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Old 10-11-2018, 09:07 AM   #16
bobphilo
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Originally Posted by ARAZI91 View Post
Yet even here , my studies have shown that there is great value and a large bias towards front running - looked at on a % of runner basis and by impact values - front runners enjoy a massive edge and if can be predicted consistently , is where the money is. This covers data from all UK Flat turf tracks (34) from 2009 - 2017 and is modeled against bookmakers final Starting Price (SP) which have the tightest margins (avg 14% overround / take) profits would be even higher at Xchange prices.
This conforms what I have been saying that the belief that turf races must be ridden fast late is more a matter of tradition than there being some inherent quality or bias of the surface that favors closers. Given the slower pace of turf races, there is an advantage to ridding against tradition and running the race more evenly and efficiently. There is much to be won by betting against these conventional beliefs.
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:34 AM   #17
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They may be even more valuable on turf. Final times and speed figures vary more on turf than on dirt, mainly due to variations in pace. That's why sectional times are crucial in turf races to explain and adjust for the pace and it's effect on final times.
Rightly or wrongly, Europeans value finishing ability more than having early speed, which is why they are less interested in pace. Even when the English Timeform does sectional timing, its only for the last 3 furlongs. That doesn't make the early pace less important, just a reflection of what they value and how they run their races. The services that do more complete sectional timing and pace analysis are beginning to show their added value in the U.K. They are also important in showing the importance of pace patterns on all surfaces, which is only recently being studied, and someday even quantified, as in cj's study. One needs all the sectional splits to do this. While I first discovered the value of using pace patterns in dirt races, I find this analysis just as useful in turf races.
There are more extremely slow paces on turf. Those can impact the times. But the smaller variations that are typical don't have much impact on the results in turf races as they do on dirt.

If some dirt group is expected to go 46 and 111 early and they go 45 2/5 and 110 instead, that could be huge because they may me bumping up against the limits of their speed and will tire.

If some turf group is expected to go 48 and 112 and they go 47 2/5 and 111 instead, it may not change the outcome much at all because they are still running well within their cruising speed.

I believe Timeform figures recognize this reality. Look at some "red colored" paces in turf races, you'll see that the final times are not adjusted as much in turf races as they are in dirt races when paces are fast.

And since turf horses are often running at a slower pace and well within themselves, it's more difficult to project who among those with some early speed will get the lead. They often haven't shown what they are capable of if actually asked and the jockeys know the disadvantage to taking back is not as big on turf. They want to be close, but they'd rather draft, and save ground.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:34 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
There are more extremely slow paces on turf. Those can impact the times. But the smaller variations that are typical don't have much impact on the results in turf races as they do on dirt.

If some dirt group is expected to go 46 and 111 early and they go 45 2/5 and 110 instead, that could be huge because they may me bumping up against the limits of their speed and will tire.

If some turf group is expected to go 48 and 112 and they go 47 2/5 and 111 instead, it may not change the outcome much at all because they are still running well within their cruising speed.

I believe Timeform figures recognize this reality. Look at some "red colored" paces in turf races, you'll see that the final times are not adjusted as much in turf races as they are in dirt races when paces are fast.

And since turf horses are often running at a slower pace and well within themselves, it's more difficult to project who among those with some early speed will get the lead. They often haven't shown what they are capable of if actually asked and the jockeys know the disadvantage to taking back is not as big on turf. They want to be close, but they'd rather draft, and save ground.
What you are saying is in complete agreement with an observation I made in a post some time ago on the effects of pace. The effects of increasing pace are exponential rather than linear so that a large increase in early speed is more tiring exponentially than would be expected, so true, pace differences in high pace races have more of an effect than when the pace is slow.
Also true that one is more likely to see slow pace races on grass than on dirt, so we are in agreement on this point.

However, what I am saying is that this difference in the effect of pace is not dependent on the surface. As Roland states so well, the laws of physics do not change with a change in surface, so the differential effects of pace do not vary on different surfaces. In making pace adjustments one must look to the actual race being considered rather than how these type races are traditionally run. That is why in the U.K. they are beginning to see the equal value of sectional analysis (and pace patterns) in grass as well as all other surfaces.

Pace will have a lessor effect on a slow paced dirt race than on a fast paced grass race and therefore, using a different algorithm for pace adjustments and color coding on turf races and dirt races based solely on the different surfaces is incorrect.

