Derby Race Shape

[bisket]

There are lots of variables in this derby. The dominant one in this race: Does Fla Derby and Breeders Juvy Fierceness show up, or will the Holy Bull Fierceness show up. For me Fierceness "A" race isn't a wager I'm interested in. I know some bettors will single him on top and look for value underneath, but that's not my game. The Derby with Holy Bull race shape throws the race to the long shot even runners IMOP. Yes we watched Sierra Leon pass the field in marginally fast races, but maybe those horses on the pace just gave it up? So that will have me put a line through Track Phantom and Just a Touch. As I look deeper into the race I might find some more alternatives, but the horse on my radar right now is Encino. Any capper with a low opinion of Turfway will overlook him thinking he didn't beat anybody in the Lexington. This might be true, but the race shape was similar and he wasn't getting passed in the stretch. You also have to know I have made a lot of bank on runners like Encino coming from Tapeta to dirt. Runners like this still get an extra 10 to 20 dollars on the dollar in the odds pool. Just look at Epic Ride in the Bluegrass.

[wiretowire68]

think Sierra Leone will be 2-1 or 5/2 and I still believe he is learning and green as he passed Just a Touch he really lugged in and changed his right lead to the left lead late. If he has any traffic trouble , although the breeding is there, I am not sure if he ready for 1 1/4 and could tire after 1 race in sloppy and dirt. I could be wrong but my horse that is not on the radar is still Mystik Dan.

[burnsy]

I disagree with the original poster . If you like Fierceness . You don’t single him on top . You find someone else or a couple of others you like and have him underneath . Exactas . That’s probably the value . If it rains , you may be able to beat him outright . It’s hard to single a horse in that crap shoot . I’ll come up with at least 3. I like the horse but I’ve seen this parade in town before.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I disagree with the original poster . If you like Fierceness . You don’t single him on top . You find someone else or a couple of others you like and have him underneath . Exactas . That’s probably the value . If it rains , you may be able to beat him outright . It’s hard to single a horse in that crap shoot . I’ll come up with at least 3. I like the horse but I’ve seen this parade in town before.

Burnsy, I believe you are correct!
If it’s a fast track (especially if prepped for speed) then this Derby will be as easy it as was for War Emblem. But beyond that there doesn’t appear to be anything in this field that can run with Fierceness. Those that may try will be cooked after a mile.

I think the most difficult aspect of playing this race (if you’re interested in Verticals that is) is finding those who have a legitimate shot at running 2nd, 3rd and 4th. There are many possible racing scenarios that could be applied. But the one absolutely known factor is that Fierceness will be setting the pace. How you relate that to the abilities, running styles and potential traffic issues for the remaining entries will be the goal to determine who finishes in the next 3 positions.

Otherwise, with normal racing circumstances as far as I’m concerned the winner of this year’s Derby will be Fierceness.

[f2tornado]

I like Fierceness but will shop for another horse or two I can do something with on top as a back up play. The FL Derby Fierceness is unlikely to get beat. If he doesn’t run that race then it’s wide open. I do think taking a chalk over a couple bombers and maybe a couple logicals is not a bad strategy. It worked out some seven years in a row until Maximum got DQ’d (and cost me what would have been a $2800 exacta ticket). I’m not fully buying into the Sierra Leone hype. That closing kick would not have looked as lethal against the top pair at Oaklawn. I’m sure I’ll still use just in case that horse makes a leap. Hard to leave out any fast closing Raise A Native. Maybe the top two from Louisiana are worthy underneath along with the Lukas horse from the Arkansas. I could see the Dubai winner hit the super as well. This doesn’t appear to be that deep of a field which might finally open the door for a board hit.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I disagree with the original poster . If you like Fierceness . You don’t single him on top . You find someone else or a couple of others you like and have him underneath . Exactas . That’s probably the value . If it rains , you may be able to beat him outright . It’s hard to single a horse in that crap shoot . I’ll come up with at least 3. I like the horse but I’ve seen this parade in town before.

It’s 50/50 Fierceness runs his “A” race. There’s a 50% chance the horse that wins will double digit odds. If Fiercness doesn’t blow the doors off this field the probable winning time is going to be slow, lol very slow. The talented horses are still green. Who’s gonna run straight and not give up the lead in the stretch is the horse or horses I’m looking for

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

think Sierra Leone will be 2-1 or 5/2 and I still believe he is learning and green as he passed Just a Touch he really lugged in and changed his right lead to the left lead late.

