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Old 03-15-2018, 12:10 PM   #331
Dave Schwartz
 
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Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
On a related note, for those who are complaining about late odds changes and believe they're caused by CRW teams, assuming you agree to the following (if you don't agree then there's no point in discussing):

1. No one is consistently past posting. That is, no teams are getting bets in after the start of the race consistently. Perhaps it happens occasionally but due to tech problems
2. No team has access to special data that isn't readily available to everyone,
though it might cost $ (i.e. no one is able to buy the tri/super matrices)

#1 & #2 are exactly true. There is nothing that we could not get from the old SuperTote (which appears to be gone now) that is available to anyone else.
I'll come back to that.

As Lambo said, with enough money he can get you a server that allows for instant access to the tote data. However, it is not much more up to date than what is available elsewhere.

What does that mean?

Consider SuperTote. The default update from SuperTote used to be about every 30 seconds. But consider Super Tote itself... for practical purposes they were the data provider for us in terms of the tote board. (Substitute DRF or any other 3rd party tote board.)

They are getting the data by hitting a server themselves (or having it pushed to them).

The bottleneck for someone using SuperTote was the 30-second refresh from SuperTote. Their bottleneck (SuperTote's ) was at the next level up.

So, Lambo is right. Spend enough money and you can become SuperTote - hitting the tote system for the absolute newest data available.

HOWEVER... that data aggregation is not up completely to date either because not all the satellite bet-takers - whether they are tracks or OTBs - are reporting the data very fast.


Back to #1: Past Posting.
Get this... The whales are not cheating. Frankly, they have multi-million dollar businesses. They are not going to risk being barred because of something illegal.

Many of you don't like to hear this but they do it with better handicapping and wagering processes.

I want desperately to compete on that level but simply lack the horsepower and resources to do it. And I have far more resources than most of you do, in terms of programming skills, data, etc. It just takes more than that.


Now for #2: Extra Information
I once had an amazing tote update opportunity. It was the same feed pushed to "The Whales" from the same source. I am constrained to talk about who it was from but I can tell you what was in it.

I can also tell you that these guys also have a big business and are not going to do anything illegal. They were a pleasure to deal with and were completely professional. Special note: They were not an ADW. They were a provider to ADWs.

1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles.

2. Jockey changes in close to real time, based upon availability. (As soon as they are made available by the track.)

3. Track Condition updates. Same as above... based upon when they are made available by the track.

(We can all get the above information in many places. It simply isn't easily accessible.)

Notice that there is no trifecta combination information. Neither is there Superfecta information or multi-race information. That is because the tote system does not receive that information in a timely manner. (i.e. before the race is started.)


This is reality. Not conspiracy theory.

Are whales bad for racing? Sure.

Why? Because they raise the bar of competition as does every high-volume winning player. They also remove money from the churn. When they withdraw money, it never comes back to the track.

But they do not do it unfairly.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Old 03-15-2018, 12:29 PM   #332
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I'm not challenging Dave in anyway to disclose anything, nor questioning his integrity in any way.

However, he states he is constrained to disclose who provides a certain service, yet states that it's nothing illegal, dishonest or nefarious in any way. These are the kind of contradictions that make the meat and potato bettor wonder if they're involved in a fair proposition when playing the horses.
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Old 03-15-2018, 12:30 PM   #333
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What does this magical consul look like? Is it actually a consul like a bloomberg terminal? Is it software? Does it pull in all tote companies? You've made this claim before, and you're the only person I've seen make it. Not saying it doesn't exist, but sounds a bit fishy.

That said, IT'S STILL NOT THE REASON YOU'RE LOSING AND THEY'RE WINNING. Assuming this magical terminal exists, take away the terminal and only assume they're getting odds from archaic scraping of websites, which is completely possible for ANYONE to do, these teams will still win. Again, nothing unfair - those complaining simply need to admit they're not as good and accept it.
i never said i am losing, if you are interested the consul will run you $40,000. i will personally go to wherever you are to sign you up. you will need to sign a consent and disclosure. i promise you will have access to pools that you never dreamt of. i appreciate your business if you chose to sign up.-
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:03 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
***
So, Lambo is right. Spend enough money and you can become SuperTote - hitting the tote system for the absolute newest data available.
***
Many of you don't like to hear this but they do it with better handicapping and wagering processes.
***
But they do not do it unfairly.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz
Ok, I accept that there is some tote api to which I don't have access, though seems like I could if I'm willing to pay. That said, take it away and just have the teams access the odds via scraping ADWs and the person who feels he's being killed by late odds changes will be in the same position - that is, the direct tote access IS NOT the reason that person can't compete. Said differently, if he could get access, it's not going to magically make him a better player.

Your last point sums up my frustration with the constant complaining - those large teams are not winning unfairly. They're just better.

Separately, I don't think this is that hard:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles.

