*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[Dan H]

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

(Before scratches) (Possible Spot Plays In Races 1, 3, 6, 7, 8)

R01) #7 Straight to Go ...... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 4 .............. Listed On #1 Power Number ... Listed on Speed Plus ... Listed On Class of Speed
R02) #3 Centsless Drama .. Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ....
R03) #1 Fast Loaded ......... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... Listed On #1 Power Number ... Listed On Class of Speed
R04) None ........................ Rejected two LRH, rest are FTS .......
R05) #10 Just Like Mike ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 4 ...............
R06) #5 Volata ................. Accepted by Rules 1, 2 .................. Listed On #1 Power Number ... Listed On Class of Speed
R07) #7 My Destiny ........... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... Listed On Tr/Jky Money Move
R08) #3 Flamingo Hawk ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ....... Listed On #1 Power Number
R09) #9 Future Princess ..... Accepted by Rules 1, 2 ..................

[Dan H]

Last post today. I promise. Not sure anybody's followng.

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

(After scratches) (Spot Plays In Races 1, 3, 6, 7)

R01) #7 Straight to .... Power Number / Speed Plus / Class of Speed / $2 WP (7/2 ML)
R02) #3 Centsless ......
R03) #1 Fast Loaded .. Power Number / Class of Speed / $2 WP (8/1 ML)
R04) None .................
R05) #10 Just Like M...
R06) #5 Volata ........... Power Number / Class of Speed / (4/1 ML) $2 DD
R07) #7 My Destiny .... Tr/Jky Money Move / (8/1 ML) $2 DD
R08) #3 Flamingo H. ... Power Number / Pass (2/1 ML)
R09) #9 Future Prin. ....

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Dan H

Last post today. I promise. Not sure anybody's followng.

People are following, trust me. By tonight you'll have a thousand more views. I thought PA Mike had promised me a penny for every view on this thread--he said I misunderstood.

I'm supposed to be paying HIM a penny a view, for advertising.

[green80]

Everybody has their methods but I stay ahead just betting the top power # when it goes off at "good" odds. You can do your tweaking at each track for the optimum odds setting.



Today at Belmont, 8th race, top power (after scratches)



DancingwithDaffodls $46.20 11.40 4.30

[Dan H]

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 09 Pace-Setter Predictions using Trainer Moves

Results

R01) #7 Straight to .... $2 WP (7/2 ML) (5/2 PTO) Led at 2C - Finished 3rd - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R02) #3 Centsless ................ (5/1 ML) (5/2 PTO) Led at 2C - Finished 1st - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R03) #1 Fast Loade .... $2 WP (8/1 ML) (3/1 PTO) 3L back at 2C - Finished OTB - Up Close Pace-Setter
R04) None .................
R05) #10 Just Like M ........... (9/2 ML) (10/1 PTO) 6L back at 2C - Finished OTB - Failed Pace-Setter
R06) #5 Volata ........... $2 DD (5/1 ML) (2/1 PTO) 1L back at 2C - Finished 1st - Legitimate Pace-Setter
R07) #7 My Destiny ..... $2 DD (8/1 ML) (6/1 PTO) 3L back at 2C - Finished 4th - Up Close Pace-Setter
R08) #3 Flamingo H. ............. (2/1 ML) (4/5 PTO) 6L back at 2C - Finished 2nd - Failed Pace-Setter
R09) #9 Future Prin. ........... (12/1 ML) (13/1 PTO) 8L back at 2C - Finished OTB - Failed Pace-Setter

Bet Log: Wagered $12 - Lost $12

Today's Notes:

1. Though a small sample size, I trust the use the 2C pace number in Trainer Moves software.
2. For the races I wagered, Power Number / Class of Speed / Speed Plus pointed to strong finishers (1st thru 4th) in three races.
3. I think the next logical step is to compare pace-setters to the other E and EP horses to gauge the effects of pace pressure.
4. Do NOT blind bet pace-setters (fulcrums).

DanH

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

People are following, trust me. By tonight you'll have a thousand more views. I thought PA Mike had promised me a penny for every view on this thread--he said I misunderstood.

I'm supposed to be paying HIM a penny a view, for advertising.

Even the guys I cut a break to bust my balls.

What is this world coming to?

[sharkey11]

Crop circles ! why dont you buy something

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Even the guys I cut a break to bust my balls.

What is this world coming to?

Whenever I ask you about the cost for an

advertising sign or something...you inevitably begin your spiel with
"Since I like you, I'll give you a break"

Well, thank God for that! Hate to see what your rates would be if you DIDN'T like me

[Dan H]

Used the run rules in Post # 7378 of this thread, but added a mandatory class factor to selection criteria. This took about 60 minutes to complete - much of that typing into this post.

R01) #6 Ethos .... Met 3 of 7 rules ... (3/1) Power Number / Top Prime / Top APV / Top EPS
R02) None
R03) #7 Baham .. Met 5 of 7 rules ... (2/1) Power Number / Class of Speed / Top Prime / Near Top EPS
R04) None
R05) #7 Theun ... Met 6 of 7 rules ... (3/1) Power Number / Top Prime / Top TMPACE
R06) #5 Shea ..... Met 7 of 7 rules ... (5/2) Power Number / Top Prime / Top TMPACE
R07) None
R08) #2 Velvet ... Met 6 of 7 Rules ... (3/1) Power Number / Early Speed / Near Top APV
R09) #10 Rebe ... Met 3 of 7 Rules ... (7/2) Top LATE / Near Top SPD / Near Top APV / Near Top EPS
R10) #8 Foster ... Met 7 of 7 Rules ... (5/2) Power Number / Top Prime / Top LATE / Top SPD
R11) #6 I Kick .... Met 7 of 7 Rules ... (2/1) Power Number / Early Speed / Top Prime / Top SPD / Top TMPACE
R12) #1 Real T ... Met 4 of 7 Rules ... (9/2) Power Number / Near Top Prime / Near Top SPD / Near Top TMPACE
R13) #9 Unimp ... Met 4 of 7 Rules ... (10/1) Power Number / Class of Sp / Near Top APV

On the surface, it looks like my Pace-Setter rules and Trainer Moves software pointed to mostly chalk on today's GP card.

