the Internet.
I am waiting.
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Don’t worry I will do both
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04-30-2018, 08:56 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
I don't know about "measuring stick" but Bolt is the horse you're supposed to bet here... the exact same figures with a better narrative and he'd be vying for favoritism.... as it stands, his form is dressed down enough to throw some people off his scent
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I don't mind the "who did they beat" thing too much, it has a place in analysis, for me, more about how many horses of their crop they raced against and how many of those they beat. I mean, a horse can't be in *every* race.
Bolt d'Oro raced 54 horses and beat 50 of them.
Easy to do this for each horse in the field...it does yield some knowledge about how game a horse is, if they are a hard tryer, etc.
Then you have Magnum Moon and Justify....they beat everyone they raced, however, here's the problem: they raced the least amount of other horses than anyone in the entire derby field. i.e. not warriors, harder to figure them as a result.
(next in that category of "fewer horses raced against" would be hofburg, noble indy, and audible...only about 30-something other horses they raced against in their career).
It depends on if you think the "hard knockers" who have raced a lot of other horses and beat a lot of other horses are declining in form, already peaked, etc. OR you might want to look at the # they beat versus raced as a %. More horses you race the chances are your % of beating others is going to go down a tad
Look at some of the horses in the field in terms of # of horses they "battled": some have battled it out with a lot of other horses:
Flameaway raced 86, beat 72
Bravazo raced 80, beat 54
My Boy Jack raced 92, beat 74
Free Drop Billy raced 78, beat 63
Good Magic raced 52, beat 48
and so on. Not gonna do them all, but Mendelssohn and Enticed raced about 60+ others horses.
It gives a different perspective to see the warriors who have raced a lot of others, IMHO
Last edited by clicknow; 04-30-2018 at 09:01 PM.
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04-30-2018, 09:00 PM
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#72
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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Try googling speed figures, too - there is so much more to them than you could ever imagine!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-30-2018, 09:02 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I think Bolt D Oro and Good Magic are both similar horses, I just think Bolt is a tad more talented.
Someone mentioned that he only beat Zatter by a small margin, in a 7F sprint, that Baffert has won like 15 times. His trainer said he was only getting him where he wanted.
He won the next race by 7 in very fast time.
He lost the juvenile, to a couple nice horses, with a rough trip.
He then is tasked with trying to run down two baffert horses in races where he got literally no pace help yet almost one one of them and was only beaten a few lengths by a super talented colt.
If he trips out he can win this race.
I feel similar with Good Magic, I think there is a peak effort there with a trip he can win.
Both will be about 10+/1
I will use both and tri to beat Justify and cash the trifecta.
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04-30-2018, 09:21 PM
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#74
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
I don't mind the "who did they beat" thing too much, it has a place in analysis, for me, more about how many horses of their crop they raced against and how many of those they beat. I mean, a horse can't be in *every* race.
Bolt d'Oro raced 54 horses and beat 50 of them.
Easy to do this for each horse in the field...it does yield some knowledge about how game a horse is, if they are a hard tryer, etc.
Then you have Magnum Moon and Justify....they beat everyone they raced, however, here's the problem: they raced the least amount of other horses than anyone in the entire derby field. i.e. not warriors, harder to figure them as a result.
(next in that category of "fewer horses raced against" would be hofburg, noble indy, and audible...only about 30-something other horses they raced against in their career).
It depends on if you think the "hard knockers" who have raced a lot of other horses and beat a lot of other horses are declining in form, already peaked, etc. OR you might want to look at the # they beat versus raced as a %. More horses you race the chances are your % of beating others is going to go down a tad
Look at some of the horses in the field in terms of # of horses they "battled": some have battled it out with a lot of other horses:
Flameaway raced 86, beat 72
Bravazo raced 80, beat 54
My Boy Jack raced 92, beat 74
Free Drop Billy raced 78, beat 63
Good Magic raced 52, beat 48
and so on.
It gives a different perspective to see the warriors who have raced a lot of others, IMHO
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I will give you credit for pointing out that Justify has not raced against many horses but I want to point out one thing. I don’t know if it was intentional or not but you give the impression that Justify and Magnum Moon are fairly equal in not racing many horses but while the total number of horses faced by Magnun Moon is not a lot (31) it is more than double the number of horses Justify has faced which is a meager 14 and 11 of those 14 have never won a race other than maiden .
People laughed at Gronkowski and didn’t take his 4 race winning streak seriously because of the quality of horses he was beating ( and rightfully so ) yet if you compared the horses Gronkowski was beating with the horses Justify has been beating than Gronkowski competition was by far better. Yet Gronkowski was everybody’s first toss and Justify is the heavy favorite ?
I know all the fan boys will say but Justify beat bolt but if Bolt didn’t try to win than what does it count for ?
That hype machine is a powerful thing.
Free your mind best you can and honestly compare the resumes of Mendelssohn and Justify. Mendelssohn has beaten by far better horses in better races. Mendelssohn has been through the wars and raced in big rough and tumble fields. I am not a big pedigree guy but considering Mendelssohn was purchased as a yearling for 15x what Justify was 3 million vs 200,000 I am guessing his pedigree is also superior yet Justify deserves to be the favorite ?
What do you think Mendelssohn would have done to 5 horse fields of low level maiden type horses. What do you think Mendelssohn would have done to Bolt if he let Mendelssohn get a uncontested lead like that. Justify in his big prep runs one of the slowest times ever recorded and Mendelssohn breaks the track record by almost two seconds in his final prep and Justify ends up the favorite ?
Some deep pockets are going to be getting paid big time after Justify flops !!
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04-30-2018, 09:29 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Drive through the ghetto in any city in this country. Listen to the talk on the corners. Lone F, horseracing talk from the hood! The only hype machine is his own! This has to be the same azzhole that said Gemologist would win the TC!
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