Quote:
Originally Posted by dartman51
HH, don't let the naysayers get to you.
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H, I was going to post the same thing yesterday but I got distracted. Job comes first but I know through our communications that when you have time, you generously give it to enhance Doug and Handi's and now, your work.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion and should feel free to post, hopefully in a reasonable manner. Contrary opinions can help enhance what we've got.
I think you're pretty familiar with how I use the program playing SoCal only for the most part, but here's a couple from yesterday that are not atypical:
Race 9: Top FAST & PWR #. Asay Creek $16.20
Race 8: Top PWR # tie. Zardana $24.00
Race 7: Top PWR #. Kris Silver $12.00
Race 6: Win and place were 1st time starters.
Race 5: Top PWR #. Aquicksting $8.40 (This guy was 1-25, running at his lowest class ever, and bet down from his 6-1 ML - not a bet for me - risk vs. reward. Mel Stute and Bill Thomas must have laid a nice bet as well)
Race 4: Top FAST and 3-way tie for Top PWR #. Smokenomore $7.40
Race 3: Riviera Cocktail was too low ranked to get either in FAST or PWR. As you know, I do my points SOLELY on 4 factors: DS, FM, PC, TF with 100 points on each. Yes, the TF factor seems to work very well for Polytrack).
On that basis, Riviera and the place horse were tied for 1st with 250 points each. Guess I got lucky.
Win mutuel: $16.00 $1 exacta: $27.10
Race 2: Top PWR #. Gambling Pokerface $13.80
Race 1: 2nd PWR #. Skippy Due $13.40
Yesterday was a bit atypical maybe insofar as the # of winners contained in the top FAST and PWR numbers and their mutuels but really, for a free program that is fairly automatic, if you stick with it, it is pretty amazing.
For non poly players, I did play MNR on a lark on 11-21. I know nothing about MNR, how it plays, etc. Only change I made was to switch the 100 pts. from TF to DT.
While the FAST and PWR #'s produce nada until the 7th race, my 3rd "points" horses in Race 1 and Race 4 produced nice mutuels: Bevy $21.40 and Unsung Angels $14.40.
The 7th race was the gift where the 2nd PWR # produced a $51.80 mutuel - Loot Tooten Trudy. She was 4th ranked FAST. The place horse was 3rd ranked FAST/PWR and the show horse was 2nd ranked FAST. They were also my 2nd and 4th ranked points horses. If you play exactas and tris, some pretty nice mutuels.
Basically, to keep it simple, all I try and do is look for value in the top 4 and ties FAST and PWR ranks and in my 4 "points" horses.
The toughest thing for me has been not to disregard or talk myself off program choices because I think they may be ridiculous based on my ingrained handicapping style/knowledge.
In the last at HOL on 12-03, the 4th ranked FAST and my 3rd ranked points horse is a 30-1 ML shot. The horse is going off at 64-1, has a 74 day layoff, non winning trainer and jock, and of his 6 races, he did have a 3rd by 10.25 lengths finish at DMR. He does have a few catalysts, so to speak, but I completely dismiss him.
Well, in a MCL 25K route, the 3rd PWR rank wins @ $14.80. The 4th rank PWR shows and the 1st rank PWR finishes 4th. Our homely friend, Nubian Princess, places @ $43.20 and I still don't have the stomach to look at the exotic mutuels.
I attached the print screen so you can get sick or laugh!
All I can say is stick with a consistent approach and this little free program is strong.