Best book for a newbie!!??

[Football-horse420]

Hey I first want to start off by saying this is a wonderful forum you people have been very helpful in answering questions.
I'm kinda of taking a brake from betting because I kinda have hit a wall, I need to regroup and focus. I'm trying to find a good book to read to help me better understand handicapping and betting. These are the books I'm looking into buying what one should I buy to read first

Money secrets at the track

Betting on horse racing for dummies

Handicapping 101: finding the right horses and making the right bets.

Any input on what book I should read first would be a big help...

[thaskalos]

First, read Handicapping 101...but don't stop there. Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer next. You can buy a used hardcover copy at Amazon.com for only a couple of dollars plus shipping.

[Lucky Dave]

Hi Foot,

I'm also a newbie on the board here. I saw your other post too. Your situation is not dissimilar to where I was about five years ago or so when I first started betting the ponies. You might want to re-look your analysis and also how you bet. I'll get to your book question, but here’s what I’ve done, with some success, in my six-year handicapping adventure: I decided to focus on one track, my “home” track. Everyone on the board might laugh, but I like Charles Town (CT), a small “bullring” oval in West Virginia. Love it in fact. It was within driving distance of my house, they ran all year, and they ran at night, when I could actually watch and bet the races. Focusing on this one track allowed me to get a feeling for the trainers, the kinds of horses the track favored (early speed vice closers), the distances of races usually run at the track, how the “class” structure was set up, and even get familiar with the regular horses themselves. I also learned who the top jockeys were and what it meant when they got a particular mount. I no longer live in that part of the country, but I still play that track all the time.

Here is my analytical process:

I use the “speed” figures to get a quick feel for the quality of the horses in the race. The figures help to whittle down and throw out horses that likely have no chance. Don’t take them as gospel – still look at every horse, but there are many (probably half) that can be tossed just by looking at the speed numbers and where the horses have historically finished vs. similar company.

I focus on trainers - they are important to results. There are reasons some of them win at a 25 percent clip. I take their stock seriously. Their horses often go off at short odds, but not always: on this past Saturday night I got almost 5-1 on a solid horse run by a 25 percent winning trainer in a field that only had (what I thought) were three realistic shots to win. Watch good trainers and their stock (and their odds) like a hawk.

I perk up when I see “class drops.” In the above Saturday night race, the same horse that won dropped two levels in class – from higher competition to a lower competitive level. Most of the ten-horse field was simply overmatched. Class can be hidden and overstated too: a horse running well in a $10K race restricted to state-breds may be inferior when when run in a $10K unrestricted race.

Some tracks get a lot of “shippers” from other tracks. Some of the other tracks are “classier,” meaning their horse stock is generally better, even if both run at nominally the same class level, i.e. Clm 10k NW2L. Observe and learn how shippers perform at your home track.

I like races where I have a lot of data, from the same track, to work with. Many horses at CT for example are year-round plodders that run really often against each other – the time series data is great and allows me to really compare apples to apples. (By contrast, I have a tough time with major G1 stakes races – they have horses shipping in from ten different tracks – for me, it is still tough to compare them and the competition they’ve been running against.)

I can’t handicap maiden races to save my soul. I don’t feel like I have enough data. I don’t like comparing horses based on workouts, or pedigree, or first-out trainer stats. So I pass on races that have lots of new runners.

I do pay attention to horse comportment, especially when at the track, but this is not a major factor in my handicapping. I have moved up horses in my picks through observations made in the paddock and post parade.

Regarding my betting: I bet one dollar three horse exacta boxes (total of $6.00), probably for about 60-70 percent of my bets. I’ve noticed that boxing bets drives some people on this board crazy, but for me they work: horses are fickle and have bad days. They get slow starts, bumped at the gate, trapped in traffic, and so on. If I can isolate the top three horses in a ten horse race, I feel like two of the three are likely to have a good run and come in 1 and 2. The extra horse is a hedge. Some folks say that extra horse is dead money, or that maybe “key” boxes are a better strategy. Sometimes yes. I’m flexible and try to find the right bet for the circumstances. But I can’t tell you the number of times when the horse I thought was the best in the race finished in third, or even out of the money. I like the hedge.

