Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess nobody saw this coming....

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I guess nobody saw this coming....

I would think this would have already been priced into the market, but maybe big firms can't just dump all their stocks without killing their prices. So they wait for bear market rallies to sell off their stocks. That would account for a lot of the volatility.

But what are 10 million people going to do when they're out of work?

Back in the depression bootleggers could make and sell whisky. They just had to avoid the Revenuers. But now you can't leave your house. How is the underground economy going to function if people can't meet up with customers?

[highernote]

So I was watching the SP500 futures overnight. All night long the futures were up. Then as it approached the opening bell it started dropping and went to -16 with about a minute to go. I kept hitting refresh it every time I hit it it gained a couple points ... -13, -12, -9. Then the market opened and it opened down 114 points. Then jumped to -14 again after I hit refresh. Now two minutes into the day it is up a couple points.

How do you trade the SP500 futures with that kind of minute by minute action?
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edit

Yahoo finance says the SP500 opened at 2458. Unless they reported false data after I refreshed at the opening, the SP500 actually opened at 2350 and then jumped back up a second later. How do you know what data to believe?

[lamboguy]

you will never be able to buy more goods and services than you can TODAY. if you can get your head wrapped around that, you will be able to develop some inclination as to where things are headed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by highernote

So I was watching the SP500 futures overnight. All night long the futures were up. Then as it approached the opening bell it started dropping and went to -16 with about a minute to go. I kept hitting refresh it every time I hit it it gained a couple points ... -13, -12, -9. Then the market opened and it opened down 114 points. Then jumped to -14 again after I hit refresh. Now two minutes into the day it is up a couple points.

How do you trade the SP500 futures with that kind of minute by minute action?
---------

edit

Yahoo finance says the SP500 opened at 2458. Unless they reported false data after I refreshed at the opening, the SP500 actually opened at 2350 and then jumped back up a second later. How do you know what data to believe?

You are working with delayed data obviously....there were no untradable jumps like that...it was moving fast, but there were no gaps....

And I trade using a tick chart...lol

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You are working with delayed data obviously....there were no untradable jumps like that...it was moving fast, but there were no gaps....

And I trade using a tick chart...lol

I figured it could have been a data glitch. I see glitches all the time in the way yahoo stock data is displayed.

[highernote]

Scientists from the University of Pittsburgh claims they have created a vaccine for covid-19 and are trying to get its approval fast-tracked.

If true, is it time to go long in the market?

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https://www.salemnews.net/news/local...id-19-vaccine/

PITTSBURGH — UPMC physicians announced Thursday that the center has developed a COVID-19 vaccine that is on a fast-track for potential approval because of the pandemic.

Donald Yealy, chairman of emergency medicine at the Pittsburgh medical center, said the vaccine is a “groundbreaking achievement” and the first candidate to reach this milestone in preventing coronavirus.

“That’s what we are delivering,” Yealy said.

In a livestream news conference, Louis Falo, a UPMC professor of dermatology, said the University of Pittsburgh is the same place where Jonas Salk developed the first successful polio vaccine 65 years ago.

The COVID-19 vaccine, if approved, would be delivered in a patch containing micro-needles.

Falo said one person would have the ability to make hundreds of the patches in a single day.

“We hope to move this as quickly as possible,” Falo said.

UPMC also has stepped up testing of the virus.

Yealy said UPMC is not expecting to see widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 as have happened in other areas.

“Social distancing appears to be working,” he said.

[PaceAdvantage]

We are beyond the quick fix phase at this point.

Besides, do you actually think they are going to get a working vaccine out anytime soon? Sooner than 6 months? Absolutely not.

Hell, they have existing DRUGS that have already gone through FDA approval 20 years ago, but do you see them rolling it out for widespread off-label use?

Not really...are you wondering why? I am.

If they won't roll out 20yo medications that have shown promise in the field, they sure as hell aren't going to rush a brand new vaccine that could do more harm than good if not tested thoroughly. Company doesn't want to be sued out of existence, for starters....

[lamboguy]

i truly wonder how Fed Chairman Jay Powell can keep this dollar as strong as it is with all the stimulous and giveaway's going on now.

[PaceAdvantage]

I have been cautiously optimistic for about a week or so that we were turning the corner on all of this.

I no longer feel this way.

I also don't think we're anywhere near the bottom.

I still see far too much effort being expended trying to convince people how the danger is growing, not subsiding...not even a little bit.

The sickening feeling in my stomach that I first got when all this started going down has returned. I can't put my finger on it...it's just a general thing.

None of this is normal. NONE of it.

They say nothing is as good or bad as it seems.

In this instance, I say things are far worse than they seem.

3M unemployed last week....TEN MILLION this week...these are MIND BLOWING, EARTH SHATTERING, RECORD SMASHING numbers...

Are you all wrapping your minds around this?

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

They say nothing is as good or bad as it seems.

Maybe the economy wasn't in as good a shape as it seemed.

[lamboguy]

he was the great one, not because he skated to where the puck was, but to where it was going.

we as human beings are born to make mistakes and wrong choices. look at the mirror and understand that and act accordingly.

[pandy]

It's hard to be optimistic in a recession with so many people unemployed. But the market is acting like that 18591 number was the low. We're surely going to have volatility and more bad down days but it seems like the people who wanted out of their 401ks, mostly baby boomers, are out. The ones that stayed in are probably going to stick it out which could keep the market from making a new low.

I see people saying that there's going to be a "new normal", but the people saying that are not Millenials. Facebook is dominated by baby boomers, as is this site. Even though younger people with children are the segment that may get hurt the most by this shutdown, the ones that get their jobs back are not going to stop going to bars, restaurants, concerts, etc.

There were two casino deals this week, Ceasars was sold, casino stocks have held up fairly well, all things considered. I don't see a new normal. People are not going to stop living and trying to enjoy their lives. After 911 a lot of people said that people would leave New York and DC, but property values kept going up.

[Secondbest]

Jobs report was a disaster. 701k . And this is before the worst of the virus.
When this is finally over I think things will never be the same. Work at home will be the norm and more people will opt to be their own boss and not rely on anyone else. But as in all things we shall see.

[highernote]

People can't stay locked up in their homes forever. At some point people will just have to roll the dice, go back to work, and hope they don't contract covid-19 and die.

I just can't see how the government can ask people to shelter in place, but not provide support. $1,200 is nothing.

When people get evicted from their apartments and their houses are foreclosed for non-payment of the mortgage and property taxes, is everyone going to end up in public housing, and on food stamps and welfare?

If you own your house free and clear and have a little property you might be able to be self-sustained. But if you're growing crops and raising animals and 95% of the people in your community have nothing, you better be well-armed.