Layoff Angle

[goforgin]

Checking to see if anyone has a good layoff angle that they wouldn't mind sharing? Looking at a horse's first start coming off say a 90 or 180-day layoff. Looking for about 3 to 4 rules to follow. For example, trainer has a certain win percentage with layoff horses, or horse was in the money in first race back after a previous layoff in the PP's. I've done some reading on the subject, but didn't know if anyone on the board has had some success with any of what I've read or perhaps a home-grown angle?
Thx GoForGin.

[andymays]

If you look at the workout pattern and the first work (oldest workout) in the set of 5 is short and slow like 3f 38h and then the workouts get progressively longer and faster then the horse might need one.

If the first work (oldest work) is something like 5f 1:00 then the horse is probably pretty fit already and is more likely to fire off the layoff.

That's just a guideline though. We saw one come back on Preakness day where the workouts told you nothing.

[Hanover1]

3rd start back off layoff is an often overlooked angle.......

[GaryG]

If you follow only a few tracks you can get to know the winning patterns of the various trainers. Most work on a 6-8 day pattern, but Bob Tiller at Woodbine, a top layoff trainer, uses works 9-10 days apart with the last work 7-10 days prior to the race.

[WaHoo]

I like a horse that has had 3 workouts in the last 20 days or less, i do like to see them improve their time from each w/o from 3rd w/o and really like to see their last w/o 5 furlongs

[JohnGalt1]

One secondary thing I do with a horse off a long lay off -- 6+ months -- is look up the sire's rating for first time starters. A long lay off is similar to a first start. If Sire Stats rates the sire as an A or B I will be more likely to consider than a D or F.

Primarily I look at work outs, trainer pct., and races after similar lay offs to see if the horse will be competitive with the field.

[lamboguy]

if you are looking at horses that are 6 yo and upwards that have not run in 6 or more months, don't ever bet the horse until he has run a good second or win no matter how good his prior form was or how great he worked.

[andymays]

To give you an example, tomorrow at Hollywood Park in the second race the #7 Tequila Blues last raced on September 12th of 2009 at Fairplex park and finished 4th for Trainer Stacy Young. Thursay he is coming back for Craig Lewis. There are six workouts in the set showing and the oldest is on April 9th where he went 5f in 1:00 3/5 handily (a work like that usually means he is already fairly fit and has worked unofficially elsewhere). After that he had a 4f 46 and change and then 4 consecutive 6f workouts one of which was 6f in 1:12 and change handily from the gate. This horse has also been gelded since his last.

One of the workout comments from a clocker I use says:

Moved pretty well throughout while never being asked. Finished up fairly strong in 24 3/5 while appearing to have something left in reserve.


It's a pretty good bet that this one is going to fire his best shot off the layoff.

[cnollfan]

Maiden Special Weight race or high-priced Maiden Claiming, lightly raced, long layoff. Longer the better. Best if horse took some betting action in previous race(s) versus a big field.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Hanover1

3rd start back off layoff is an often overlooked angle.......

I'm a huge fan of this, especially if it looked like the horse was 'freshened' the right way (as opposed to a forced freshening) and he seems to have two 'even' efforts. A horse like that could be ready to peak 3rd time off the layoff.

[WaHoo]

cdx0520 3rd race mds turf

#4 Ballet Rouse 10:1 off 182 days, has had 3 w/o in last 20 days and has had 7 w/o since apr8 and worked out every 6 days. the last 4 w/o were 5furlongs. has regressed some on time. has had 3 turf races, switching distance Shorter.
I'll watch the odds if they stay around 9:1 or 10:1 will think it's a play and if odds go way up, i'll watch the exacta payoffs to see if she has a payoff of Less than $100 dollars to any horses Except the 2 lowest odds horses, if there's no exactas payouts under $100 i won't play the horse in a exacta. I want someone betting on this horse somewhere. odds, exacta, pick3.

[HPFridays]

Originally Posted by andymays

To give you an example, tomorrow at Hollywood Park in the second race the #7 Tequila Blues last raced on September 12th of 2009 at Fairplex park and finished 4th for Trainer Stacy Young. Thursay he is coming back for Craig Lewis. There are six workouts in the set showing and the oldest is on April 9th where he went 5f in 1:00 3/5 handily (a work like that usually means he is already fairly fit and has worked unofficially elsewhere). After that he had a 4f 46 and change and then 4 consecutive 6f workouts one of which was 6f in 1:12 and change handily from the gate. This horse has also been gelded since his last.

One of the workout comments from a clocker I use says:

Moved pretty well throughout while never being asked. Finished up fairly strong in 24 3/5 while appearing to have something left in reserve.


It's a pretty good bet that this one is going to fire his best shot off the layoff.

I agree, Tequila Blues certainly looks live with this group.

[PhantomOnTour]

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

My pet angle is a well bet 2yr old who ran badly in his debut and then gets laid up. Bet him on his return at age 3 if he's been working regularly.

A grow up play!

You can get some drastic improvements from the time a 2yo runs in July and then is layed off and comes back in January or February.

[Light]

Originally Posted by goforgin

Checking to see if anyone has a good layoff angle that they wouldn't mind sharing?

Yeah,I have one. Don't bet them.