2. Jockey changes in close to real time, based upon availability. (As soon as they are made available by the track.)

3. Track Condition updates. Same as above... based upon when they are made available by the track.

(We can all get the above information in many places. It simply isn't easily accessible.)
I've managed to pull all this data in real time such that I can run a completely automated system. It uses just Twin Spires data for the real time portion and converts some fields to their respective DRF/Equibase values from which I get historical data. So I guess it depends what you mean by "simply isn't easily accessible". Does it require work? Yes. Does it require so much work that only syndicates can do it? No. That said, I do wish that a vendor who sells historical data would also provide an API for all the entry/change/pool info which matches with the historical data (jockey names, horse names, surface condition, etc). And something that accurately counts down the time to post <----the biggest missing item
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:05 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i never said i am losing, if you are interested the consul will run you $40,000. i will personally go to wherever you are to sign you up. you will need to sign a consent and disclosure. i promise you will have access to pools that you never dreamt of. i appreciate your business if you chose to sign up.-
Sorry, wasn't trying to say that you in particular are a losing player. Was directed at those are losing and blame it on some disadvantage outside of their control rather than not being as good as their competitors
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:07 PM   #336
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I want desperately to compete on that level but simply lack the horsepower and resources to do it. And I have far more resources than most of you do, in terms of programming skills, data, etc. It just takes more than that.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

This is interesting. Dave, what do you think are the missing pieces preventing you from reaching that level? What resources? If it's a manpower issue, could you hire others, or do you not see the value? I'm curious how these teams form.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:27 PM   #337
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One thing to remember is what we consider fair is entirely a regulatory issue. If insider trading were not illegal, there would be nothing unfair about getting information from your brother who sits on the board of a public corporation and trading on it. But we made it illegal. However, if the same information is simply accidentally released and an outsider hears it first and makes a trade, that is legal- just exploiting an opportunity anyone could have had.

To put it clearly, regulators could- and arguably should- make preferential access to tote data a serious crime, akin to insider trading. There is no principle that says everything has to be for sale to whales.
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Old 03-15-2018, 03:25 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
I'm not challenging Dave in anyway to disclose anything, nor questioning his integrity in any way.

However, he states he is constrained to disclose who provides a certain service, yet states that it's nothing illegal, dishonest or nefarious in any way. These are the kind of contradictions that make the meat and potato bettor wonder if they're involved in a fair proposition when playing the horses.
No offense taken. Thanks for being ultra-polite. (Most people just call me a liar and move on. LOL)

Non-disclosure agreements work that way- restrict what one can say. Nothing nefarious about it.

Back when I had the whale feed, I'd share information here and my phone would ring with complaints about me sharing too much.


Dave
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:08 PM   #339
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Late odds changes are making me money. Because of them , I hardly ever bet any more.
nice
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:08 PM   #340
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Back to #1: Past Posting.
Get this... The whales are not cheating.
Doesn't matter.
If people thing they are past posting, then for all intents and purposes they are. And I would suggest that someone PROVE it.

I, for one, believe bets ARE getting in late until I see some proof otherwise. What possible semblance of integrity does racing have that I would trust thier word for anything?

How do you justify this to a newbie?
I just tell anyone who asks me that the game if fixed stay away. I would NEVER recommend racing to anyone.

Maybe we should all step aside and watch whale wars...from the casino side of the track.

I am going to FL this spring, but NOT the races - the slots side.
I know where the customer is treated with respect and where he is taken for granted.
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:10 PM   #341
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No offense taken. Thanks for being ultra-polite. (Most people just call me a liar and move on. LOL)

Non-disclosure agreements work that way- restrict what one can say. Nothing nefarious about it.

Back when I had the whale feed, I'd share information here and my phone would ring with complaints about me sharing too much.


Dave
Thank you for taking the post in the spirit intended.
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:13 PM   #342
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Frankly, I can't imagine any console (its console , not consul) being the edge.

All those do , assuming one exists, is make the batch betting late more efficient.

And maybe they get the tote data a tad earlier, again, not something any of the players here would benefit from in any significant way.
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:14 PM   #343
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Frankly, I can't imagine any console (its console , not consul) being the edge.

All those do , assuming one exists, is make the batch betting late more efficient.

And maybe they get the tote data a tad earlier, again, not something any of the players here would benefit from in any significant way.
Benefit, no, but do they get hurt? Probably.
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:44 PM   #344
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Benefit, no, but do they get hurt? Probably.
Well, I assume you mean that because the better informed/capitalized/rebated players are given access to this technology, they are able to play a better game, then yes.

Not sure they would do much worse if they had to play off of Twinspires, but of course, that's just an educated guess.
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Old 03-15-2018, 06:41 PM   #345
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Part of handicapping is estimating the price you'll be getting, sizing your bets appropriately, and planning when to bet. To counter your example, simply bet the price down to what you think is fair e.g. 2-1 in your example. You'll get the rebate too... Perhaps you (not you necessarily, but anyone in this situation), don't have the funds available to bet the price down, or you don't have the technological knowhow to read in price data at the time you'd like. Those things don't make the game unfair. There's no structural barrier in the game that won't allow you to accomplish them. It's simply you not being good enough or not working as hard as your competitors. Capitalism at its finest.
You're not getting it. When I make a horse 2-1 @ MNR and bet the horse at 7-2 or higher via Twinspires with 0 MTP and it goes off at 3-2, the guys at the hub are seeing 9/5, 8/5 before I ever do, I see it while the race is in progress, by then they didn't back the horse but backed another or didn't bet the race. In other words they don't bet underlays and the rank and file have no way not to back them a very significant percentage of the time.

Having an idea what a horse will go off at is great, that's why you're betting the horse, you know it's going to drop, when two accurate lines diverge of course that's the horse most likely to drop the most often, the problem is with this much pool coming in late there's no way to know where it's going to land. Nobody knows that without sitting at the hub, they see the aggregation before it gets pushed down to the the tracks and ADWs, that's why this operation was setup at the hub. Did you bother to read the article? I don't think Andy Beyer fabricated what was going on and you'd have to be a pretty bad handicapper to not see that it's still going to this day.
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