Can you fade Fierceness?

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by dballard125

When he was setting 3rd, just off the leaders, at the 1/2 mile pole, I thought the race was already over. Thought Fierceness would win by 3-4 lengths from there, I would cash a ton of tickets and have a huge payday. Boy was I wrong.

Me too. Even coming out of the turn, I thought he was in a good place to kick clear and give the closers a moving target.

Then he folded like a cheap suit on a lawn chair with nylon webbings, or something like that. I had some saver plays in case he got beat late fair and square (none that hit, though), but the way the whole field passed him at once was stunning.

[wiretowire68]

The only part of the race he ran well was heading into the turn. I used him, how can you not based on pure speed figures and how easy he looked in Fla. Derby. He ran exactly like he has one great, one bad. To be perfectly honest watching him on tv, the horse did not look good walking to be saddled and in the post parade, there was no jump in his step.

From years of watching and the the overused dappled head to toe... Forever Young, Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom did catch my eye in terms of how they looked during the post parade because most of them look shiny etc. but muscle tone and alertness. Reminds me of a horse Pletcher had a couple of years ago, who had immense talent and could either run off the tv... or was just horrible.. Charge It.

[classhandicapper]

All I'll say (which is consistent with much of what I've said on "class") is that horses with plenty of speed will sometimes put up dazzling final time figures when they catch a soft field, shake loose, set a soft pace or catch a surface that's carrying speed a little better than average. The latter slips through the cracks more than the others unless it's an overwhelming bias.

Top horses have more than just speed. They have reserve energy and burn it off more slowly than cheaper horses when used. Top horses can get used and still run the same kind of fast final time. Great horses can get used even harder and still run the same kind of fast final time.

There are no certainties in racing, but Fierceness looked a lot like a fast horse that took advantage of soft conditions to run fast races but ran poorly when used. He was almost certain to be used in the Derby. That's why I tossed him.

My best guess is that he's more of a miler that can stretch a bit under favorable conditions. At this stage, I don't think he can get into a serious battle and finish with the best 3yos going long. But it's not impossible that if he shakes loose in the Belmont and controls the pace that he keeps running.