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Old 10-10-2018, 02:12 PM   #46
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To clarify, no Arc winner has won the BC Turf in the same year (though only a fraction have tried).

Found won the '15 BC Turf and the '16 Arc.

So technically I was correct!
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Old 10-10-2018, 02:14 PM   #47
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If you are going to take a strong stand against Accelerate who are you going to take against him?

I'm not a particularly big fan of the 3yos, unless you want to argue that Mendelssohn's effort in the JCGC flattered Catholic Boy also. I thought the Gold Cup fell apart. Mendy hanging around well late was fine, but Discreet Lover is more of a Grade 3 horse. I suspect if it was a deep Gold Cup Mendy would have gotten swallowed up.

McKinzie looks like he has a bright future, but it's a big jump from that Pennsylvania Derby to the big leagues. If it was anyone other than Baffert I wouldn't like the horse much, but I guess he can jump up further.

It just seems like slim pickings this year unless you are projecting improvement from one of the 3yos or think West Coast can bounce back to his best form.
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Old 10-10-2018, 04:25 PM   #48
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City of Light, at 10F which is too far for that horse, is the best horse he has beaten.

At 9F he got beat by City of Light.

Accelerate has ran very well though, not beating much, but unlike the rest who are not beating much he has done it with much more style and speed.
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Old 10-10-2018, 04:45 PM   #49
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This feels like a great BC Classic to keep your mind as open as possible and make your decisions after you know the full field and post positions.
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Old 10-10-2018, 05:52 PM   #50
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Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick comeback?

To me, it feels like a race where some "ok" horse catches a track or pace that suits his style and none of the better horses is good enough to overcome the conditions and beat him. In other words, I'm not impressed.
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Old 10-10-2018, 06:06 PM   #51
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While we are on the topic on the Breeders Cup, does anyone know where I can find the super screeners secrets for this years Breeders Cup? I think it is in a pdf format but I cannot find it at all. If anyone knows where to get it would be awesome.
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Old 10-10-2018, 07:25 PM   #52
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Complete list:

Not exactly a Breeders' Cup preview list.
The actual BC Classic probables don't inspire either. The older horse division has been horrendous.

Simply put, from a beaten rivals perspective, handling City of Light, West Coast, and Pavel probably is about a strong a calling card as you are going to find.

The key question with Accelerate, who has improved a few lengths this year from his 3 and 4yo form ala Gun Runner, is whether you believe his regression in the Awesome Again is a sign of being over-the-top or a consequence of the early trouble/"prep" mode.

The latter theory holds some weight as Sadler in the last couple years had foregone a prep w/in 30 days of the BC with Stellar Wind. So perhaps Accelerate wasn't fully cranked.
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Old 10-10-2018, 10:50 PM   #53
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If I'm going to try to beat Accelerate I am looking at going with the long shot Pavel. Has already shipped east to win the Stephen Foster (albeit a mediocre field). He is like 0/4 against Accelerate but I remember watching the San Pasquale where I believe he was actually favored and seeing a horse that was full of run in the stretch with no where to go, and was completely blocked off...would have given Accelerate a run for his money that day.

Will pry get 40-1 so why not take a small stab?
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Old 10-10-2018, 11:55 PM   #54
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Looking at Beyers, here is my take.

Accelerate - 115. 11 triple digit Beyers. Ran a 115 top two back, could wheel run back to that or higher.

Axelrod - 104. This year - Top-Paired Top-Top-top-Paired Top - 10 pt move to new top. Steadily improving race after race

Bravazo - 97. 28 pt move to start 3yo campaign. Hass only manage to move ahead 8 more pts in 8 more races.

Catholic Boy -104. Versatile, dirt or turf, has steadily progress this year

Collected - 115. 6 triple digit Beyers, one start since January. Better days are gone.

Discreet Lover - 103. Last 5 starts, two tops, two paired tops. Horse ran back to last year's best race then moved ahead.
Finally getting the idea?

Diversify - 110. 6 triple digit Beyers Very fast early last time, first race after pairing two lifetime tops. Could come back strong with the rest.

Gunnivera-109. Still hasn't come within 10 points of last year's form cycle top, Doubt he can move ahead enough to be a factor.

Lone Sailor-95. Seems have peaked out at 93-95. Don't wee any sot for this one to improve.

McKinzie - 107. Improving every start this year. Can move into the 110+ range next time. But he is a 3yo and old are jut as fast or faster.

Mendelssohn - 101. Too slow. Too much to do to catch up, let alone beat the best of the others.

Mind Your Biscuits - 109. Interesting horse,. Only took two route tries, one in the slop, the match his best spring Beyers.Sprinting, his top was 106-109. He could be a better router and blow away to a big new top.

Pavel -104. Too slow. Don't see this guy running with the big boys in here.

West Coast-117. 5 Triple digit Beyers. Could win this with his second best Beyer, even his third. Never made a big move ahead, but several smaller ones. Only one form cycle, he can make a move to beatthisfield and still not tie last year's best. This guy has wiggle room.

