final time or not?

[imofe]

I wanted to see what different thoughts there are on final times as a handicapping tool.

Do you
not use final times at all?
use it to support your other handicapping?
use it as your main tool to come up with contenders ? If so, do you go back one race, two races , three races, more?

I personally do not use final time in my handicapping. I do use back half times and 3rd quarter time, so I guess a horse with a fast final time would be more likely to have better figures than those who finished with slower final times.

I also believe that it is one of the first things that jumps out to the betting public. One horse ran 1:55 and the other ran 1:54, so the second horse has a better chance to win. He is faster.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by imofe

I wanted to see what different thoughts there are on final times as a handicapping tool.

Do you
not use final times at all?
use it to support your other handicapping?
use it as your main tool to come up with contenders ? If so, do you go back one race, two races , three races, more?

I personally do not use final time in my handicapping. I do use back half times and 3rd quarter time, so I guess a horse with a fast final time would be more likely to have better figures than those who finished with slower final times.

I also believe that it is one of the first things that jumps out to the betting public. One horse ran 1:55 and the other ran 1:54, so the second horse has a better chance to win. He is faster.

I think final times (and internal fractional times) are important, but "raw" final times (and internal fractional times) are little more than a distraction. Especially with varying track sizes and surfaces, unless times are adjusted for a variety of factors--and those "adjustments" are based on accurate, reliable data--raw final times (and internal fractional times) are not worth much.

[eurocapper]

In my opinion a mile distance is essentially a sprint distance for today's standardbred (at least US bred) so I would not ignore final time for that distance. For longer distances it becomes the analogy of a route and they rate the horse more (giving an edge to pace handicapping).

[lamboguy]

it has always been my opinion that horse racing is more like a boxing match than a speed contest. a horse can use his speed to knock out the other horses. but i have seen plenty of slower horses beat the faster ones because the slower one had more heart.

[imofe]

So we have 3 posters so far that do not seem to use final time, or at least raw final time in their handicapping. Can anyone who does use it explain how they use final time ( raw or adjusted) in their handicapping.

The back half and pace call numbers I use are adjusted for track to track and off track, but are not adjusted for fast races on the same track.

[Dave Schwartz]

When one looks for correlation between known factors and the tote board, it becomes pretty obvious right away that the public uses speed ratings very heavily in its handicapping.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

When one looks for correlation between known factors and the tote board, it becomes pretty obvious right away that the public uses speed ratings very heavily in its handicapping.

That's true as it is the fact that the public also is very precise in its estimates.

We can use these two observations to conclude that although final time plays a major role to the final outcome of a race it is not the best means to form a winning strategy since it is already incorporated in the price.

I am under the impression that we can completely omit final times from our handicapping if we are considering public's odds since there is such a huge correlation between the two. More abstract attributes, with form been the more tangible, are increasing in value, although their estimate process can become very controversial, and this is exactly what keeps the game still (somehow) interesting.

The sad true is that as time goes by, the profit margins are getting thiner reaching their asymptotic limitations imposed by the take out..

The fact that the betting crowd is slowly but constantly becoming a niche market, consisting to a large degree of highly skilled bettors (mainly due to Darwinism) is only accelerating the effect of the evaporation of any existing profitability...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

That's true as it is the fact that the public also is very precise in its estimates.

We can use these two observations to conclude that although final time plays a major role to the final outcome of a race it is not the best means to form a winning strategy since it is already incorporated in the price.

I am under the impression that we can completely omit final times from our handicapping if we are considering public's odds since there is such a huge correlation between the two. More abstract attributes, with form been the more tangible, are increasing in value, although their estimate process can become very controversial, and this is exactly what keeps the game still (somehow) interesting.

The sad true is that as time goes by, the profit margins are getting thiner reaching their asymptotic limitations imposed by the take out..

The fact that the betting crowd is slowly but constantly becoming a niche market, consisting to a large degree of highly skilled bettors (mainly due to Darwinism) is only accelerating the effect of the evaporation of any existing profitability...