I watch the exacta odds as they change before the race. If I’m not going to at least double my money on most of the combinations of the three horses I’m going to bet, I probably will pass on the bet entirely. This is a subjective process.

I pass on a lot of races. This is hard. I like the action of betting. If I look at a race and can’t tell who the top three horses are, I definitely wait for the next race. Sometimes, I might see an interesting long shot angle and might make a $2.00 bet on that shot – sometimes to win, more often just to show, just because I like the action.

I also bet .10 supers and occasionally trifectas, depending upon whether I see value in doing that. But overall, I’m an exacta guy.

Find PPs that you like and stick with them. Consistency helps. I like the Bris PPs that I get for free with my TwinSpires account. They have nice pace figures and race class ratings that I find really valuable for comparing horses. Their power-ratings also have encouraged me to give a second look to some horses that I’ve discarded. When I travel and visit tracks and have to use DRF or Equibase PPs, I miss my Bris tools.

Don’t be biased by the opinions of others. I don’t look at who Bris or track analysts predict will win until after I’ve done my own handicapping and picked my own winners. I’ll compare my work against outside opinion, but it is rare that I change my picks.

The above has been a winning strategy for me. I’m up over the last six years of playing – on average I've probably played once per week, a little less frequently recently, because of work and family commitments.

Back to your main question. Of the books, I recommend “Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century” by Steve Davidowitz. It is a good start.

Have fun. If it stops being fun, stop doing it, like you did. Make "paper" bets for a while. I’ve walked away from the game after dry spells where I couldn’t pick a winner many times. But I keep coming back because it is an awesome "thinking-man’s" game. Good luck.

[whodoyoulike]

I would suggest you start with a book which will introduce you to various aspects of horse racing. If handicapping 101 is Free's book, I've heard it was a good primer but I've never read it. But, I have read Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds (1995) years ago which was pretty good. It was sort of an update of things up to that time to know about handicapping / horse racing compared to the first book which I read by Ainslie (1968). Since then there has to be others with a good reputation for beginners and intermediate.

Money Secrets as I recall was more about being aware of betting value because sometimes even 3/5's can be a lock but, not with my money.

In another thread about a year ago, I suggested a book about Pace Handicapping but that may be a little too advanced as a beginning book. If he reads this, I hope it worked out for him (or them). But, hopefully you will eventually read a book about Pace and see the merits it offers. It really made a lot of sense to me regarding the relationship of Pace, Speed, Class and Form.

You actually have to sit up before you can get up. And, if someone wants to use that phrase in one of their pending books you can.

[delayjf]

If I had to pick one book it would be the latest version of Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds. He covers everything from speed and pace handicapping to bias and trainer handicapping in a very comprehensive manner.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

First, read Handicapping 101...but don't stop there. Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer next. You can buy a used hardcover copy at Amazon.com for only a couple of dollars plus shipping.

I wish I would've read TWH first instead of Picking Winners, but I went by the amount of PP's listed in each book as a decider(this was '88 or '89 and was first getting started). I have yet to read 101, but will read anything that will help me be a more efficient student of the game. As noted above, Steve Davidowitz's book cannot be ignored, and should also be purchased and it's relatively cheap on the Amazon.

Thoughts on Ainslie's The Compleat Horseplayer for our OP?

With regard to wagering styles or formats, 420, I'll recommend Exotic Wagering Formulas by Thomas Walters. Coil bound, easy to read book, with just some basic exacta and tri wagers that I found helpful. There are more advanced exotic wagers detailed, but it's a good starting point for exactas. $20 bucks on line.

As you get more into the pace aspect, Thaskalos once advised I purchase Pace Makes the Race by Tom Hambleton & Dick Schmidt. Common sense approach to an important piece of the puzzle, and I'm glad I listened to what the man said.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

Hey I first want to start off by saying this is a wonderful forum you people have been very helpful in answering questions.
I'm kinda of taking a brake from betting because I kinda have hit a wall, I need to regroup and focus. I'm trying to find a good book to read to help me better understand handicapping and betting. These are the books I'm looking into buying what one should I buy to read first

Money secrets at the track

Betting on horse racing for dummies

Handicapping 101: finding the right horses and making the right bets.

