Gotham Stakes

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

It's easy to over-think these races, and talk yourself onto a long-shot. I'm probably going to pass the race, but thinking about using Financial Mogul as a Key horse in some vertical exotics. Violette 2nd-off-the-layoff and in New York could indicate that we'll at least see a consistent effort.

yeah I have tossed around the idea of using Harpoon in some exotic keys depending on the value you can get on him going in. Weather still will play some factor if it gets wet.

But if it stays cold and hard, look for Samraat to have an even easier time.

[Ocala Mike]

[dirty moose]

Won't be wet, and it was dry and ice cold today. Should be pretty cold tomorrow too. 30's

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

Won't be wet, and it was dry and ice cold today. Should be pretty cold tomorrow too. 30's

Yeah could turn into a raceway....going to pay close attention to the earlier races on the card.

The 1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th races could tell us something useful to use in the Gotham.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The major difference in opinion between our Gotham analysis would be Financial Mogul. I rated his Holy Bull effort a lot higher than you did. While I don't see him as a derby contender like Intense Holiday or Cairo Prince(,or even a fringe possibility like Conquest Titan), I do have him as a grade 3 horse who fits well enough here to hit the board in the Gotham.

I also am much less a fan of Samraat's potential. If this race sets up for his speed like the Withers did, he could well sprint around to win his 5th consecutive victory. When he faces some adversity, I think his streak will end.

Didn't he face adversity in the Withers though?
He was denied the lead for the first time ever, and had to fight all the way around.
He had never even seen another horse in his first three races, and then had one on his ass the whole way in the Withers & he still prevailed.
His trip was clean, but that's what usually happens with speed horses.

Not saying that I am backing Samraat (he gets 123lbs today and concedes 7lbs to his Withers rival when he only gave him 2lbs in that race)....however, I do think he has faced an adversity hurdle and cleared it.
He'll get more adversity Saturday and we'll see how he does.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Didn't he face adversity in the Withers though?

It's all relative. He ran good in the Withers, but I didn't rush out to make Derby futures wagers after seeing that race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Much like Intense Holiday in the Risen Star, I see Financial Mogul getting tons of love on the interwebs.

I used Intense Holiday on top last week (lost my bet anyway) but I cannot get behind Financial Mogul as a winner of this race.
Exotics? - yes
To win? - no way

He closed well in the Nashua, has faced some of the better runners of his generation, had a decent return race and a nice work tab...but I just think he's too slow to catch these. He needs a bit of a collapse to nail them all, in my opinion.

I am still sold on that Extrasexy #8.

[bgbootha]

The two scratches were inconsequential, although there was something about Monopolize I was starting to like.

The issue now is that Samraat will be even closer to the inside on the start from as will ExtraSexyHippzster.

I am still liking Harpoon to get some of that money in the exotics.



Good luck all, I am headed out to the local establishment

[theguarantee]

While I have the sinking feeling that someone else will beat him, I can't help but really like Uncle Sigh in here. Training well, well bred, has done nothing wrong. Before the last race Contessa said they hoped someone would go with Samraat but they wouldn't let him coast out front on his own if no one else does. Samraat broke much the best and it forced Uncle Sigh's hands. I really think it took him out of his game. With In Trouble in there today they won't have to worry about that and can take Uncle Sigh off the pace, where I think (still unproven) he will show his true colors. I also think, and I could be dead wrong, that Harpoon may show more speed today. People are acting as if he has no speed because of the last race. From the 10 hole he probably has to drop out of it or go for the front. Dropping out of it probably makes more sense but since he hung so badly last time, would it really be that bold of Pletcher/Ortiz to say we're going?

Ridiculous opinion, I have talked myself into Master Lightning. Have heard everyone completely dismiss him and I initially did too. Honestly, his last at Laurel was really weird. He dropped amazingly far out of it and was never even in the picture. Big deal after walking 6 furlongs I know, but he was closing like a freight train late. Regardless, I think if you cross a line through that (maybe he didn't travel well or like what was a seemingly funky track that day) -- he still comes up a bit slow here but would probably be getting some attention on the connections alone. Pletcher made some intriguing comments about how erratic he's been and that today would be a good day for a talented runner to bring his A game. Might just be overthinking it but I'm not going to let Pletcher sneak this one past me personally. If he finishes dead last I don't think I'll lose any sleep.

Using those two as my A's and In Trouble/Financial Mogul as B's. Tossing the rest.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't have a strong opinion here.



In Trouble could be the real deal. Who knows? Maybe he'll break well and save ground on the 1st turn, w/ Samraat going to lead up the backstretch. Uncle Sigh in 3rd. In Trouble wearing down Samraat with Financial Mogul and Harpoon picking up pieces past a tiring Uncle Sigh.


$10 Tris
=$10
=$10
=$10

$2 Tris
1,2 1,2 =$4
1,2 1,2 =$4
1,2 1,2 =$4

50cent Tris
1,2, w/ 1,2,4,10 w/ =$3
1,2, w/ w/ 1,2,4,10=$3
w/1,2 w/ 1,2,4,10=$3

$1Daily Double r8
2,4,6 with = $6

total $57

[reckless]

I see a big effort by In Trouble (#2) as the controlling speed from the rail. I am getting to like Extrasexyhippster (#8) with each passing race and seems capable of taking back a bit early until they strengthen out down the backside. If right, the exacta should be nice considering both are legit contenders.

Financial Mogul (#3) should run better today as well for Violette but as mentioned earlier he seems to be the wiseguy horse. I have been around a long time and have never met a wiseguy that knew what they were talking about or seeing

Uncle Sigh (#4) will be over bet and I will view him as a bet-against. It's also possible that Samraat (#1A), also trained by Violette, will be the sacrificial lamb sent early to help 'Mogul', although no one will admit that in polite company.

Not sure what to make of Harpoon (#10), but then again, Pletcher always has me guessing. Post does hurt chances but if he's also able to finish late against what I perceive to be very fast early pace, could be very enticing, especially at a square price.

Good luck to every one today.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

total $57

$43 double $100

[raybo]

I'm basing these strictly on my best method at Aqu, PFV (PowerFormVelocity).

My PFV picks in ranked order are:
Class horse is
Speed to the 1st call is projected (NOTE: I'm not looking at running styles, only velocities, so these may well not be up front at the 1st call, depending on what the early horses decide to do early, but if they rate behind actual the leaders they will be saving energy for later in the race)

I will play the top 3 PFV ranked horses, based on my long term hit rate for each ranked position (32.92%, 18.81%,13.17% respectively), so I'm NOT focusing on making profit in this individual race, but on the long term (bet these at your risk!):

MASTER LIGHTNING at 3/1 or higher
EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER at 5/1 or higher
SAMRAAT at 8/1 or higher

[fast4522]

maybe no surprise.

[Some_One]

here, surprising how light of action is getting on BF, above 3-1, thought he would be lower even with the fact he's a standalone bet on BF.