Not impressed with anything else.

First pass speed/form cycle looksee.
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Old 10-11-2018, 08:46 AM   #55
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Iím going to take a long look at McKinzie. Running in the PA Derby is no reason to toss him. West Coast, California Chrome & Will Take Charge all used that prep and fared pretty well in the BCC. The trainer has proven he doesnít need actual races to get them ready. 10-1 and Iím in (at this point).
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:13 AM   #56
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Is there a new race that they are introducing for the Breeders Cup?
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:41 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Looking at Beyers, here is my take.

Accelerate - 115. 11 triple digit Beyers. Ran a 115 top two back, could wheel run back to that or higher.

Axelrod - 104. This year - Top-Paired Top-Top-top-Paired Top - 10 pt move to new top. Steadily improving race after race

Bravazo - 97. 28 pt move to start 3yo campaign. Hass only manage to move ahead 8 more pts in 8 more races.

Catholic Boy -104. Versatile, dirt or turf, has steadily progress this year

Collected - 115. 6 triple digit Beyers, one start since January. Better days are gone.

Discreet Lover - 103. Last 5 starts, two tops, two paired tops. Horse ran back to last year's best race then moved ahead.
Finally getting the idea?

Diversify - 110. 6 triple digit Beyers Very fast early last time, first race after pairing two lifetime tops. Could come back strong with the rest.

Gunnivera-109. Still hasn't come within 10 points of last year's form cycle top, Doubt he can move ahead enough to be a factor.

Lone Sailor-95. Seems have peaked out at 93-95. Don't wee any sot for this one to improve.

McKinzie - 107. Improving every start this year. Can move into the 110+ range next time. But he is a 3yo and old are jut as fast or faster.

Mendelssohn - 101. Too slow. Too much to do to catch up, let alone beat the best of the others.

Mind Your Biscuits - 109. Interesting horse,. Only took two route tries, one in the slop, the match his best spring Beyers.Sprinting, his top was 106-109. He could be a better router and blow away to a big new top.

Pavel -104. Too slow. Don't see this guy running with the big boys in here.

West Coast-117. 5 Triple digit Beyers. Could win this with his second best Beyer, even his third. Never made a big move ahead, but several smaller ones. Only one form cycle, he can make a move to beatthisfield and still not tie last year's best. This guy has wiggle room.

Not impressed with anything else.

First pass speed/form cycle looksee.
Finally good to see someone using speed figures rather than playing the "who beat whom" game, the problems of which is precisely the purpose of speed figures to begin with.
However, I wouldn't call Mendy too slow when his U.A.E. Derby figure is the top figure run by any 3YO this year. He seems to be cycling back to that figure now.
His JCGC is better than even the pace adjusted figure shows since even cj has said that at 10 furlongs the TFUS pace adjustments under rate the top performances. He just has to to avoid setting or chasing the early pace in the Classic if it is too fast.
Not saying he's my pick right now. This is a complex race and going to need a long analysis.
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:42 AM   #58
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Any chance Drosselmeyer can make a quick comeback?
Ha, Ha, well Skywalker was pulled out of the breeding shed and came back to racing and won the Classic in '86 so why not.

Tom, do you have numbers for Seeking the Soul?
I am guessing he is too slow, but he does like Churchill so there is a chance he outperforms his odds. Won the Ack Ack at CD as his prep for the Classic. He is listed on the BC contenders page site so I assume they are planning on running him.
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:57 AM   #59
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I’m going to take a long look at McKinzie. Running in the PA Derby is no reason to toss him. West Coast, California Chrome & Will Take Charge all used that prep and fared pretty well in the BCC. The trainer has proven he doesn’t need actual races to get them ready. 10-1 and I’m in (at this point).
I have nothing personal against the PA Derby, but some of those other horses already had deeper resumes against the highest quality 3yos in very big races. In this case you are betting on the horse handling far and away the toughest field he's raced against and still probably needing to run faster to win. To me that's a tough bet unless I am getting a very good price or the trainer is Bob Baffert.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:00 AM   #60
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Finally good to see someone using speed figures rather than playing the "who beat whom" game, the problems of which is precisely the purpose of speed figures to begin with.
However, I wouldn't call Mendy too slow when his U.A.E. Derby figure is the top figure run by any 3YO this year. He seems to be cycling back to that figure now.
His JCGC is better than even the pace adjusted figure shows since even cj has said that at 10 furlongs the TFUS pace adjustments under rate the top performances. He just has to to avoid setting or chasing the early pace in the Classic if it is too fast.
Not saying he's my pick right now. This is a complex race and going to need a long analysis.
Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.

He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than the Gold Cup and being able to keep going when better closers than Discreet Lover are coming at him late. Maybe if they can get him to relax further off it and finish he'd do better, but I don't think I like him even though I agree he's moving forward.
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