2007 Ky Derby Software Picks

[JimG]

Originally Posted by ratpack

How come their are so many #H listed in your Top 5 win%?

Total is a high number because you are betting the top 5 horses per race.

[ratpack]

Originally Posted by JimG

Total is a high number because you are betting the top 5 horses per race.

That's not it. The Top 1 H# under Overlay is 19 horses.

[betovernetcapper]

The program shows how the top pic-2nd pic-3rd pic-4th pic-5th pic performed.

It then lists how those pics did when overlaid.

It then show how those pics did when underlaid.

At some tracks betting action seems to be meaningful-overlays kill you. There

have been protracted periods of time when betting top pic underlays show

amazing results. At some tracks overlays are the way to go. I find it useful.

[bigmack]

Originally Posted by richrosa

I posted my PP's and printouts at my website, www.handicappingos.com

R2 - When I go there and click KY PP's it doesn't nav anywhere? Don't call me a dummy cause I'm sensitive. How can I see the layout of your pp's?

[ratpack]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

The program shows how the top pic-2nd pic-3rd pic-4th pic-5th pic performed.

It then lists how those pics did when overlaid.

It then show how those pics did when underlaid.

At some tracks betting action seems to be meaningful-overlays kill you. There

have been protracted periods of time when betting top pic underlays show

amazing results. At some tracks overlays are the way to go. I find it useful.

I just don't get where all those H# are coming from that you posted on the Derby. Top 1 under ALL H# lists 41 horses.

Another question their is a *by the overlays 1.26 Top 2, is that saying you should dutch the top 2 Scat Daddy and Street Sense if they are overlays?

[betovernetcapper]

Sorry it's confusing-the top bunch of numbers is how the program is preforming at CD so far. The * suggests that betting either/both of the top 2 is a good strategy. I don't think this sample is large enough to be really meaningful-but that's the layout.

[douglasw32]

Home grown, projects horsed stretching out, makes all past race times = 12 furlongs, then compares that in Miles Per Hour to Secretariat's Derby run.

http://localpcpros.com/dfkd.pdf


Par today has to be one that can hit a 79/80 distance figure from a 6/7 class level.

[timtam]

Okay I got lots of programs so here we go

Insta Pick :

15
4

Classy Profits :
19-Dominican
6- Cowtown
8- Hard Spun
14- Scat Daddy
16-Circular Quay
12- Nobiz Like
7- Street Sense

[timtam]

Max 21:
10 Teuflesberg 38
2 Curlin 35
3 Zanjero 34
6 Cowtown Cat 32

Double Dozen :
7 - Street Sense 24
16- Circular Quay 14
14 Scat Daddy 12
12 Nobiz Like 9

Winergy:
6 Cowtown Cat 244
8 Hard Spun 244
18 Any Given 239
1 Sedgefield 238
7 Street Sense 237
12 Nobiz Like 235
16 Circular Quay 233
2 Curlin 232
17 Stormello 232
14 Scat Daddy 231
9 Liquidity 228
13 Sam P 228
20 Great Hunter 225
5
10
15
19
3
11
4

WIN-GENERATE
10- Teuflesberg 88

[Jake]

My software, geared toward longshots, top 3 in order:

Any Given Saturday 12-1
Hard Spun 15-1
Nobiz Like Showbiz 8-1

[Gordon Pine]

My method of handicapping the Derby is:

1. Pick a horse who has recent speed figures that are in the ballpark of the best of the competition.
2. Insist on value.

I use my standard mechanical contender-selection method in the Derby. I take the highest two of each horse’s last three speed figures and average them. That gives me a contender figure for each horse. (If there are only two races available in the pps, I average them. If there is only one race available, I use that as the number.) I then take the top five horses as my contenders. If anybody is tied for fifth, I include them. I’m using Cramer speed figures rather than Beyer speed figures this year.

Here are my five contenders:

Street Sense -- 100 contender rating
Teuflesberg -- 97.5 contender rating
Nobiz Like Shobiz -- 99 contender rating
Scat Daddy -- 102 contender rating
Stormello -- 98.5 contender rating

Yeah, it's pretty bold contender selection to throw out 75% of the horses including the morning line favorite, but as Ron Ambrose used to say, "Often wrong, but never in doubt." I may get blown out at this step, but this contender selection method has historically been a good strategy in big races, so I'll stick with it.

I ran these horses through The Capper, manually picking my own pacelines, and this is my betting line:

Horse____________Fair Odds______Bet Odds______ML Odds
Scat Daddy__________5/2__________ 6/1_________10/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz___5/2___________6/1__________8/1
Street Sense________4/1___________9/1__________4/1
Stormello___________7/1__________15/1_________30/1

It'll depend on the track odds, but if the morning line odds are any guide, I'll be betting three horses to win (in a 20 horse field, I don't have any problem with this): Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello.

