Learned a conditional wagering lesson today - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Aerocraft67 · 09-18-2009, 04:46 PM

Brand new player here. Made my first two ADW bets today, 6th race at Laurel, and learned my first lesson. I liked #8 Tazaliya to win and it was hovering around 9/1 on the tote, roughly double the morning line and "Profit Line" odds provided by TwinSpires. I bet #8 to win on the condition of 5/1 or better at 0 MTP. It went off at just over 5/1 and won the race, but had briefly dipped below that at 0 MTP, as if only to kill my wager. Gee whiz. Would have been a nice way to inaugurate my account.

DRIVEWAY · 09-18-2009, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Brand new player here. Made my first two ADW bets today, 6th race at Laurel, and learned my first lesson. I liked #8 Tazaliya to win and it was hovering around 9/1 on the tote, roughly double the morning line and "Profit Line" odds provided by TwinSpires. I bet #8 to win on the condition of 5/1 or better at 0 MTP. It went off at just over 5/1 and won the race, but had briefly dipped below that at 0 MTP, as if only to kill my wager. Gee whiz. Would have been a nice way to inaugurate my account.

Conditional wagering has it's risks. How and exactly when they try to place the bet varies. The software cycles every 30 secs or every 60secs. You need to know. Current estimates are that 35% of wagers occur in last 2 minutes and 20% in the last minute and 10% in last 20 secs. Odds sensitive bets are all over the place and the cycling of the wagers can fall within different intervals as well. Picking 0 MTP will make for easy declines with race being off.

Couple of thoughts to determine best timing selection. Early races give more time. Small fields give more time.

Split your bet when possible. Bet 1/2 or 1/3 at 2MTP. Now this may turn out to be 2.5MTP or 1.5MTP depending on cycle of wagering program with 1 min check interval. You may also vary your odds criteria at the different time intervals. If it's a single bet give yourself at least 1MTP and take the good with the bad.

Good Luck

cccorona · 09-18-2009, 06:03 PM

Are you sure it dipped below? Were you watching the tote to confirm?
I once had a "failed" bet, that never dipped below the minimum odds, and only when I pressed the issue with the ADW, telling them to send me the printout of the minute by minute odds line up to post time, did they credit my account and said they were sorry for the "technical" error. I will never use this conditional wager again.

I also had a situation, went to bet a horse right at post time, and the horse was shaded as a scratch. I also went to bet this horse in exactas and had the same scratch notation. I told my wife to watch, this horse was going to be a scratch as they loaded into the gate, and you know what happened.
The horse won at 9-1 and when I called the ADW they were very apologetic. They told me that this had never happened before and they would refund my bets using this race. That was very nice of them since they knew, or should have known, that I didn't make any bets due to their "technical error".
CC

AAcoolguy · 09-18-2009, 08:23 PM

One thing I use the conditional wagers for on Twinspires is cancelling wagers. They don't allow you to cancel regular bets but if you make a conditional wager you can cancel it anytime before your selected deadline. So make a bet and use the lowest odds possible and zero minutes and cancel if you change your mind.

Ian Meyers · 09-18-2009, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Conditional wagering has it's risks. How and exactly when they try to place the bet varies. The software cycles every 30 secs or every 60secs. You need to know. Current estimates are that 35% of wagers occur in last 2 minutes and 20% in the last minute and 10% in last 20 secs. Odds sensitive bets are all over the place and the cycling of the wagers can fall within different intervals as well. Picking 0 MTP will make for easy declines with race being off.

I developed the first ADW conditional wagering application. All the ones on the market currently could be improved upon, but overall there are many more pros than cons to using them.

Aerocraft67 · 09-18-2009, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cccorona

Are you sure it dipped below? Were you watching the tote to confirm?

Yeah, I watched the tote the whole time. It was 9/1 for most of the time leading up to the race, dipped down to about 4/1 briefly just before 0 MTP, then went off at 5/1.

Not suggesting anything sinister. Just marveling at the misfortune of a rookie mistake.

I hadn't made a rigorous value line, so the conditional wager wasn't a major criteria. She was just the horse I liked to win, third best in the morning line, and I didn't want to be stuck with her at odds near the two favorites at the last minute.

I was also a little hypersensitive making my first bet. Honestly, 5/1 was the default condition, and it sounded about right, even though ML was 4/1, and I probably would have been satisfied with that or even a little less if I weren't biased by the eye-popping 9/1 that the tote was taunting me with the whole time.

Greyfox · 09-19-2009, 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Brand new player here. Made my first two ADW bets today, 6th race at Laurel, and learned my first lesson. I liked #8 Tazaliya to win and it was hovering around 9/1 on the tote, roughly double the morning line and "Profit Line" odds provided by TwinSpires. I bet #8 to win on the condition of 5/1 or better at 0 MTP. It went off at just over 5/1 and won the race, but had briefly dipped below that at 0 MTP, as if only to kill my wager. Gee whiz. Would have been a nice way to inaugurate my account.

1. You may be a brand new player here. Fine.

2. I went through the other posters who have replied.

3. Adding them up, they've all made at total of 512 Posts here ever.

4. I'm from Missouri....5 responders...512 posts total ever. That's interesting.

DJofSD · 09-19-2009, 08:17 AM

I have had this same thing happen to me. When I attempted to get some proof from TS they either could not or would not show me where the dipped occured in the betting period.

That was the last time I ever used conditional wagers.

rokitman · 09-19-2009, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

1. You may be a brand new player here. Fine.

2. I went through the other posters who have replied.

3. Adding them up, they've all made at total of 512 Posts here ever.

4. I'm from Missouri....5 responders...512 posts total ever. That's interesting.

I hope you are far better handicapper of horse races than you are of posts.

Greyfox · 09-19-2009, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rokitman

I hope you are far better handicapper of horse races than you are of posts.

Me too. It was just my "suspicious mind" working overtime last night. All seems legit.

dutchboy · 09-19-2009, 12:22 PM

Youbet allows conditional wagers at -.5, -1, -1.5, and -2 mtp in addition to conditional wagers at certain times before posted post times. Few races ever start at the posted time and most betting seems to show up in the last few minutes.

Not sure if using -2 mtp would eliminate many wagers if a race actually is run on time. -1 mtp might be a good idea but it probably evens out over a year but it is a pain to deal with at the time.

DJofSD · 09-19-2009, 12:27 PM

As far as starting times for races is concerned, I seem to recall many years ago that after a race had been declared offical the next race's post time was announced. Is this still done?

rokitman · 09-19-2009, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Me too. It was just my "suspicious mind" working overtime last night. All seems legit.

Well, I appreciate that you are one of the very small minority in this world who can say "I was wrong."

GameTheory · 09-19-2009, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rokitman

Well, I appreciate that you are one of the very small minority in this world who can say "I was wrong."

I thought I was in that minority, but I was wrong.

dutchboy · 09-19-2009, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJofSD

As far as starting times for races is concerned, I seem to recall many years ago that after a race had been declared offical the next race's post time was announced. Is this still done?

There would be at least a 20 minute gap from the time a race is official and the possible start of the next race. Horses act up, race starts are held on big days waiting for the crowd to get their bets in. If you watch an online toteboard they will have number of minutes to post and the off indicator. It can sit on 0 minutes to post for several minutes before the race actually starts.

Of course the problems would be eliminated if betting was locked and closed as soon as the first horse is loaded and the gate closes behind the horse. New Jersey tracks used to do that several years ago.