Any input on what book I should read first would be a big help...

Start off with Barry Meadows money secrets at the racetrack. Learn how to bet well first. Then once you have a grasp of that, learn how to handicap(read the good handicapping books). Once you figure out the handicapping, then re-read Barry's book. At that point practice making fair odds lines without betting. Make lines, and see what is happening. Who is winning horses you make 6-1 winning at 2-1 or horses you make 4-1 at 8-1. When there is a big difference between what you have made a horse and what the public has made a horse figure out why. Were you right or wrong and what did you miss? After you have lined about 100 races or so(which would likely be about 20 to 30 racing days), you should have a fairly good idea whether you are ready for action or not. When you are ready, dive in at a very comfortable bankroll, start with win betting only(or win/place betting-I prefer equal amounts win-place because it keeps the losing streaks down). Wait till you are fairly successful before branching into exotics(you have a lot more margin for error with win betting). I know the majority of posters here do not believe in making lines, but initially whether you choose to continue to do so or not, it is a very good way to measure your handicapping and see where you are. The key to winning is identifying value and the best way to identify value(IMO) is to be able to determine fair value on each runner (as close as you possibly can). Also if you have the time, once you feel you have handicapping down, make watching replays a priority. Both during your handicapping and in analyzing your performance. By the way, if you do not have a lot of spare time, I do not recommend trying to beat the races. It is a lot of fun, but a lot of work.

The bottom line is work hard at building a solid foundation and developing good habits. Track and measure your performance and start betting when you have convinced yourself that you are ready. That will give you the best chance of success IMO. Once you do start betting, especially when you start betting exotics, make sure you chart how much you bet on each kind of bet and how much you win or lose. You have to keep score and know where your leaks are(or at least where you need to improve).

By the way if lining 100 races without betting pains you(I get it), just bet on a small bankroll (an amount of money that you are willing to lose without causing yourself hardship) and expect to lose initially until you figure things out. If you start winning you can increase your bankroll with profits.

[Charlie]

Calibration Handicapping is a darn good read.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Tall One

...
Thoughts on Ainslie's The Compleat Horseplayer for our OP? ...

Fortunately this was my first handicapping book. It was very well written for the time and as mentioned previously by me, it covered different aspects using the DRF. S. Davidowitz's book I felt was just an updated version. Remember though that Ainslie's book was written before replays and Trakus were readily available. He used 5 lengths per second which a lot of people still use although I think it's incorrect. In other words, I thought it was excellent as an intro for me at the time but now there are others available.

As I recall, he favored Class handicapping.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Lucky Dave

Hi Foot,

I'm also a newbie on the board here. I saw your other post too. Your situation is not dissimilar to where I was about five years ago or so when I first started betting the ponies. You might want to re-look your analysis and also how you bet. I'll get to your book question, but here’s what I’ve done, with some success, in my six-year handicapping adventure: I decided to focus on one track, my “home” track. Everyone on the board might laugh, but I like Charles Town (CT), a small “bullring” oval in West Virginia. Love it in fact. It was within driving distance of my house, they ran all year, and they ran at night, when I could actually watch and bet the races. Focusing on this one track allowed me to get a feeling for the trainers, the kinds of horses the track favored (early speed vice closers), the distances of races usually run at the track, how the “class” structure was set up, and even get familiar with the regular horses themselves. I also learned who the top jockeys were and what it meant when they got a particular mount. I no longer live in that part of the country, but I still play that track all the time.

Here is my analytical process:

I use the “speed” figures to get a quick feel for the quality of the horses in the race. The figures help to whittle down and throw out horses that likely have no chance. Don’t take them as gospel – still look at every horse, but there are many (probably half) that can be tossed just by looking at the speed numbers and where the horses have historically finished vs. similar company.

