Social Inclusion sold?

[davew]

With no points yet for for Derby, doesn't Social Inclusion need to get first or second to start in the Derby?

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by davew

With no points yet for for Derby, doesn't Social Inclusion need to get first or second to start in the Derby?

yes

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Honor Code ran exactly as I (and probably Shug) expected. He ran well. He would have won almost any other race of that caliber, on that track, on that day, but he ran into a buzzsaw.

This is Social Inclusion's record.

1. He had a monster work before his first start that indicated he had a lot of talent (45 3/5 hg 2/79). So winning first out was not a shock. In hindsight, 9-1 on a Poineer of the Nile with that work is the shock. It had to be that the trainer has a mediocre record with FTS otherwise that horse would have (and should have) gotten bet much harder. I can't guarantee that I would have bet him that day had I handicapped the race, but I guarantee he would have the horse I was interested in betting on.

2. In his first start, he got left a little on the inside, eventually rushed up, took command, and drew off big in fast time with something left (albeit on a speed favoring track).

3. For his next start he was adding Lasix. So between it being his second career start and adding Lasix, taking a major step forward would not be a shock.

4. In the race, he made the lead easily, but in mid race when Honor Code (who we already know has a very good turn of foot) started narrowing the gap, he kicked away easily without even being asked for his best. He had a gear that Honor Code did not have. When finally asked, he drew far away. Both the middle and end of the race were quite fast.

5. Honor Code was 17 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse giving further evidence that he had run well, but the winner ran very well.

6. Some very smart people are offering large amounts of money for this horse (from what I've read there was already interest before he even made his first start) and the connections are turning down life changing amounts until he has another start (risking the score of a lifetime). Either they are all insane or they are all confident this is a very good horse (despite any biases, slow paces, and GP).

What we have here is a horse that raced on a speed favoring track and then got an easy lead at GP. That 2 things most handicappers like to bet against.

But we also have horse that every bit of evidence suggests is a very good horse and not some mediocre flash in the pan that caught some easy trips.

You can't bet on him next out at short odds.

I sure wouldn't buy him at the prices being tossed around.

But it's almost impossible for me to think this is anything other than a very talented and very good horse.

I am rooting for them to handle him properly because I'd hate to see him rushed and ruined because of Derby fever. Horses with this profile fall apart way more often than horses that develop slowly and are given time. IMO, that's the biggest risk.

I agree with you,he is the most interesting horse on the derby trail atm.

In a way,I would like to see him rate in the Wood,to get an idea of what he can do from behind horses.I believe he needs to get 2nd to earn a spot in the derby?
Ideally,from my perspective,would like to see him mid-pack early with a solid finish,and if thats enough to get in.....he would be my choice.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I agree with you,he is the most interesting horse on the derby trail atm.

In a way,I would like to see him rate in the Wood,to get an idea of what he can do from behind horses.I believe he needs to get 2nd to earn a spot in the derby?
Ideally,from my perspective,would like to see him mid-pack early with a solid finish,and if thats enough to get in.....he would be my choice.

I am still leaning toward Strong Mandate, but I am warming up to Social Inclusion because he reminds me of Seattle Slew a little bit.

[burnsy]

He's not some sort of speed horse. People should watch the race, he can rate and rate kindly. He does a 24 and change, then 23's with the jock motionless. HC is getting the crap whipped out of him and this horse is moving at a good clip with little urging. I guess he works this way too. They are not offering this kind of money on a speed horse or sprinter. Saturday will be the test from the 11 post....its his 3rd start..in a grade 1....if he hits the board, this is a serious race horse.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Honor Code ran exactly as I (and probably Shug) expected. He ran well. He would have won almost any other race of that caliber, on that track, on that day, but he ran into a buzzsaw.

This is Social Inclusion's record.

1. He had a monster work before his first start that indicated he had a lot of talent (45 3/5 hg 2/79). So winning first out was not a shock. In hindsight, 9-1 on a Poineer of the Nile with that work is the shock. It had to be that the trainer has a mediocre record with FTS otherwise that horse would have (and should have) gotten bet much harder. I can't guarantee that I would have bet him that day had I handicapped the race, but I guarantee he would have the horse I was interested in betting on.

2. In his first start, he got left a little on the inside, eventually rushed up, took command, and drew off big in fast time with something left (albeit on a speed favoring track).

3. For his next start he was adding Lasix. So between it being his second career start and adding Lasix, taking a major step forward would not be a shock.

4. In the race, he made the lead easily, but in mid race when Honor Code (who we already know has a very good turn of foot) started narrowing the gap, he kicked away easily without even being asked for his best. He had a gear that Honor Code did not have. When finally asked, he drew far away. Both the middle and end of the race were quite fast.

