Omar’s look at Laurel r11 10-14-23

[omar2]

No pp’s or any computer #’s of any kind necessary.

I started off looking at the double ratios between the doubles and morning line first. If I see something unusual (and I did) then I look further, otherwise on to another race. First I noticed that the #’s 1-2 and 7 were all 6 ratios. Two short doubles and a large one. ??. The 3 was a 10 ratio. The other odd thing was the 3 was 20-1 ml while the 7 was 30-1 ml. Tells me the 7 took $$ in the doubles.
Checking the exacta board I see there was only a $5 difference between the 1-7. No no no no that should not be (5-1 vs 36-1). That confirms my belief that 7 was a live horse on the board!
True the 1 beat out the 7 but after bothering horse down the stretch. So after jockey objection, 7 was placed first. Even if he remained second, $22.80 to place is great. I know players who would sell their soul for a win price like that.
Trust me, the horses I bet warrant win-place bets and sometimes show also.
Omar

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
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[Saratoga]

Originally Posted by omar2

No pp’s or any computer #’s of any kind necessary.

I started off looking at the double ratios between the doubles and morning line first. If I see something unusual (and I did) then I look further, otherwise on to another race. First I noticed that the #’s 1-2 and 7 were all 6 ratios. Two short doubles and a large one. ??. The 3 was a 10 ratio. The other odd thing was the 3 was 20-1 ml while the 7 was 30-1 ml. Tells me the 7 took $$ in the doubles.
Checking the exacta board I see there was only a $5 difference between the 1-7. No no no no that should not be (5-1 vs 36-1). That confirms my belief that 7 was a live horse on the board!
True the 1 beat out the 7 but after bothering horse down the stretch. So after jockey objection, 7 was placed first. Even if he remained second, $22.80 to place is great. I know players who would sell their soul for a win price like that.
Trust me, the horses I bet warrant win-place bets and sometimes show also.
Omar

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697376115
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Why are links invalid?

[omar2]

I don’t know I’ll try again

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[omar2]

Notified administrator

[Robert Fischer]

I am interested in your work here.

Will do very similar analysis as well, but happen to use as a factor/model for 'odds projection'.

It seems you are using it as a near standalone model for wagering decisions?
Seems really cool and potentially a powerful simplicity thing...

Question for you about your ratios.
- Are these referencing an 'odds' thing directly?.., or are the numbers '6 ratio', ... '10 ratio'... proprietary ratio names/'types'??

thanks

Originally Posted by omar2

First I noticed that the #’s 1-2 and 7 were all 6 ratios. Two short doubles and a large one. ??. The 3 was a 10 ratio.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm just happy to see omar posting again...glad to see you are recovering from your ordeal.

[soflant]

Originally Posted by omar2

No pp’s or any computer #’s of any kind necessary.

I started off looking at the double ratios between the doubles and morning line first. If I see something unusual (and I did) then I look further, otherwise on to another race. First I noticed that the #’s 1-2 and 7 were all 6 ratios. Two short doubles and a large one. ??. The 3 was a 10 ratio. The other odd thing was the 3 was 20-1 ml while the 7 was 30-1 ml. Tells me the 7 took $$ in the doubles.
Checking the exacta board I see there was only a $5 difference between the 1-7. No no no no that should not be (5-1 vs 36-1). That confirms my belief that 7 was a live horse on the board!
True the 1 beat out the 7 but after bothering horse down the stretch. So after jockey objection, 7 was placed first. Even if he remained second, $22.80 to place is great. I know players who would sell their soul for a win price like that.
Trust me, the horses I bet warrant win-place bets and sometimes show also.
Omar

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697375899
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697376115
http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1697376115

Hi Omar2-- I am sorry but can you explain what you mean by ratios? Also I have always heard about the 'will pays' giving clues if a horse is 'live' on the board. I am always puzzled how the 'will pays' show if a horse is receiving money. Thanks for all your help in advance

[omar2]

U divide the ml of horse into his will pay double. Eg. 3-1, will pay $21. 3/21 is 7. Anything under .6 I round down, otherwise round up.
I use a variation of Al Illich’s method (how to win at horse racing, 1979).
He discards the 2 low doubles and looks for a horse that’s 4 points lower than the others. See chapter 19 in his book.
I use a variation of his method that I explained on paceandcap.
I believe this was laurel 9/30 r5.
Believe me, I don’t even look at the pp’s because if you did u would not want to play the horse.
Remember horses that go off at huge prices are not supposed to look good!

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[omar2]

LRl r11 10-14-23 screen shots:

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[omar2]

When I refer to “ratios” all I’m doing is dividing the horses morning line (ml) into the will pay daily double payouts in the race I happen to be looking at. Al Illich called it proportionate odds (po). My buddy who showed me the method called it the ratio system.
What I like to do is start by looking at the two shortest double payouts, and looking at their ratios. Next I check the rest of the field to see if there are any lower ratios than either of the 2 shortest doubles. If I do find them then I got to
assume that somebody is betting the horse and then I’ll cross check the exactas starting with the horse that exhibits the lowest exacta payoffs across, usually the race favorite, and see who’s taking the money there. When I see the same horse taking money in both I’ll bet him if his odds are right. For me 7-1 and up. If the horse will blow up the toteboard and you play exactas, you better wheel him up and down or you may have trouble sitting on your backside later on.
Just go over my example races.
At days end if you see a big price in the results, run the method to see if you woulda made the horse. Practice makes perfect.
Omar