[wiretowire68]

First of all, this race is all about breaking well and or having a good post position. I will say JR. is one of the best and working out a trip but first of all. Brad Cox possibly has 4 horses in the race, Chad 2 and so forth and so on. So if I am not mistaken depending on Brad's choice as the bunny, the cavalry charge to the 1st call will have a lot to say, this horse Fierceness has showed inconsistencies in his running. I think the Derby last year was very competitive and with 3 year old colts who grow can certainly jump out and surprise. Although inexperienced, I believe you have to look at two of Brad Cox's horse, although he got run down, Just a Touch has not shown his best yet and Catching Freedom will have a say. Sierra Leone deserves to be the favorite because the horse has another gear and has ran down everything he has faced.

Personally, I am not a T. Gaffalione fan and Chad has chosen him. This horse has been able to sit back but this is longer and this horse will have to be able to save ground and negotiate traffic and I do not think Gaffalione is the best rider to do this. My outside longshot is Mystik Dan he knows how to sit off the pace and B. Hernadez is one of the most underrated jockeys. Pletcher horse was beat by Haites and this horse has ran back to back nothings.... So I disagree with you .......

[Vinnie]

Sure, Fierceness could simply get the lead and cruise on to victory in this Race. But, I really don't get the War Emblem type of (Early, Mid-Track and Late Speed) vibe War Emblem possessed in Fierceness. It's goes without saying that clearly Fierceness is extraordinarily fast amongst his current peers when left to his own accord up front. So was Bellamy Road. I just think that you are going to have other horses gunning it for the front as well in this group that think that by doing so it may give them their best shot in terms of race setup. If he gets even jostled around a bit, well, it could open up the race for a plethora of scenarios or possibilities. Getting excited about it already. Wasn't War Emblem the last horse to win the KY Derby while leading the race from start to finish? Just asking....

[zico20]

Medina Spirit was the last horse to go wire to wire. Before that it was Authentic.

[Vinnie]

That's right!! Thank you....

[wiretowire68]

It seems Mr. Pletcher did not have a good crop of 3 Yr. Olds this and he is relying on a horse that show brilliance in BC at 2 Yrs old. but with the weather and the scratches this year. It seems the horses that ran preps this year in Florida were in my opinion very, very, non competitive. I am not sure about Fierceness but Sierra Leone deserves to be the fav. because the horse passed everything in the stretch and even coming off the turn being outside has not affected him. I just did not like that greenness he showed at the wire when he switched his lead and lugged in, he is still learning.. reminds me of Pletcher horse a couple of years ago when White Abario won the Florida Derby. The Horse escapes me but Saez was riding and he really lugged in, he won a couple of Graded Stakes by big numbers at the Big A..

Chad Brown has slowly gotten really good with Dirt Horses the last 3-4 Years. Good Magic, Zandon, Now Sierra Leone.. If he gets gets a trip like Mage, he will win easily, if he has bad traffic, no sure if that rankness will be out of him next start. If Irad or F. Prat were given this horse.. but no offense but I still believe T. Gaffalione is a touch below the top guys ... I will be using Just a Touch and Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone. Just a Touch looked so professional and is light.. same thing is this race is trip.. pure and simple.

[sovereign]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

I just did not like that greenness he showed at the wire when he switched his lead and lugged in, he is still learning.. reminds me of Pletcher horse a couple of years ago when White Abario won the Florida Derby. The Horse escapes me but Saez was riding and he really lugged in, he won a couple of Graded Stakes by big numbers at the Big A.

Charge It?

[bisket]

When I’m betting against a horse like Fierceness who has won easily 1/2 the time and the other times you’re left scratching your head I bet 1/2 of what I normally would on the race.

[racenomics]

Originally Posted by bisket

When I’m betting against a horse like Fierceness who has won easily 1/2 the time and the other times you’re left scratching your head I bet 1/2 of what I normally would on the race.

If he’s got a 50% chance of winning then he’s gotta be your bet right? I can’t imagine him going off below 2-1