Stock Market Prediction

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

OK so there are some REITs buying houses.

Invitation homes is the one I think you’re referring to (sorry nothing you or Russell Brand had to say was specific at all). Invitation homes is spawned from Blackrock and it’s one of the two heavy hitters in the REIT single family house space. It owns about 80,000 houses. There are about 100,000,000 houses in the US. So this entity owns less than a tenth of a percent. In no way is it a recent development or has it went on a COVID spending spree. It began buying houses over a decade ago. And often the homes are bought in giant blocks from other large landlord entities. 1,500-1,600 houses in one deal is not uncommon.

So the idea that they only started buying one house at a time in the last 24 months and are running people out of their homes is not true.

44% of all homes have always been rented, it’s a pretty stable number. What is a reasonable argument is that the 44% is being consolidated. Much the same way the mom and pop stores or restaurants are replaced by Target, Wal Mart and Chili’s I think the same thing is happening here.

Okay, let me ask you a reasonable question. When you heard during the heart of the pandemic, that the housing market was doing so well, did that make logical sense to you? HD & LOW with strong years made more sense to me. The articles I've read said that REIT's have made up to 15 to 25% of the single-family purchases in some cities in this time period.

REITs losing commercial renters and empty buildings made sense to me. I just visited SF two months ago, and my nephew told me that whole blocks of super high rent buildings were still sitting empty. We saw it, and another strange thing happened, which he reported. The homeless population has moved out at the same time. We saw it. Unintended consequences I suppose.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And because of that, I think we retrace back to the 4500-4550 level on the S&P and test the 100 day moving average. I also think this happens before we see any movement below 4214.

Oh look...the S&P futures hit 4500 yesterday...I pretty much ****ing nailed it I guess.

Next step is the 100 day moving average which currently sits around 4555 on the futures.

You're welcome.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Oh look...the S&P futures hit 4500 yesterday...I pretty much ****ing nailed it I guess.

Next step is the 100 day moving average which currently sits around 4555 on the futures.

You're welcome.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Okay, let me ask you a reasonable question. When you heard during the heart of the pandemic, that the housing market was doing so well, did that make logical sense to you? HD & LOW with strong years made more sense to me. The articles I've read said that REIT's have made up to 15 to 25% of the single-family purchases in some cities in this time period.

REITs losing commercial renters and empty buildings made sense to me. I just visited SF two months ago, and my nephew told me that whole blocks of super high rent buildings were still sitting empty. We saw it, and another strange thing happened, which he reported. The homeless population has moved out at the same time. We saw it. Unintended consequences I suppose.

At first it was a little odd to me that real estate was so hot during the Pandemic. But when you consider how low interest rates have been and how much money was injected into the economy it makes some sense. I’ve also been told by Real Estate agents I trust that during the pandemic many people just didn’t want to go through the hassle of moving. So the normal amount of houses listed for sale was shrunk. Supply chain and labor shortages have also limited the new home builders severally. All this leads to a lack of inventory.

The amount being bought by REITs is not alarming to me at all. I’d bet 15-25% of home sales during times of rising prices has always been investors of some type. Maybe before it was smaller investors and now it’s Wall Street REITs but it’s always been there.

[lamboguy]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-...more_headlines


no matter what party they claim to be from, or whether they are conservative or liberal, they all wind up the same cashier's window with your money.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-...more_headlines


no matter what party they claim to be from, or whether they are conservative or liberal, they all wind up the same cashier's window with your money.

Look at these ****ing clowns. The top four (all of whom I've NEVER HEARD OF) traded at LEAST $40M worth of stocks EACH in 2021.

They put Nancy Pelosi's $12M to shame.

Where the **** do they get all this money?

Tell me this country isn't CORRUPT to its VERY CORE?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Look at these ****ing clowns. The top four (all of whom I've NEVER HEARD OF) traded at LEAST $40M worth of stocks EACH in 2021.

They put Nancy Pelosi's $12M to shame.

Where the **** do they get all this money?

Tell me this country isn't CORRUPT to its VERY CORE?

to tell you the truth, i never heard of any of these guys either.

[PaceAdvantage]

Guess what? S&P futures just hit the 4554 mark in after hours....you're welcome again

I completely ****ing nailed it in only two trading days:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Today was the 4th dead count bounce, by my chart.

Not only that, today it actually closed ABOVE the 200 day moving average for the first time since losing that support level on 1/21.

Not only that, that huge turnaround on January 24 was the biggest volume day since 2/28/20, the beginning of the pandemic plunge.

2/28/20 was also a rebound day (not as impressive as the one 4 days ago, mind you), and the market subsequently closed above the 200 day MA the next day (2/29/20)...and closed above it again two days later....but then turned around and plunged another 800+ points on the S&P (or over 20% drop) before finally hitting bottom on March 23, 2020.

What does this all mean? Not a whole lot. What's happening now is nothing like what happened in 2020.

And because of that, I think we retrace back to the 4500-4550 level on the S&P and test the 100 day moving average. I also think this happens before we see any movement below 4214.

(PS. I'm looking at a daily chart of the S&P futures...doesn't matter though...they are all basically the same when it comes to the S&P and chart formations).

So I kind of disagree that MONDAY = PAIN.

[lamboguy]

https://monetary-metals.s3.us-east-1...2%20Report.pdf

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Oh look...the S&P futures hit 4500 yesterday...

Next step is the 100 day moving average which currently sits around 4555 on the futures.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Guess what? S&P futures just hit the 4554 mark in after hours....nailed it in only two trading days:

Nice calls....I'll be following you for a bit.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nice calls....I'll be following you for a bit.

Don't get too close....

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

https://monetary-metals.s3.us-east-1...2%20Report.pdf

Thanks for the link.

What causes Gold prices to move, up or down?

Why should a person buy gold?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nice calls....I'll be following you for a bit.

Thanks...notice how it is now bumping into the 100day and moving nowhere at the moment.

This is a very crucial point. The market has already retraced more than 50% of the recent down move and is now hitting 100 day resistance.

This entire up move the last three days has been on decreasing volume, which really doesn't mean all that much, but it is an interesting observation.

Tomorrow will be a key day. If it closes above the 100 day on increased volume, then LOOK OUT ABOVE. However, that's not the only way it can go higher...this can also take several days, as I think this market is due for a breather...so volatility and range could start to retract and we could hang around this area for a little while.

I think the only QUICK move would be if it decides it can't close above the 100day moving average...and it turns right around and dies a quick death.

Like I said, the market in my opinion is in a very crucial area and can really go either way, so best to sit back and just wait and see how it acts around this area and whether or not it can close above the 100day MA.

And again, if this market is indeed headed towards lower lows in the near future, it will happen swiftly...compared to higher highs, which should take much longer from this point on....given that, the longer price meanders around the 100d MA, the more likely it will only go higher...IMO.

[Rex Phinney]

I’ll keep selling. Piles of cash look pretty good right now.

The January “dip” is just the beginning

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

Thanks for the link.

What causes Gold prices to move, up or down?

Why should a person buy gold?

i really don't have that answer. i was looking at the least obvious and contrarian point for gold miners to turn north.. i came up with the day Powell announces the first rate increase.

a person buys gold if they have a lack of trust in governments throughout the world. i look at the leaders throughout the G7 worldwide. XI Jinping, Putin, Suga, Macron, Merkel, Draghi, Trudeau, and finally the main man Biden.

look at all these faces, if you believe or want to trust these characters with your wellbeing, then you have no use for gold. personally, i hope i never want to have to rely on gold to get me through possible rough waters, i just want to have it in case this world remains in high tide.