Question for former CJ figure users

[andicap]

For those who used to subscribe to Craig's figures before Timeform:

Have you seen a decline in the prices you get on good figure horses due to the more public nature of the numbers? Or because five people can interpret numbers in five different ways have the prices remained relatively stable?

[mabred]

I would hope GRITS or Zaf answers this!!I was with them at Saratoga

for a day and they were very impressive with their knowledge

and use of the figures.They knocked down longshots but they are both

terrific handicappers and and even better friends.


Patsy
mabred

[foul]

HI Andy, I was with Craig from the start and have noticed a decline in the number of good figure horses over the last few years. I don't know the reason but in my experience it has happened.

Foul

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I was one of the "early adopters" of PaceFigures and since I had been a pace handicapper for most of my career (using my own algorithms) I thought the product was great. I never actually did a study, but anecdotally I would have said at that time more of the high PaceFigure horses were ignored than they are now. It is also the case that many of the high TimeForm figure horses are also the high Beyer figure horses. In essence, you'd expect those horse to get bet heavily either way. I'm not sure if there is a synergistic effect, meaning that the double TimeForm/Beyer figure horse is bet heavier than you might expect.

That being said, any good handicapper will say if your selection process begins and ends with the highest figure horse, you're not likely to be on the road to high profit. Even with the TimeForm Figures, you still have to handicap the race. And like the Beyer numbers, the highest TimeForm horse loses plenty of the time.

In the Red Smith at AQU on Saturday Mr. Maybe had the 2nd highest last race TimeForm Figure, but didn't have nearly the graded race credentials of Kaigun, War Dancer or Mr. Speaker. He was listed at 5-1 on the morning line but wound up going off as the 2-1 favorite. Was that the TimeForm effect?

In the end it is the combination of numbers and other handicapping factors that produces longshot winners. There are still horses with good TimeForm figures that pay big prices. I had Pop the Hood in the 5th at AQU on 11/7 at $83.50. I think in general handicappers are sharper and have more tools at their disposal than ever before and in general the percentage of winning favorites is going up and it is harder to find a high priced horse, but they are still out there. Perhaps the existence of TimeForm has affected the number of longshots, but it hasn't eliminated them. For me, I still find enough horses with good TimeForm numbers that go off at prices to think the product is worth it.

[cj]

I still use, obviously. There are plenty of big prices out there to be found. This one at CD had the top best last race TimeformUS Speed Figure, and it was the second best any horse in the race had ever run. The 13 had a 109 three races back. He won and paid $42.20.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by mabred

I would hope GRITS or Zaf answers this!!I was with them at Saratoga

for a day and they were very impressive with their knowledge

and use of the figures.They knocked down longshots but they are both

terrific handicappers and and even better friends.


Patsy
mabred

mabred, a tremendous thank you for these kind words. I don't put up selections, hardly ever, don't feel the need to compete with others or break down every entry in a field after going over it here at my desk. Redundancy for the sake of bragging rights is kind of a pass. I couldn't care less...not out to impress anyone. There's enough of that here, and on Twitter. Besides, I'm not watching or wagering as in the past. Certainly not this time of year.

I think the pace figures themselves, standing alone, no other TFUS info, are gold. There are plenty of prices to be found--still--just don't always anticipate them being in the last out figure, or next to last, which often is hammered. Look back, look races back throughout the entire field. Note, rather than the one top late figure, or the one top early figure? The top two of each, and note the higher odds figure, along with its trainer. These are often where the money is made--the price horses--consider these, along with the 3rd off layoff, and 3rd time out. Too, as for trainers, look for the unexpected, like a Chad Brown, FTS that's underestimated.

Be well, and thanks again.