Final selection

[AltonKelsey]

Look how easy it is for these contest guys to run up 100,000 wins



We should just hire them , and save the trouble of handicapping

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Some kind of bet", you say....and yet you call this a "strong opinion". When the 5th betting choice on the board looks 3rd best to you...what type of bet would you contemplate making? And, if you decide on a win-bet...would you bet the same amount as you would if the horse was your top handicapping choice in the race? The 3rd-best horse would demand a reduction in the bet sizing...NO?

If I thought he was the 3rd best horse and a huge overlay I'd focus on exactas and triples because there would be value in just getting him on the ticket.

I might just do a normal key box with him and a small win bet. My combinations would tend to be of similar amounts in each slot.

If he was my top choice, I'd go heavier on top in exotcis and also have a bigger win bet.

I used to bet horses like that to win and leave it at that, but i ran into the issue you suggested. My long term records indicate that I do best with flat bets, but it's hard to make the same size bet on a 3-1 shot I think should be 8/5 and a 20-1 shot I think should be 10-1.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by 1ejp

How do you make your final decision?

After grappling with that frustration for years. I just "shotgun" races as vertical exotics.....Less frustrating, takes a steady nerve, but long term profits are better.

[erikeepper]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

After grappling with that frustration for years. I just "shotgun" races as vertical exotics.....Less frustrating, takes a steady nerve, but long term profits are better.

I too have started to hunt with a shotgun. I used to ALWAYS pick just one key horse. I was profitable but BR swings were too much for my mental health. With this current approach I am still profitable, I am able to find more races to bet, and the ride is much smoother.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

After grappling with that frustration for years. I just "shotgun" races as vertical exotics.....Less frustrating, takes a steady nerve, but long term profits are better.

I think that makes sense of you hate a short priced horse enough to leave him out totally but have no strong opinions on the rest of the race.

I do that sometimes when I hate the favorite and know I want to get into the race somehow, but I'm confused about how good a few of the contenders actually are or how they are going to run today. Then'll I'l just box a few horses and hope I am at least right about the favorite.

[46zilzal]

Riding the coat tails has been, without a doubt, the BEST mechanism I have ever used.

Works best when a big odds horses come under or between the top two keys...There is the chance of a slight loss time to time, but when these long shots populate the places UNDER it, BY FAR, makes up for them.

You have to be PATIENT but with the ability to peruse many race via software allows you to be a more discriminating in where you back them financially

[CheckMark]

It depends on when a final decision is really needed for me. If I feel very confident about my top 2 horses. I do not make a final decision. But, if there are multiple horses who are pretty close to each other. I would do the following:
Best: Speed(1pt), class(1pt), Pace(1pt), form(1pt), jockey(1pt), trainer(1pt), workout(1pt), recent racing(1pt), angles(1pt). Most points is my top 2.

[airford1]

Current form cycle , dont make it more difficult that it already is.