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05-11-2017, 10:48 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Betting Strategy: Always Dreaming
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.
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05-11-2017, 11:07 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
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I think I'll bet a trifecta with the fave not on it and hope for the best.
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05-11-2017, 11:10 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.
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If you really believe this, why don't you just bet the super horse to win.... 3/5 on something that is 100% is free money... No?
Or maybe 3/5 or even 1/1 is an underlay... Just something to ponder
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05-11-2017, 11:11 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Arkansas
Posts: 95
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Key on top in an exacta with some prices.
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05-11-2017, 11:40 AM
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#5
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,517
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If AD is anywhere near 3/5, I'll be shocked.
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05-11-2017, 11:57 AM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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boring answer = pass, unless you find a longshot in a multi race (and then use as a slight multiplier), or unless he is higher than your minimum win odds (eg "even money").
fun answer = bet him big to win , and throw a few small tickets together involving long shots underneath in a superfecta or trifecta.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-11-2017, 01:45 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 222
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I have an interesting analysis. This is just preliminary, but I think it bears some thinking. Along with using the Caris Method, I also use internal fractions, exploring not only each Quarter a horse ran, but each 1/8th of a mile. I came up with some interesting numbers. First, using the first method, only Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee qualify for the Preakness. Considering that Classic Empire had a terrible trip and ran on well, I will include him in my exotics. Lookin At Lee seems to be an interesting standout.
I calculated AD, Lookin at Lee and CE's 1/8th mile from start to finish and found that Lookin at Lee scored under 13 seconds from the 5F mark to the finish. His 1/8th fractions were:
10.75 12.46 12.98 12.51 12.98 with a final 1/8th of 13.46. He was also, the only horse down the stretch to gain on AD.
AD came in with fractions of
10.64 13.6 13.12 12.63 13.12 13.6
CE
10.13 14.05 13.31 12.55 13.31 14.05
These numbers may be off a bit. I've been working on them since, this morning. Feel free to correct me. Of the horses from the Derby entered in the Preakness, only Lookin at Lee was actually gaining lengths. However, as Classic Empire was bumped off in the stretch and had to readjust, he gets an excuse. Overall, I'd say these are your big three.
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05-11-2017, 01:55 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,546
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard02
I have an interesting analysis. This is just preliminary, but I think it bears some thinking. Along with using the Caris Method, I also use internal fractions, exploring not only each Quarter a horse ran, but each 1/8th of a mile. I came up with some interesting numbers. First, using the first method, only Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee qualify for the Preakness. Considering that Classic Empire had a terrible trip and ran on well, I will include him in my exotics. Lookin At Lee seems to be an interesting standout.
I calculated AD, Lookin at Lee and CE's 1/8th mile from start to finish and found that Lookin at Lee scored under 13 seconds from the 5F mark to the finish. His 1/8th fractions were:
10.75 12.46 12.98 12.51 12.98 with a final 1/8th of 13.46. He was also, the only horse down the stretch to gain on AD.
AD came in with fractions of
10.64 13.6 13.12 12.63 13.12 13.6
CE
10.13 14.05 13.31 12.55 13.31 14.05
These numbers may be off a bit. I've been working on them since, this morning. Feel free to correct me. Of the horses from the Derby entered in the Preakness, only Lookin at Lee was actually gaining lengths. However, as Classic Empire was bumped off in the stretch and had to readjust, he gets an excuse. Overall, I'd say these are your big three.
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The Derby was on an off track...and at a distance which these horses will probably never negotiate again.Why use THAT race as the "common denominator" in determining the ability of these horses...instead of using a prior, more comparable race?
__________________
Live to play another day.
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05-11-2017, 01:56 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
If you really believe this, why don't you just bet the super horse to win.... 3/5 on something that is 100% is free money... No?
Or maybe 3/5 or even 1/1 is an underlay... Just something to ponder
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I never said 100% im like 70%
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05-11-2017, 01:57 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
If AD is anywhere near 3/5, I'll be shocked.
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what are you thinking? more or less?
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05-11-2017, 02:02 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Maybe put about half your bankroll in the win pool (and perhaps a little place pool insurance) and the other half in the exotics including a couple horizontals. At worst, you blow the gimmicks but get your money back in the WP pools. It's a free shot at the P4 and superfecta.
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05-11-2017, 02:58 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 222
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Good point. I'm calculating their other races as we speak.
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05-11-2017, 03:20 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1
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Key AD in a Pick 4, 5 or 6 ticket and hope it's bombs away in the preliminary races.
Also like others said, bombs away underneath AD for the exotics in the feature.
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05-11-2017, 04:59 PM
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#14
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
So lets say your in the camp that Always Dreaming will win the Preakness as I am. (granted I didnt think he'd win the derby so what the hell do I know) Anyway, what do you think is the best way to bet that assuming odds around 4/5 or 3/5? On top in exotics? Preakness is so hard to make money on when betting the Derby winner.
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If I bet him it will have to be to win 
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05-12-2017, 09:26 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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I believe Always Dreaming will be the favorite, but that Classic Empire will be a close second choice. Given the chart notes
CLASSIC EMPIRE bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when bumped and carried out mid stretch, regrouped and churned on.
I'm not ready to concede on a fair track Classic Empire would not be the better horse.
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