RTY Trading Testbed [Record = 14 for 64 | -3.70pts | -$185.00 per contract]

[PaceAdvantage]

So in a purely statistical realm, on January 10, with a record of 14 wins out of 43 trades (which is about a 33% hit rate), my chances of losing the next 21 trades in a row stood at about .253%...in other words, really, really miniscule.

In hindsight though, with my record currently at 14 wins out of 64 trades, losing 21 races in a row had a 5.6% chance of happening.

Still pretty small, but not unheard of...so obviously I haven't even begun to establish this method's true hit rate...which is why I want to go to at least 100 trades before I call it quits.

Looking at the chart from January 10 until now, it doesn't look all that unusual. There was no period of sideways action that might account for losing so many trades...in fact from January 10 to now, the market has trended nicely upwards.

For some reason, I am just getting stopped out rather quickly in every trade lately...even trades where my stop is on the larger side.

Definitely not giving up yet on this thread.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I am going to suspend this thread for now...I really can't find a concrete reason why I've lost so many trades in a row...other than, I just got lucky for a couple of months and this method isn't ready for prime time...

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Actually, I am going to suspend this thread for now...I really can't find a concrete reason why I've lost so many trades in a row...other than, I just got lucky for a couple of months and this method isn't ready for prime time...

I can't offer an answer, but truth be told, but for a longest time now it seems to me anyway there are huge reversal days. Thursday was another example in my eyes. If anyone could put a finger on it, I'd like to know the reasons, if true, if any.

[Jeff P]

Turns out yesterday's reversal was caused by a giant block ($5 Billion) of S&P 500 e-mini futures options.

ZeroHedge story here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sh...have-ever-seen


-jp
.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Turns out yesterday's reversal was caused by a giant block ($5 Billion) of S&P 500 e-mini futures options.

ZeroHedge story here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sh...have-ever-seen


-jp
.

Interesting commentary....

[vegasone]

What has the ATR been lately? Might be a clue as to where your stops should be or if you should be a bystander.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by vegasone

What has the ATR been lately? Might be a clue as to where your stops should be or if you should be a bystander.

During the losing streak, I haven't been able to discern anything that radically changed such as ATR...if I am wrong, please let me know.

[vegasone]

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quo...nical-analysis


Don't know if any of these would affect your system.


I do know the price swings have been quite scary in some ways.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm going to be taking another look at everything this weekend...depending on what I discover, or don't discover, this thread may rise again...lol

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Turns out yesterday's reversal was caused by a giant block ($5 Billion) of S&P 500 e-mini futures options.

ZeroHedge story here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sh...have-ever-seen


-jp
.

Thank you Jeff for the reply and link.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Actually, I am going to suspend this thread for now...I really can't find a concrete reason why I've lost so many trades in a row...other than, I just got lucky for a couple of months and this method isn't ready for prime time...

I am going to start a new thread the next time I get a trade signal.

I suspended this current thread long enough to miss a 22 point winner on Friday...

Of course.

I'll probably go into another 21 trade losing streak now.

But seriously folks, I just went over every trade on my charts since September when I came up with this, and found something that eliminates a few losers from the streak...six to be exact (and only 14.5 points worth of losses) -- not enough to make a huge dent on the 21 trade losing streak, but at least it's something.

I think this method still holds promise. I am going to adhere to it 100% strictly in the new thread (unlike some of the garbage I did in this thread that cost some serious points) and try and run it the rest of the year.

Minus the bragging when I am winning (if I am fortunate enough to win).

I might still call out Alton from time to time though if I start winning again...