Odds On Favorite Losers - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Molock · 12-10-2001, 01:33 AM

Simple question, but perhaps a multitude of possible answers:

Other than bad start, stumbles and other unforeseeables, what causes an odds on favorite horse to lose? How did so many people get it so wrong?

I've been trying to find one or two determining factors but have yet to come up with any. Any input would be wonderful (and most appreciated)!

FortuneHunter · 12-10-2001, 10:47 AM

I will take a non-scientific stab at the answer:

Horses have form cycles.

IMO, many losing odds-on favorites are horses that peaked last time out, and are on the way down. Also called the bounce. While some other horse in the race is peaking in the race.

We (www.handicappers-datamine.com) are trying to find the keys to form. Trying to determine which horse is "on the muscle", "ready to roll".

If you can determine if the odds-on favorite is going to "bounce", you can use that advantage to make money.

Good Luck, FH

sq764 · 12-10-2001, 12:47 PM

I meant to post this reply, but it got wiped out..

I think the reason a lot of odds on favorites lose is because the public overbets certain jockeys and trainers. And most of all, they overbet horses dropping in class, even if they show horrendous form. I like a class dropper if a horse even shows something, but if they show absolutely nothing in their previous races, they will have to beat me. I will not lose money on them..

Scott

boxcar · 12-10-2001, 01:14 PM

FortuneHunter wrote:
>>
I will take a non-scientific stab at the answer:

Horses have form cycles.

IMO, many losing odds-on favorites are horses that peaked last time out, and are on the way down. Also called the bounce. While some other horse in the race is peaking in the race.
>>

Your take may not be as unscientific as you think. I have long considered the Form Factor to be the gateway to big profits, simply because the average fan understands little about the "mysteries" of Form. This factor has many twists, turns and subtelties to it, and these demand a good deal of time and study before one can hope to take advantage of them. The following case history may represent an excellent case in point.

Recently I just completed a study whereby I was "deep profiling" one of my favorite performance angles. After analyzing nearly 800 races, the angle produced 66 winners from a pool of 485 potential plays. I then split the winners up into two broad categories: Category "A" consxited of winners whose LR.SR >= 2RB.SR, while Category "B" were all other winners (LR.SR < 2RB.SR). I was really astounded by the results, even though I have for a long time suspected that category "A" types would outperform the "Bs" in the average mutuel department. I just didn't think the margin would be so wide! Here is how the categories stacked up:

Category "A" produced 39 winners for a gross return of $938.50 ($24.06 average mutel).

"B" produced 27 winners for a gross return of $498 ($18.17 average mutuel).

One would logically think that horses who "regressed" in form in their last races would, generally, turn off bettors and, thus, be sent off at higher prices. But in this admittedly modest sampling, this was hardly the case! But even though the sampling is relatively small, nonethess I do suspect that improving horses (at least with this particular angle in their pp chart) will continue to outperform the "regressers" in both departments. Obviously, the public has much to learn about analyzing form cycles.

Boxcar

ranchwest · 12-10-2001, 01:21 PM

People are looking for the perfect horse. They want earnings, high speed ratings, early speed, good form, class, good trainer, good jockey, etc. While these things do count, especially in higher class races, not every winner is going to be an amalgum of all of these factors. It appears to me that the public handicaps every race the same way, never looking for the subtleties that will indicate an upset.

GR1@HTR · 12-10-2001, 01:35 PM

Well, my guess is the so simple it may not make any sense at all...
"It is a horse race"...and anything can happen in a horse race...Unfortunately.

GR1@HTR · 12-10-2001, 04:32 PM

Ok, now for my technical answer...Small sample here..

Non Maiden Races
Off odds <=1
MLO favorite
488/1038
47.01%
-20.39 ROI

Non Maiden Races
Off Odds<=1
NOT MLO Favorite
52/145
35.86%
-36.90 ROI

Mr. MLO guy is pretty smart buggar...

JimG · 12-10-2001, 05:07 PM

Nothing scientific here...just observation and guessing. First of all, most odds-on favorites look to good to be true and are generally coming off a big race or are a big class dropper. In either case, the horse may not be fit for a good race due to soreness or major problems.

I have seen other odds-on horses lose when jockeys will ride them as if much the best...in other words pushing a hot pace from 3 wide, etc. I think the trainer must have said...just keep him out of trouble and he'll win. That can result in major ground loss in a race.

Usually the crowd makes the best horse on paper odds-on, but as we know the best horse on paper loses more than wins. Another thing that always interested me is when an odds-on favorite wins by less than a length...and I have noticed it happens alot. Probably a case of a horse being 90% but still good enough. I usually have the other horse <g>

Slider · 12-10-2001, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by shanemooney
Simple question, but perhaps a multitude of possible answers:

Other than bad start, stumbles and other unforeseeables, what causes an odds on favorite horse to lose? How did so many people get it so wrong?

I've been trying to find one or two determining factors but have yet to come up with any. Any input would be wonderful (and most appreciated)!

=======================================
My answer is because many races are not handicappable. Many of these odds on favorites are doing something different in today's race. Example: changing surface, changing distances, big class changes like going from maiden to NW allowance races, the pace of the race is chaos, etc.

Slider

Dave Schwartz · 12-10-2001, 06:11 PM

I think FH has it right... Form is the key.

Most odds-on horses are horses with a big class edge and often they are of questionable form, especially in lower-classed races.

An interesting query to run would be to look at the difference between low level races and (say) graded stakes. I'd think the loss might be higher in the lower classes.

Dave Schwartz

Molock · 12-10-2001, 07:18 PM

Okay, now it gets tougher:

Is there a quick and easy way (as if such a thing existed in horse racing) to see if the odds on favorite won't even place? Do we look for confirmation from the ML guy or do we have to resort to form? Or is it far more complicated than that and we need to analyze whether it's a class dropper, whether the last race was an aberration, etc?

GR1@HTR · 12-11-2001, 12:39 AM

Off Odds 1-1 or less
#1 Speed fig (Quirin) from last race
531/1019
52.11%
-12.39ROI

Off odds 1-1 or less
#2 Speed fig from last race
350/1393
43.71%
-24.49

Off odds 1-1 or less
#3 or worse speed fig
148/388
38.14%
-33.15 ROI

GR1@HTR · 12-11-2001, 12:52 AM

Getting late so here is the readers digest version...Note: Small sample

Off odds 1-1 or less

Graded Stakes (G1, G2, G3)
44.12%

Undgraded Stakes
42.14%

Claiming
43.79%

MSW
56.30%

Md CLM
46.98%

Molock · 12-11-2001, 02:14 AM

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but if I understand these figures correctly, the odds on favorites win less than (or abouts) 50% of the time? Wow, I thought it was a lot more.

ranchwest · 12-11-2001, 06:57 AM

Shane,

Most people here either don't play odds on horses or play them into exotics, such as Pick 3's. A lot of people consider them pass races (or big opportunities for playing another horse(s)). You have to be very selective to make a profit, hitting an extremely high percent.