5. Honor Code was 17 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse giving further evidence that he had run well, but the winner ran very well.

6. Some very smart people are offering large amounts of money for this horse (from what I've read there was already interest before he even made his first start) and the connections are turning down life changing amounts until he has another start (risking the score of a lifetime). Either they are all insane or they are all confident this is a very good horse (despite any biases, slow paces, and GP).

What we have here is a horse that raced on a speed favoring track and then got an easy lead at GP. That 2 things most handicappers like to bet against.

But we also have horse that every bit of evidence suggests is a very good horse and not some mediocre flash in the pan that caught some easy trips.

You can't bet on him next out at short odds.

I sure wouldn't buy him at the prices being tossed around.

But it's almost impossible for me to think this is anything other than a very talented and very good horse.

I am rooting for them to handle him properly because I'd hate to see him rushed and ruined because of Derby fever. Horses with this profile fall apart way more often than horses that develop slowly and are given time. IMO, that's the biggest risk.

Nice post. For all the hype the Wood has gotten, and me normally being a huge NYRA homer, I don't see much in his way here. While there were some excuses I thought In Trouble's last kind of exposed Samraat, Uncle Sigh and co. I cannot come up with a valid excuse for Kristo other than maybe he needs to be on the lead -- something that I don't see as a benefit here. Plus, Sadler's numbers shipping, in particular to NY, make this one tough to back.

The only horse I will probably use beyond Social Inclusion is Wicked Strong who was way against the racetrack last out and I think showed a huge sneaky improvement in that effort than the prior flop. Mexikoma was gathering a lot of hype for the run he put in but really I think WS's race was better. The other two that finished ahead of him are Constitution and Tonalist. Considering the wide trip, racetrack and possibly premature move I think you could make a case that he ran as well as the top 3, all of which would be huge players here. He's been in great company, maybe 3rd off the layoff and a bit of extra ground at the Big A for Jerkens and it all comes together.

[cj]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Nice post. For all the hype the Wood has gotten, and me normally being a huge NYRA homer, I don't see much in his way here. While there were some excuses I thought In Trouble's last kind of exposed Samraat, Uncle Sigh and co. I cannot come up with a valid excuse for Kristo other than maybe he needs to be on the lead -- something that I don't see as a benefit here. Plus, Sadler's numbers shipping, in particular to NY, make this one tough to back.

The only horse I will probably use beyond Social Inclusion is Wicked Strong who was way against the racetrack last out and I think showed a huge sneaky improvement in that effort than the prior flop. Mexikoma was gathering a lot of hype for the run he put in but really I think WS's race was better. The other two that finished ahead of him are Constitution and Tonalist. Considering the wide trip, racetrack and possibly premature move I think you could make a case that he ran as well as the top 3, all of which would be huge players here. He's been in great company, maybe 3rd off the layoff and a bit of extra ground at the Big A for Jerkens and it all comes together.

I'm not a big proponent of the bounce theory. I think it is way overused. But, if any horse fit the circumstances laid out by James Quinn in his book years ago to a tee, it was In Trouble.

[Robert Goren]

Did this horse actually get sold?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Did this horse actually get sold?

No.

[classhandicapper]

Drawing outside the other speeds potentially did not make his life any easier. He could easily get hung out wide running fast early.

On the flip side, I doubt the connections of any of the other major contenders want to use their horses hard to hang Social Inclusion out wide in the Wood when they already have enough points and the Derby is the major objective. No point emptying your horse in a prep. So it's not impossible he clears fairly easily and then they stalk him.

It's an interesting race even if it's not a great betting race.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Did this horse actually get sold?

The money that was offered was very good but the connections requested a change of trainer, so there was no sale.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm not a big proponent of the bounce theory. I think it is way overused. But, if any horse fit the circumstances laid out by James Quinn in his book years ago to a tee, it was In Trouble.

Fair, interesting and appreciated point. Definitely something to consider at greater length when handicapping this race.

[PhantomOnTour]

I wonder how Social Inclusion will react when he doesn't get the early lead on Saturday.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I wonder how Social Inclusion will react when he doesn't get the early lead on Saturday.

My guess is that would be OK.

It's being hung out 3-4 wide in fast fractions that would undo all but a horse that is very superior to the field.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

My guess is that would be OK.

It's being hung out 3-4 wide in fast fractions that would undo all but a horse that is very superior to the field.

He ran great earned 20 points(could have been 40 but got nosed out for 2nd)I see him going to the Preakness and winning.