Guess the ML, Belmont Park, Race 2, Sept 19th

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

1 Cat Man Fu ..........15-1
2 Royal Posse...........8-1
3 Maximus Mike........5-2
4 Master Yank.......... 5-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-2
6 It Matters.............20-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................12-1

Since you've made more than 15,000 posts and posted about countless races, you'd think you'd know morning lines don't have co-favorites. There might be a 2-1 and 5-2, or 5-2 and 3-1, but there aren't co-favorites in a morning line.

Other than that, your usual brilliant insight.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Since you've made more than 15,000 posts and posted about countless races, you'd think you'd know morning lines don't have co-favorites. There might be a 2-1 and 5-2, or 5-2 and 3-1, but there aren't co-favorites in a morning line.

Other than that, your usual brilliant insight.

When i saw your name as responding to this thread, i asked myself "i wonder if this guy has anything nice to say or anything constructive to add or even added his OWN morning line (you know, since that's what the thread is about)" Than i did the little LOL thing in my head and knew the answer right away.

Thanks for the education about the Morning line, next time i put up a thread trying to guess what the track ML maker will do (as opposed to just guessing what each horse might go off at) i'll take your advice under consideration.

[stu]

Just a reminder folks - linemakers are encouraged to follow a formula to account for takeout and breakage effects on the odds. The formula is that the line should total to 100% plus the track takeout rate plus a percentage point for each horse/betting interest in the field.

In this exercise, a good line should total to 124% (100%+16%+8%). The submitted lines so far total to 111%, 118%, and 130%

[horses4courses]

Fun exercise
Here goes nothing.

Cat Man Fu 20

Royal Posse 7-2

Maximus Mike 7

Master Yank 5-2

Strueve's Star 3

It Matters 10

Ice Wagon 7

Q Two 7

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by stu

Just a reminder folks - linemakers are encouraged to follow a formula to account for takeout and breakage effects on the odds. The formula is that the line should total to 100% plus the track takeout rate plus a percentage point for each horse/betting interest in the field.

Could you please do me a favor, and try telling that to Jon White?

[Ocala Mike]

A peculiarity I've noticed at NYRA (and many other tracks) is that the M/L handicapper avoides making horses 7/1, 9/1, 11/1, etc.

The usual progression is 3, 7/2, 4, 9/2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 20.

Not sure why; just a hallowed tradition?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

A peculiarity I've noticed at NYRA (and many other tracks) is that the M/L handicapper avoides making horses 7/1, 9/1, 11/1, etc.

The usual progression is 3, 7/2, 4, 9/2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 20.

Not sure why; just a hallowed tradition?

I've noticed that too, and don't agree with it.

If a price can be shown on the odds board,
there is no reason that it can't be listed in the M/L.
NYRA is not alone in doing this - to my knowledge it's every track in the US.
Old habits die hard.

I have 3 horses listed at 7-1 in my fantasy line.
They are all in the region of 6-1, or 8-1, for me.
Why not use the price that works best?

[Aner]

Never made a ML before, but I'll play along:


1 Cat Man Fu ..........20-1
2 Royal Posse...........15-1
3 Maximus Mike........8-1
4 Master Yank.......... 2-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-1
6 It Matters.............10-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 4-1
8 Q Two .................10-1

[Stillriledup]

I must not know the game all that well, all you guys have this Yank horse as the favorite, i may have to go back to Morning Line school!

[stu]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

A peculiarity I've noticed at NYRA (and many other tracks) is that the M/L handicapper avoides making horses 7/1, 9/1, 11/1, etc.

The usual progression is 3, 7/2, 4, 9/2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 20.

Not sure why; just a hallowed tradition?

In the first week that I was paid to make a ML, I made a horse 7-1 in order to keep the points in the guidelines and I was chided by trainers, owners, agents and co-workers. I was told that the line should only include certain numbers. I don't know why either but it is tradition. Your numbers plus 30, 50, 99.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by stu

In the first week that I was paid to make a ML, I made a horse 7-1 in order to keep the points in the guidelines and I was chided by trainers, owners, agents and co-workers. I was told that the line should only include certain numbers. I don't know why either but it is tradition. Your numbers plus 30, 50, 99.

It really matters to them that much that only certain traditional numbers can be used?
Sounds pretty anal retentive to me.

I mean, I can see where after 12-1, you would next go up to 15, 20-1, and so on,
but there is no reason that I can fathom why you could not use 7, or 9-1.
Seems ridiculous.

After all, 7 and 9-1 have at least as much relevance as 6 and 8-1.

[Ocala Mike]

I could be all wet on this, but maybe it's a US tradition only. I want to say I've seen horses listed at 7/1 (not sure about 9/1) at Woodbine, either flat, harness or both.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I could be all wet on this, but maybe it's a US tradition only. I want to say I've seen horses listed at 7/1 (not sure about 9/1) at Woodbine, either flat, harness or both.

I think that's right, i know Canada is of the 7's and 9s

Off the top of my head, i can't think of a US track that uses 7s and 9s as ML prices.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

I dont see how Fast Anna goes off over 6-5. A decent 2nd in a G1 at Saratoga.... The public will crush this horse. Maybe even lower then 6-5. Not saying I like him, actually I think Im tossing him.
One comment about your ML.... 12-1 on Camden St?? Did you look at the pps? How is he not 99-1?

ML guy made Camden St 12-1

He's not 99-1 because he's long to short, turf to dirt, has good breeding and appears to have talent. And, there's always the shot he can be the farthest back closer in a race that "Falls apart". Everyone else is a speed horse or stalker...if this horse just happens to be a main track closing sprinter who was mistakenly put on the turf in routes, he can run past em all if the race falls apart.

[Ocala Mike]

Yes, our neighbors to the north don't abide by the US tradition. Found this for Lethbridge (Alberta?), 9/14:


# Horse Odds Jockey Wgt A/S M/E Trainer
1 General Gabe (ON) 8/5 Tyler Walker 120 8 G Pete Dubois
2 Swift Time (AB) 12/1 Danielle DiBert 120 4 F Lorne Webb
3 Promiscuous Lad (OR) 5/2 Trevor Simpson 120 7 G Pat Goruk
4 Maputo (CA) 12/1 Vincent Alvin Palmer 120 7 G Harlan Bird Rattler
5 Withdrawal (ON) 7/1 Tori Gandia 120 6 G Robert Charles Smith
6 Golden Chapel (KY) 5/1 Phillip Clunis 120 8 G Buddy Bensmiller
7 Eighty Eight (WA) 9/1 Kaylan McCarty 120 8 G o Rusty Smith
8 Pup (KY) 3/1 Blandford Stewart 120 6 G Elaine Edwards