Bet Log: $2 WP on each Pace-Setter = $40.00 total

[NorCalGreg]

Dan:

Your selections look like mostly chalk because the more "rules" you require...brings you closer to the favorite. Obvious top speed, top power, etc might not get you the winner, but are usually overbet and not playable.

I would possibly bet the last two selections, and pass the rest.

Good luck

-NCG

[Dan H]

Used the run rules in Post # 7378 of this thread. This took about 32 minutes to complete - much of that typing into this post.

R01) #3 Cou . 5 of 7 rules . (9/2) Power Number / Early Speed
R02) #5 Poin . 4 of 7 rules . (9/5) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top LATE, EPS
R03) None
R04) #5 Disc . 5 of 7 rules . (6/5) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top Prime, LATE, SPD, EP
R05) #3 Abr .. 5 of 7 rules . (7/2) Near Top TMPACE
R06) #5 Fini .. 7 of 7 rules . (3/1) Power Number / Class of Sp / Near Top Prime / Top EPS
R07) #1 Ade .. 4 of 7 rules . (7/2) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top Prime / Near Top SPD
R08) None

[NorCalGreg]

Gonna try and get a lucky pick-4 @ GPX:

[green80]

Originally Posted by Dan H

Used the run rules in Post # 7378 of this thread. This took about 32 minutes to complete - much of that typing into this post.

R01) #3 Cou . 5 of 7 rules . (9/2) Power Number / Early Speed
R02) #5 Poin . 4 of 7 rules . (9/5) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top LATE, EPS
R03) None
R04) #5 Disc . 5 of 7 rules . (6/5) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top Prime, LATE, SPD, EP
R05) #3 Abr .. 5 of 7 rules . (7/2) Near Top TMPACE
R06) #5 Fini .. 7 of 7 rules . (3/1) Power Number / Class of Sp / Near Top Prime / Top EPS
R07) #1 Ade .. 4 of 7 rules . (7/2) Power Number / Class of Sp / Top Prime / Near Top SPD
R08) None

Using 7 rules you're not going to find many horses with value. If you could narrow it down to one or 2 rules you may get a horse or 2 with decent odds.

[Dan H]

Gulfstream Park 2021 07 10 Pace-Setter Results

R01) #6 Ethos .... (3/1) Leader at 2C .. Finished 1st at (1/1) $4.20 .. $2.80
R02) None
R03) #7 Baham .. (2/1) 2L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (1/1)
R04) None
R05) #7 Theun ... (3/1) 3L Back at 2C .. Finished OTB at (4/1)
R06) #5 Shea ..... (5/2) 4L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (6/5)
R07) None
R08) #2 Velvet ... (3/1) 6L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (5/2)
R09) #10 Rebe ... (7/2) Scratched
R10) #8 Foster ... (5/2) 1L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (7/2)
R11) #6 I Kick .... (2/1) Scratched
R12) #1 Real T ... (9/2) 1L Back at 2C .. Finished 2nd at (6/1) $6.40
R13) #9 Unimp ... (10/1) 2L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (12/1)

Bet Log: Bet $32 .. Won $13.40 (notional)
Bet Log: Bet $8 .... Won $6.40 (after Greg's advice to bet value)

----------------------------------------------------

Emerald Downs 2021 07 10 Pace-Setters

R01) #3 Cou .. (9/2) 3L Back at 2C .. Finished 3rd at (7/2)
R02) #5 Poin .. (9/5) Leader at 2C .. Finished 1st at (1/1)
R03) None
R04) #5 Disc .. (6/5) Leader at 2C .. Finished 2nd at (1/5)
R05) #3 Abr ... (7/2) 6L Back at 2C .. Finished 4th at (2/1)
R06) #5 Fini ... (3/1) Leader at 2C .. Finished 3rd at (2/1)
R07) #1 Ade ... (7/2) Leader at 2C .. Finished 3rd at (2/1)
R08) None

Notes:
1. Still a small sample size, but this exercise continues to back the 2C pace figure in the Trainer Moves software, which is what I set out to test.
2. A positive side effect of this exercise is the record-keeping of results in this thread. It forced me watch race replays through a different lens. Three lengths back seems a lot in distance but really isn't much in time (3/5 of a second). Yet is still enough to impact the results.
3. What remains for me, is whether I wish to continue to spend 30 minutes per track to predict pace-setters - probably not, since I trust the 2C pace figure in the software.

[timtam]

Great day Saturday at GPX Consensus hit early pick 3 for 1075 highlighted by # 12 paying $ 40.40 Hit the tri in race 7 from Consensus 93 for .50 Trainer moves in race 8 payed $ 32.80 The first pick 3 I mentioned was for $2 so you can do the math as well as many other winners listed. I think I remember when Greg didn't care for Gpx my times have changed. I was an original customer and my computer crashed and Greg just got me back to where I was NO CHARGE. He's tops in my book.