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Old 10-11-2018, 12:15 PM   #19
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Arazi,

Glad to hear of your success with sectional pace analysis. I want to personally thank you for introducing Rowland's excellent treatise on sectional analysis to this thread. In my early reading of I find it consistent with my findings on what I call pace patterns and their value in handicapping, including situations where conventional pace analysis only includes a single pace figure. I find identifying pace patterns a great aid in explaining races where the single traditional pace figure does not.
Please continue with sending info on what's happening "across the pond" in the U.K.
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:19 PM   #20
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I agree with what you saying except for one thing.

It's really hard for me to imagine that after a couple of hundred years of racing on turf that trainers, jockeys, and handicappers have all been wildly mistaken about the differences in surfaces all these years.

I think the surfaces are inherently different and require different distributions of energy and different positioning to maximize the chances of winning. That's why the horses are trained and ridden differently. That's why despite some extremely slow paces, the best closers on turf can get get up in wicked fast late times but dirt horses cannot.

That doesn't mean we can't still learn things, but there are reasons why Chad Brown is incredible with turf horses and Bob Baffert is incredible with dirt horses that go beyond stock. They train their horses differently. The same can be said for certain jockeys.

Whether it's in the hoof size, stride, how much give there is in the surface, how slippery the surface is, how deep the surface is, how much kickback is involved etc.. is more of side issue. IMO, they are not the same and should not be trained or ridden the same.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:09 PM   #21
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I agree with what you saying except for one thing.

It's really hard for me to imagine that after a couple of hundred years of racing on turf that trainers, jockeys, and handicappers have all been wildly mistaken about the differences in surfaces all these years.

I think the surfaces are inherently different and require different distributions of energy and different positioning to maximize the chances of winning. That's why the horses are trained and ridden differently. That's why despite some extremely slow paces, the best closers on turf can get get up in wicked fast late times but dirt horses cannot.

That doesn't mean we can't still learn things, but there are reasons why Chad Brown is incredible with turf horses and Bob Baffert is incredible with dirt horses that go beyond stock. They train their horses differently. The same can be said for certain jockeys.

Whether it's in the hoof size, stride, how much give there is in the surface, how slippery the surface is, how deep the surface is, how much kickback is involved etc.. is more of side issue. IMO, they are not the same and should not be trained or ridden the same.
You are putting too much faith in tradition. Conventional wisdom can be quite wrong for eons in time. Remember the earth was considered flat for centuries, boxers were made to forego sex for weeks before fights throughout the history of the sport. Look at the dramatic improvements in track and field, a sport driven by scientific research, where world records are falling all the time compared to horse racing, which is so tied to tradition. What's more important are the laws of physics which trumps tradition.

In any case, the argument here is not whether different horses have different preferences for different surfaces, no sane person would claim otherwise. As far as Baffert supposedly being a better trainer with dirt horses vs, Brown with grass is largely a matter of reputation. If you have a promising dirt horse you are more likely to send him to Baffert and a grass horse to Brown. Once these reputations, that may start due to coincidence, begin they become self perpetuating.

Yes dirt and turf races are run differently and the results become self fulfilling prophecies. If trainers believe that grass horses must be trained differently, they will do so, regardless of whether it's true or not. Grass races are run as tests of late running ability and will of course, favor horses trained for this. The same applies to dirt in reverse.

What's encouraging is that in England where there is no tradition of dirt being different than grass in terms of energy distribution, pace analysis based on the laws of physics is showing that the laws of physics hold up the same for all surfaces. Another victory of science over tradition. I strongly urge you to read Roland's excellent book for your reaction.
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:57 PM   #22
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Looks like TPD are doing well https://www.drf.com/news/woodbine-la...-timing-system
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Old 10-23-2018, 03:57 PM   #23
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Well worth following Simon Rowlands @RowleyfileRRR on twitter.
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Old 10-27-2018, 05:35 AM   #24
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The Attheraces website has the sectional data for certain of the UK tracks
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Old 10-27-2018, 05:57 AM   #25
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UK Sectionals

I have basic sectionals for all of the UK All Weather Racing going back to 2014. Unfortunately I don't have full splits only the final 2/3 furlongs but I do have pace ratings and run styles etc if anybody would like any help
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