My exacta strategy is to wheel the overlays top-and-bottom to the top two favorites, and then to box the overlays. So, my exacta bets may be something like this: Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello on top and underneath Curlin and Circular Quay. Also, a three-horse exacta box of Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello.

Because I picked my own pacelines and contenders, and set The Capper's predictors to equal weights (in effect turning off the predictor modeler), my betting line may be different than other Capper users

[Ponyplayr]

I'm usring AO1V6

05/05/07 Race #10                      CD                  1 1/4 Miles Dirt Fast

05/05/07 Race #10 CD 1 1/4 Miles Dirt Fast
Post: 6:04PM (06:04 PM) 20 entries
STK G1 Open Age: 3 YO, No Sex Restrictions
No Model Available No E/P/S available No WMF No PCP
Race Type : Orderly (DA)

=================================BETTING LINE==================================
Fair Bet WP WPS ML DSLR Comments
SC Horse name Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 6/1 8/1 20/1 40/1 8/1 28 bmpd st, stdy 1st turn
7 Street Sense 4/1 21 dueled,brushd,all out
17 Stormello 30/1 35 inside, gamely
14 Scat Daddy 10/1 35 4 wide, just up
2 Curlin 7/2 21 swept to fore 4-w
6 Cowtown Cat 20/1 28 pace inside, drew off
19 Dominican 20/1 21 waited 2nd turn
8 Hard Spun 15/1 42 increased margin
18 Any Given Saturday 12/1 28 caught wide both turns
10 Teuflesberg 30/1 21 bobbled break
16 Circular Quay 8/1 56 4-w 2nd trn,clerly bst
1 Sedgefield 50/1 29 bumped 3/8 pole
3 Zanjero 30/1 21 4-w, 5-w,clear,falterd
20 Great Hunter 15/1 21 4wd into lane,clear
9 Liquidity 30/1 28 faded final furlong
13 Sam P. 20/1 28 vied,stalked,best rest
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50/1 35 no final kick rail
15 Tiago 15/1 28 off bit slow,rallied
11 Bwana Bull 50/1 28 3w 2nd trn, driving
4 Storm in May 30/1 21 angled wide 1/4 pole

===============================SPEED/PACE SUMMARY===============================
Race Type : Orderly (DA) Average NTL: 2.7

[tboles]

Here is Thorostats selections for tomorrows Derby.
Great Hunter and Street Sense should be rated higher but the Bluegrass trouble lowered their chances. I move those 2 into the top 4 rated 3rd and 4th along with Nobiz Like Shobiz who should get the early lead and Circular Quay who I believe will be the winner.

[levinmpa]

William Scott Ratings, Sorted by PCR.

Name               2nd  Fin  Class  Total  PCR    Half  CQ    LRA    Form
2 Curlin           7    3    6      26     1.63   72.9  32.6  105.6  NN+
8 Hard Spun        9    9    16     50     1.47   71.7  31.8  103.5  N+N
12 Nobiz Like Shob 11   9    15     50     1.43   70.9  32.1  103.0  N+N
17 Stormello       19   26   20     87     1.34   70.8  32.4  103.2  N+-
1 Sedgefield       23   24   20     87     1.30   73.2  31.6  104.7  N+-
14 Scat Daddy      25   14   17     64     1.14   71.0  31.6  102.6  N+N
7 Street Sense     30   13   14     65     1.14   77.1  27.7  104.7  N+N
19 Dominican       26   17   18     66     1.08   77.5  27.3  104.7  N+N
6 Cowtown Cat      22   18   18     60     1.03   73.6  31.5  105.1  N+N
15 Tiago           17   13   9      39     1.00   72.7  30.4  103.0  NNN
10 Teuflesberg     30   36   24     89     .99    76.7  28.1  104.8  N+N
4 Storm In May     40   26   28     92     .98    73.8  31.7  105.6  NN-
20 Great Hunter    44   19   20     80     .96    77.0  28.1  105.1  N+N
18 Any Given Satur 25   10   16     49     .96    70.9  32.7  103.6  N+-
9 Liquidity        20   27   17     58     .91    71.4  32.3  103.8  N+-
16 Circular Quay   44   13   15     62     .86    72.5  31.0  103.5  NLN
13 Sam P.          39   23   21     71     .86    71.8  31.8  103.6  N+N
11 Bwana Bull      34   20   22     64     .84    72.3  31.6  104.0  N+N
3 Zanjero          51   20   19     75     .83    77.1  27.7  104.8  N+N
5 Imawildandcrazyg 49   31   25     83     .79    72.2  31.4  103.7  NNN

[Kelso]

Originally Posted by Gordon Pine

I take the highest two of each horse’s last three speed figures and average them.

Gordon,
In your mechanical system, do you consider or ignore surface and distance when looking at the "last three?" If you do consider distance, how much leeway do you allow from today's distance (e.g., an eighth, a sixteenth)?

Thank you.