I focus on trainers - they are important to results. There are reasons some of them win at a 25 percent clip. I take their stock seriously. Their horses often go off at short odds, but not always: on this past Saturday night I got almost 5-1 on a solid horse run by a 25 percent winning trainer in a field that only had (what I thought) were three realistic shots to win. Watch good trainers and their stock (and their odds) like a hawk.

I perk up when I see “class drops.” In the above Saturday night race, the same horse that won dropped two levels in class – from higher competition to a lower competitive level. Most of the ten-horse field was simply overmatched. Class can be hidden and overstated too: a horse running well in a $10K race restricted to state-breds may be inferior when when run in a $10K unrestricted race.

Some tracks get a lot of “shippers” from other tracks. Some of the other tracks are “classier,” meaning their horse stock is generally better, even if both run at nominally the same class level, i.e. Clm 10k NW2L. Observe and learn how shippers perform at your home track.

I like races where I have a lot of data, from the same track, to work with. Many horses at CT for example are year-round plodders that run really often against each other – the time series data is great and allows me to really compare apples to apples. (By contrast, I have a tough time with major G1 stakes races – they have horses shipping in from ten different tracks – for me, it is still tough to compare them and the competition they’ve been running against.)

I can’t handicap maiden races to save my soul. I don’t feel like I have enough data. I don’t like comparing horses based on workouts, or pedigree, or first-out trainer stats. So I pass on races that have lots of new runners.

I do pay attention to horse comportment, especially when at the track, but this is not a major factor in my handicapping. I have moved up horses in my picks through observations made in the paddock and post parade.

Regarding my betting: I bet one dollar three horse exacta boxes (total of $6.00), probably for about 60-70 percent of my bets. I’ve noticed that boxing bets drives some people on this board crazy, but for me they work: horses are fickle and have bad days. They get slow starts, bumped at the gate, trapped in traffic, and so on. If I can isolate the top three horses in a ten horse race, I feel like two of the three are likely to have a good run and come in 1 and 2. The extra horse is a hedge. Some folks say that extra horse is dead money, or that maybe “key” boxes are a better strategy. Sometimes yes. I’m flexible and try to find the right bet for the circumstances. But I can’t tell you the number of times when the horse I thought was the best in the race finished in third, or even out of the money. I like the hedge.

I watch the exacta odds as they change before the race. If I’m not going to at least double my money on most of the combinations of the three horses I’m going to bet, I probably will pass on the bet entirely. This is a subjective process.

I pass on a lot of races. This is hard. I like the action of betting. If I look at a race and can’t tell who the top three horses are, I definitely wait for the next race. Sometimes, I might see an interesting long shot angle and might make a $2.00 bet on that shot – sometimes to win, more often just to show, just because I like the action.

I also bet .10 supers and occasionally trifectas, depending upon whether I see value in doing that. But overall, I’m an exacta guy.

Find PPs that you like and stick with them. Consistency helps. I like the Bris PPs that I get for free with my TwinSpires account. They have nice pace figures and race class ratings that I find really valuable for comparing horses. Their power-ratings also have encouraged me to give a second look to some horses that I’ve discarded. When I travel and visit tracks and have to use DRF or Equibase PPs, I miss my Bris tools.

Don’t be biased by the opinions of others. I don’t look at who Bris or track analysts predict will win until after I’ve done my own handicapping and picked my own winners. I’ll compare my work against outside opinion, but it is rare that I change my picks.

The above has been a winning strategy for me. I’m up over the last six years of playing – on average I've probably played once per week, a little less frequently recently, because of work and family commitments.

Back to your main question. Of the books, I recommend “Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century” by Steve Davidowitz. It is a good start.

Have fun. If it stops being fun, stop doing it, like you did. Make "paper" bets for a while. I’ve walked away from the game after dry spells where I couldn’t pick a winner many times. But I keep coming back because it is an awesome "thinking-man’s" game. Good luck.

That's pretty sound advice that you've put forward Lucky Dave.

Greyfox

[Greybase]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I would suggest you start with a book which will introduce you to various aspects of horse racing. If handicapping 101 is Free's book, I've heard it was a good primer but I've never read it. But, I have read Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds (1995) years ago ...

