Pick 4 only players

[Midnight Cruiser]

I have become strictly a P4 and occasional P3 player exclusively. Anyone out there with any tips or strategies as far as this type of discipline? I have been trying to mostly play each ticket with a single and keeping my investment under 60 dollars. Also, once you have a couple of legs home, tell me your feelings and strategy if any on hedging.

Merry Christmas and here's to your health.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rsRasrg8ww


MC

[Uncle Salty]

I like the pick 4 as well, but I find its really only worth the investment if I have one of my singles at around 9/2 or higher and a couple of my secondary picks at 8-1or higher.

Of course this is going off the morning line, but I find that to be reliable enough.

[Beachbabe]

I've never hedged. That can get quite expensive, depending if you're hedging to make a profit on your total investment or if you're just trying to cut down on your loss, & I have limited income.
I don't always single and never single on the last race in the sequence (thats just a thing with me....I feel like I can't have all that work that went into the first 3 races hinge on one lonely pick in the last).

I play pick 3's & pick 4's frequently and the negative aspect for me is that I've become someone who finds it increasingly difficult to narrow a race down to one horse....whereas, in days gone by, when I used to bet to win, I really worked at gleaning the horse who had the best chance to win.

JMHO.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Midnight Cruiser

I have become strictly a P4 and occasional P3 player exclusively.

MC

1. Prove yourself as a Pick 3 player first.

2. If efficient at that, then play the Pick 4.

If you haven't done that, good luck.

[raybo]

I've never been a picks player, but, if I were to tackle it, I believe I would attack it like I did with the other exotics. I would start with the Double, progress to the 3, then the 4, etc..

I think my ticket structure would be similar to my superfecta structure, I'd just reorder the races to resemble my super tickets, the most callable race on top (single or double picks), then the next most callable race (double or triple picks), the 3rd most callable race (3 or 4 picks), and finally the toughest race (probably would play up to half the field). The key, for me, would be getting the winner in the most callable race, of course, and hope my coverage on the others is enough.

[jk3521]

You can hedge by playing DD's with your picks in that sequence of races, where available like in NY and SoCal.

[Bennie]

I am not a pick4 player by design but if I have a horse that I really like I will look at the surrounding races to see if there is a "playable" pick 3 or pick 4. There are also times when a "chalk" looks really strong to me and I will single that horse in a pick 3/4 only because of value, turning a 4/5 horse into a 10-1 pick3 or 50-1 pick4.
The only time I ever consider hedging is if I am live to the last leg and there is one horse I "considered" using but left off because of cost and only if that horse was 10-1 or higher. That way a very small win bet would cover my initial investment. Otherwise I leave my fate in the hands of the racing Gods.

[levinmpa]

Read Steven Crist's Exotic Betting book to learn how to structure your tickets. You should be playing multiple tickets, giving more emphasis to your A selections, not the single "caveman" type tickets that TVG is always showing.

Best of luck.

[1st time lasix]

The pick four and the pick five are for those that take the time to be prepared in advance. Rating all contenders using various handicpaping approaches. In terms of hedging....you might search the forum for numerous debates on the subject. I think it is foolish to ever say...."I never hedge" or "I always hedge" when getting down to the last when alive ..... or even 2nd to last leg. Each is an individual situation that must be evaluated. It must be appropriate. One can use win tickets, late doubles or late exacta tickets over your key selection when hedging. I have an accomplished friend you thinks ten cent supers are the perfect hedging vehicle. All depends on preference. I will say this....I wouldn't even consider it unless it is going to be a meaningful score $. Say you already have in a long shot double digit winner in the sequence. **** Another item that i believe must be adhered to in playing pick fours---don't use the "odds on" favorities in the first two legs under any circumstance. If you must---then pass the play. Chalk favs in the the first two legs generally always brings an underlay and there are plenty of other wagering options. Another item...in pick 3's I personally never use the favorite in the first leg period. Never. I am strict on that. If i must---- based on my handicapping....then i look elsewhere. More and more players are using the muti-ticket approach recommended by Christ in his book. I agree with this philosophy.

[Some_One]

hedging is a negative EV bet, if the horse was positive EV, it would be in your P4 play, however it would reduce variance, so if you don't have the stomach for the possible swings, then it could be ok. As for ticket structure, something I'm currently researching is determining if the fav will win or not, if yes, bet the fav only, if not, then completely toss. Favs are ok in a P4 for a leg or two, but I think they'll have to be single's only.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Some_One

hedging is a negative EV bet, if the horse was positive EV, it would be in your P4 play, however it would reduce variance, so if you don't have the stomach for the possible swings, then it could be ok. As for ticket structure, something I'm currently researching is determining if the fav will win or not, if yes, bet the fav only, if not, then completely toss. Favs are ok in a P4 for a leg or two, but I think they'll have to be single's only.

Every time that I want to hedge, I just tell myself to trust my handicapping (meaning if I liked the horse I want to hedge on, he would have already been on my ticket). That being said, the only real time I do hedge is if we are talking about being live to big payouts.

[The Judge]

Search this forum for old posts on pic3 plays. Ron Cox (now deceased) published the Northwest Diges had a very good pic3 style that placed more money on the picks that were likely to pay more based on the history of the payouts and the frequency of when certain odds horses came in.

[1st time lasix]

Originally Posted by Some_One

hedging is a negative EV bet, if the horse was positive EV, it would be in your P4 play, however it would reduce variance, so if you don't have the stomach for the possible swings, then it could be ok. As for ticket structure, something I'm currently researching is determining if the fav will win or not, if yes, bet the fav only, if not, then completely toss. Favs are ok in a P4 for a leg or two, but I think they'll have to be single's only.

******* That's fine if you are buying "caveman multi-race" tickets....but often anyone using a multi ticket approach urged by most accomplished players using contenders in various weightings may be sitting with a live ticket that no longer has a B or C ranked contender on it. Using them in a hedge may possibly be appropriate based on the odds and probabilities......each play has its own EV....blanket statements are naive and inflexible-- in a game where neither attribute is generally rewarded.

[magwell]

I look for a sequence of 3 races that i can picture a good chance to beat the short price horses and then attack by going deep.....but avoiding mystery races, with first time starters or too many first time turf horses .....

[raybo]

Originally Posted by levinmpa

Read Steven Crist's Exotic Betting book to learn how to structure your tickets. You should be playing multiple tickets, giving more emphasis to your A selections, not the single "caveman" type tickets that TVG is always showing.

Best of luck.

I have that book, received it as a birthday present, and I have yet to get through it. Very time consuming and complicated method, at least to me anyway.