Wait a minute there, DeltaLover...what makes you think that the profit margins in this game are getting thinner as time goes by?

I have seen more than a few players on this board who claim that their results have been consistent throughout...and that this game is as easy to beat today as it's ever been.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

That's true as it is the fact that the public also is very precise in its estimates.

We can use these two observations to conclude that although final time plays a major role to the final outcome of a race it is not the best means to form a winning strategy since it is already incorporated in the price.

I am under the impression that we can completely omit final times from our handicapping if we are considering public's odds since there is such a huge correlation between the two. More abstract attributes, with form been the more tangible, are increasing in value, although their estimate process can become very controversial, and this is exactly what keeps the game still (somehow) interesting.

IMO...there is still value to be uncovered by final-time handicapping...if the player is willing to go a little futher down than the top two lines of a horse's past performance record.

Andy Beyer may not think so...but the "top figure horse" in the race is not necessarily the one with the biggest last-out number. Speed handicapping should encompass a little more than just that...

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Wait a minute there, DeltaLover...what makes you think that the profit margins in this game are getting thinner as time goes by?

I have seen more than a few players on this board who claim that their results have been consistent throughout...and that this game is as easy to beat today as it's ever been.

My friend Daskale,

Whether the crowd stays the same, improves or declines is something that can be proved. It is not a matter of opinion.

It is documented in Wong's book Precision where he is comparing crowd's R2 for several years apart making it clear that as time goes by the crowd is improving...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

My friend Daskale,

Whether the crowd stays the same, improves or declines is something that can be proved. It is not a matter of opinion.

It is documented in Wong's book Precision where he is comparing crowd's R2 for several years apart making it clear that as time goes by the crowd is improving...

You don't have to convince me...I had already suspected it.

I now find nowhere near the number of plays that I used to...

I am forced to make much higher bets, just to survive...

[DeltaLover]

As long as the industry will refuse to take drastic action reforming the structural base of the game, this effect will continue until horse betting will resemble a roulette with a 25% take out...

Race officials present a perfect example of the titanic syndrome trying the remedy cancer using aspirin...

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Wait a minute there, DeltaLover...what makes you think that the profit margins in this game are getting thinner as time goes by?

I have seen more than a few players on this board who claim that their results have been consistent throughout...and that this game is as easy to beat today as it's ever been.

Perhaps it that motivation decreases in direct proportion to age and comfort, so that as one gets older and more comfortable, one loses the edge that enabled one to succeed more earlier in life. It is difficult to believe that anyone who makes "$500 a day in their regular job" or that has a "six-figure income" could be motivated by racing as anything more than recreation and amusement. The "size of wagers" is irrelevant--it is only when continued survival is affected that the size of wagers become significant.

The difference between wagering for income and wagering for "extra money" is significant, and motivation is completely different. I am reminded of an interview with General Giap, in which he discussed the differences in strategy between the NVA and the US military. He stated quite simply, "We (the NVA) had no choice. We HAD to win."

Winning used to be easier. I won't argue with that. Winning is tougher now than it was 20 years ago. I won't argue with that either. Winning is impossible for all but the select few who have spent years and years doing the same thing everyone else is doing? I don't think so.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by imofe

I wanted to see what different thoughts there are on final times as a handicapping tool.

Do you
not use final times at all?
use it to support your other handicapping?
use it as your main tool to come up with contenders ? If so, do you go back one race, two races , three races, more?

imofe

I use the trend of Final Times + 4thQ Time as a measure current Form. Form contributes about 20% to the final rating for each entry as does Trip and Driver.

All Final and Quarter Times are adjusted for Distance covered including 'racing wide' Track Speed Rating, Track Condition (Variant), Driver and Starting Post/Tier. Some lines get rejected and no lines older than 40 days are used.

Biggest problem... "Form" has peaked........but I live with it...

[imofe]

Ok Ray

Do you use all the races in the last 40 days?

Or the horse's best time in that 40 days?

Or the line you think would best represent the horse?

Or something else?