I've read all these and would definitely say Handicapping 101, by Brad Free, is your best bet for an Introduction to handicapping. Very well written, he's also been a regular for Daily Racing Form, and he does go into some depth on the important factors: Class, Form, Speed.

So that's my #1 because it's more recent but otherwise, Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn for years was probably the best "all around" Intro to the game, and Quinn is one of my favorite turf writers. R-C could be Out of print however (?) He does have a newer book called the Compete Handicapper which I've not read yet but pretty sure it's more advanced (and also more $.) but would be a good investment.

Beyer On Speed, by Andrew Beyer, is a pretty good commonly available book that a newbie could benefit from... Davidowitz' books are classics, sure but Steve gets into a bit more advanced stuff like Key Race theory, synthetic Dirt, exotic wagering etc. which are great topics but not exactly beginner material IMHO

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Lucky Dave

Hi Foot,

I'm also a newbie on the board here. I saw your other post too. Your situation is not dissimilar to where I was about five years ago or so when I first started betting the ponies. You might want to re-look your analysis and also how you bet. I'll get to your book question, but here’s what I’ve done, with some success, in my six-year handicapping adventure: I decided to focus on one track, my “home” track. Everyone on the board might laugh, but I like Charles Town (CT), a small “bullring” oval in West Virginia. Love it in fact. It was within driving distance of my house, they ran all year, and they ran at night, when I could actually watch and bet the races. Focusing on this one track allowed me to get a feeling for the trainers, the kinds of horses the track favored (early speed vice closers), the distances of races usually run at the track, how the “class” structure was set up, and even get familiar with the regular horses themselves. I also learned who the top jockeys were and what it meant when they got a particular mount. I no longer live in that part of the country, but I still play that track all the time.

Here is my analytical process:

I use the “speed” figures to get a quick feel for the quality of the horses in the race. The figures help to whittle down and throw out horses that likely have no chance. Don’t take them as gospel – still look at every horse, but there are many (probably half) that can be tossed just by looking at the speed numbers and where the horses have historically finished vs. similar company.

I focus on trainers - they are important to results. There are reasons some of them win at a 25 percent clip. I take their stock seriously. Their horses often go off at short odds, but not always: on this past Saturday night I got almost 5-1 on a solid horse run by a 25 percent winning trainer in a field that only had (what I thought) were three realistic shots to win. Watch good trainers and their stock (and their odds) like a hawk.

I perk up when I see “class drops.” In the above Saturday night race, the same horse that won dropped two levels in class – from higher competition to a lower competitive level. Most of the ten-horse field was simply overmatched. Class can be hidden and overstated too: a horse running well in a $10K race restricted to state-breds may be inferior when when run in a $10K unrestricted race.

Some tracks get a lot of “shippers” from other tracks. Some of the other tracks are “classier,” meaning their horse stock is generally better, even if both run at nominally the same class level, i.e. Clm 10k NW2L. Observe and learn how shippers perform at your home track.

I like races where I have a lot of data, from the same track, to work with. Many horses at CT for example are year-round plodders that run really often against each other – the time series data is great and allows me to really compare apples to apples. (By contrast, I have a tough time with major G1 stakes races – they have horses shipping in from ten different tracks – for me, it is still tough to compare them and the competition they’ve been running against.)

I can’t handicap maiden races to save my soul. I don’t feel like I have enough data. I don’t like comparing horses based on workouts, or pedigree, or first-out trainer stats. So I pass on races that have lots of new runners.

I do pay attention to horse comportment, especially when at the track, but this is not a major factor in my handicapping. I have moved up horses in my picks through observations made in the paddock and post parade.

Regarding my betting: I bet one dollar three horse exacta boxes (total of $6.00), probably for about 60-70 percent of my bets. I’ve noticed that boxing bets drives some people on this board crazy, but for me they work: horses are fickle and have bad days. They get slow starts, bumped at the gate, trapped in traffic, and so on. If I can isolate the top three horses in a ten horse race, I feel like two of the three are likely to have a good run and come in 1 and 2. The extra horse is a hedge. Some folks say that extra horse is dead money, or that maybe “key” boxes are a better strategy. Sometimes yes. I’m flexible and try to find the right bet for the circumstances. But I can’t tell you the number of times when the horse I thought was the best in the race finished in third, or even out of the money. I like the hedge.

