Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
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Give me a steady 4% Roi and it doesn't take long to build a nice bankroll.
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You can't conclude from 77 races that you are rock solid at 4%. This is one reason why I requested a 100 race test which Pensacola Pete was kind enough to do. Here are the results in his own words:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete
For the 5-day test run:
Races: 114
Win: 26 (21.0%)
Second: 25
Third: 17 (ITM:59.6%)
Bet: $228.00
Collected: $207.00
Net loss: 21.00 (ROI: 0.907)
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You were certainly headed in the same direction.
When I came up with my show betting system,I did a 100 race test with actual money and showed several people the print out from Twinspires. It showed a 100% ROI and a hit rate of 85%. I declared the same thing as Thaskalos. That I was going to be rich because as Thaskalos said, you can make a lot of money compounding a 4% ROI. Imagine what 100% ROI compounding would be. Move over Donald Trump. Well doesn't work as easy as that. That's another story. After 2 years of betting the system, it went down to a 15% ROI and a 65% hit rate. I am assuming it has bottomed out and I can depend on 15% but even now I'm not sure.
So back to pace view. I hope Pensacola Pete's 114 race test run sobers up some of delusions of grandeur about this system. According to NCG, he has sold 150 copies. Yet all I hear is the same few people acting like they struck gold. No words from the silent majority.
The only way you win at horse racing is hard work. A few years ago I went to the NHC championship. I was 10th after day one. I would have been about 5th but they dq'd a $15 winner (plus place money) I had. I don't say this to brag, only to show some credentials. I also had a $50K P6. The only person holding that ticket. So maybe I know something. In other words I'm not some Joe just discrediting people which is not my interest or motivation.
But as I said, its hard work. When I played the NHC and I played my 100 race test of my show system I was so focused. Checking every detail. I was very careful about what I selected. That is the intensity I find I need to reach that level of excellence. I don't reach that level anymore simply because I choose not to. Too stressful. So I play much more casually and get much reduced returns. Ok with me because I don't need the money now like I used to and there are more important things in life.
However the people with "pace view" use their system like a black box on easy street. Underestimating this game. That's one of the major flaws. Another is all the users don't seem to realize that there is a major flaw in the Bris pace ratings with "pace view". I've seen people picking closers as the speed and speed as the closers. That's because Bris doesn't really differentiate when a horse who needs a lone lead gets a big LP from the fact that he just went wire to wire. So he is listed as the best LP. Of course then he gets in a speed duel and cant close, he wilts and you lose because your bet was based on incorrect data.
There is also form cycles "pace view" users do not pay attention to. There were so may odds on horses picked in the 114 race test that were false favorites that finished off the board because their form cycle screamed they would be out of the money.
These are a few reasons why this test run finished in the red. A few simple adjustments, most notably handicapping the selections the program spits out, may have resulted in a 10% positive rather than negative ROI.
Despite this computer age we live in, and I have my own home grown software, I have concluded that you cannot rely on what a computer program puts out because of the thousands of variables in horse racing a computer program cannot cover. Sometimes you are right in overriding the computers selections and sometimes you are wrong. But when you are wrong you need to make a note of it and learn from it. They still have not made a program that can look at all those variables that the human mind can and analyze them. Using the two brains together works best.