I watch the exacta odds as they change before the race. If I’m not going to at least double my money on most of the combinations of the three horses I’m going to bet, I probably will pass on the bet entirely. This is a subjective process.

I pass on a lot of races. This is hard. I like the action of betting. If I look at a race and can’t tell who the top three horses are, I definitely wait for the next race. Sometimes, I might see an interesting long shot angle and might make a $2.00 bet on that shot – sometimes to win, more often just to show, just because I like the action.

I also bet .10 supers and occasionally trifectas, depending upon whether I see value in doing that. But overall, I’m an exacta guy.

Find PPs that you like and stick with them. Consistency helps. I like the Bris PPs that I get for free with my TwinSpires account. They have nice pace figures and race class ratings that I find really valuable for comparing horses. Their power-ratings also have encouraged me to give a second look to some horses that I’ve discarded. When I travel and visit tracks and have to use DRF or Equibase PPs, I miss my Bris tools.

Don’t be biased by the opinions of others. I don’t look at who Bris or track analysts predict will win until after I’ve done my own handicapping and picked my own winners. I’ll compare my work against outside opinion, but it is rare that I change my picks.

The above has been a winning strategy for me. I’m up over the last six years of playing – on average I've probably played once per week, a little less frequently recently, because of work and family commitments.

Back to your main question. Of the books, I recommend “Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century” by Steve Davidowitz. It is a good start.

Have fun. If it stops being fun, stop doing it, like you did. Make "paper" bets for a while. I’ve walked away from the game after dry spells where I couldn’t pick a winner many times. But I keep coming back because it is an awesome "thinking-man’s" game. Good luck.

That's a damn good post for a guy that doesn't have some of the scars others have. You've handled your introduction period into horse race playing very well, it appears.

[DeltaLover]

Besides getting introduced to the very basics of the game, do not expect too much more from the existing horse betting literature.

If you are serious about the game, go ahead and start building a charts database, watch a ton of replays, educated yourself about statistics and be ready for a long learning curve that will cost a ton of losing bets..

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by Greybase

I've read all these and would definitely say Handicapping 101, by Brad Free, is your best bet for an Introduction to handicapping. Very well written, he's also been a regular for Daily Racing Form, and he does go into some depth on the important factors: Class, Form, Speed.

So that's my #1 because it's more recent but otherwise, Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn for years was probably the best "all around" Intro to the game, and Quinn is one of my favorite turf writers. R-C could be Out of print however (?) He does have a newer book called the Compete Handicapper which I've not read yet but pretty sure it's more advanced (and also more $.) but would be a good investment.

Beyer On Speed, by Andrew Beyer, is a pretty good commonly available book that a newbie could benefit from... Davidowitz' books are classics, sure but Steve gets into a bit more advanced stuff like Key Race theory, synthetic Dirt, exotic wagering etc. which are great topics but not exactly beginner material IMHO

I second this, Grey. Never leaves my bedside table. Very nice approach and intro to pace inside.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Football-horse420

Hey I first want to start off by saying this is a wonderful forum you people have been very helpful in answering questions.
I'm kinda of taking a brake from betting because I kinda have hit a wall, I need to regroup and focus. I'm trying to find a good book to read to help me better understand handicapping and betting. These are the books I'm looking into buying what one should I buy to read first

Money secrets at the track

Betting on horse racing for dummies

Handicapping 101: finding the right horses and making the right bets.

Any input on what book I should read first would be a big help...

Handicapping 101 is the best one on your list. Money Secrets just says guess your horse's chances and bet on him if you get a 50% bump on the tote-board. Not bad advice, but that's the whole book in a nutshell.

If you can find the late Danny Holmes 'Ten Steps to Winning', I would suggest that one.