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Old 05-27-2018, 09:34 AM   #1
sammy the sage
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Noble Indy in the Belmont...thoughts

not so much as too winning....but how he's used....most here will say as rabbit and create a more fair pace for the rest of the field...???

My thoughts are that he will sent to front and then slowed down to a crawl...with Justify on his flank...by the way...sent to front with this group will NOT require much effort....am thinking JustifySmith allows that to happen

After all....Winstar is HALF owner of N.I. as well....

Am thinking need a 3rd horse to send to get a truly fair pace....

Curious as to board's thoughts tho...
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Old 05-27-2018, 09:42 AM   #2
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I think that's about right.
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Old 05-27-2018, 01:17 PM   #3
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he's more a threat to the rest of the field to play the role of sparring-partner workout-target than he is to affect the pace negatively for Justify.
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Old 05-27-2018, 10:15 PM   #4
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If he matches his pace figures from Louisiana Derby then he could easily replicate what Good Magic pulled in the Preakness.
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Old 05-27-2018, 11:21 PM   #5
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If he matches his pace figures from Louisiana Derby then he could easily replicate what Good Magic pulled in the Preakness.
go toe to toe all the way around the race track and lose by a length or so?

If he goes all out with Justify he will need oxygen at the QP. How does he win, whats the scenario?
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:24 AM   #6
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my thoughts are that is is the booby prize to audible.

what i really want to know is the juicy kickbacks going to and from for not running audible
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Old 05-28-2018, 01:05 AM   #7
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10F seems to be his upper limit. Maybe 6th at best that would be Tale of Ekati good, or 7th, Lookin at Lee good.
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Old 05-28-2018, 01:20 AM   #8
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not so much as too winning....but how he's used....most here will say as rabbit and create a more fair pace for the rest of the field...???

My thoughts are that he will sent to front and then slowed down to a crawl...with Justify on his flank...by the way...sent to front with this group will NOT require much effort....am thinking JustifySmith allows that to happen

After all....Winstar is HALF owner of N.I. as well....

Am thinking need a 3rd horse to send to get a truly fair pace....

Curious as to board's thoughts tho...

Noble Indy's co-owned with Repole.

In the Belmont, and going forward, he will be racing in Repole silks. He had been racing in Windstar silks.

It looks like the percentage of shares flipped on the horse and that Windstar is now the minority owner. Since he's racing in Repole silks, it was probably Repole's call to enter him.

Repole has made it clear that he wants a Belmont win, even more than a KY Derby win, he even said so to NBC in his derby interview. He needs an honest pace for Vino Rosso to have a shot.

I don't think Noble Indy will be working for Justify at all. Pletcher's best strategy is to use both horses to their fullest potential, let his speed, speed away, let his closer, close, and then he has two legit shots.

So, I think he'll be ridden like the horse he is--fast out of the gate on the lead. If Justify lets him go, he has the problem he has always had--he decelarates like he's dropped an anchor beginning after 6f, so if Noble Indy has a big enough cushion, all Justify can do is follow him, he can't close on him, he can only hope he comes back to him.

Noble Indy isn't Promises Fullfilled. He has some solid pedigree influences--A P Indy, Take Charge Lady, Dehere, and he's coming in off of 5 weeks rest. He also isn't Good Magic, he's comfortable on the lead, it's his preferred style. I thought he was co-fastest going into the derby, and faster than Justify. I still think he's probably faster than Justify, and at least no slower.
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Old 05-28-2018, 03:26 AM   #9
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I thought he was co-fastest going into the derby, and faster than Justify. I still think he's probably faster than Justify, and at least no slower.
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Old 05-28-2018, 09:19 AM   #10
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I agree with Papillon , sort of. I think Noble Indy has a shot to win. If you draw a line through the derby , it was on the slop, he has just as good a chance as anybody (if you believe Justify won't win this race, and there's solid historical arguments for that). As far as how will he be used, I don't think there's any reason to use him as a rabbit, on any other kind of spoiler. He's not your typical rabbit running-style anyway.

I think he will try to "run his race," but not on the lead. Sit off the pace and hope that the more rest he's had than Blended Citizen, Bravazo, Justify & Tenfold , will put him over the top.

The Belmont is a strange race with historically crazy results. Creator, Tonalist, Palice Malice, Ruler On Ice, to name a few double-digit winners this decade.
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Old 05-28-2018, 10:16 AM   #11
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I think papillon is on to something here.

Repole is from Queens, it's all about NY, NY. "Some people get Derby fever, but I have Belmont fever," Repole said. "This is the number one race I've been dreaming about, the one I've wanted to win for 30 years."

I think the work is telltale. Noble Indy has always been a slouch in his works. That 47 flat is a speed work, they're putting speed into this horse so when comes the break he'll be right there with Justify, they're goin' stride for stride! If Justify tries to slow, Noble Indy leads, but I doubt Baffert wants Justify to get dirt kicked in his face - he might back out of it, so at this point it is settin' up like the Baltimore.

Interesting how that one horse changed the complexion of this race. Prior to NI, Justify was the speed and likely to be running easily and in the clear - not so anymore. Nice move by Repole.

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP interesting. Early pace is inextricably linked to late pace - E1 goes up, LP goes down and versa vice. His E1 in the Baltimore has never been lower, but that 83 LP . . . man this horse has gotta be hurtin'. But who gives a shit about the horse, this is a run for the Triple, he goes, like it or not hurtin' or not; too much at stake here, this is bigger than the horse.

It is shaping up to be a fun race to watch, full of drama. Like Repole, the Belmont has always been my most favorite race of the three as it is the real test of a champion.



Lookin' forward to the Belmont Stakes.
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Old 05-28-2018, 10:29 AM   #12
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go toe to toe all the way around the race track and lose by a length or so?

If he goes all out with Justify he will need oxygen at the QP. How does he win, whats the scenario?
He was the only horse sans Justify to be up front in a hot pace and hold on. Not saying he will win but he could very well lead them a long way and perhaps hold up for a minor share much like GM in the Preakness, potentially setting it up for a Hofburg, Vino Rossi, or Blended Citizen. In order to win he would need to to have the rest of field not kick in the stretch and have Justify fade. That is not inconceivable but not a likely scenario in my opinion.
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:07 PM   #13
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gUyS I hAcKeD into the laptop of the world's greatest handicapper and got his kentucky derby profile for Noble Indy




NOBLE INDY

form rundown:

Debut MSW 7f - Fractious at the gate, took the initiative, controlled a moderate pace, pace heated up a tiny bit nearing the far turn, but his rival was empty after that abbreviated duel, finished fairly well in the stretch.

2nd start OC 1 1/16M -'Public workout' with another decent horse (Mississippi) turned into a race late, when they ran the last few furlongs and Noble Indy proved best with his stamina edge.

3rd start G2 Risen Star S. 1 1/16M - Forward-favoring merry-go-round race. Hard to really find fault with Noble Indy here. He wasn't exactly thrilled to be in traffic or eager to go through any tight spots, but no one was passing horses in this one.

4th start G2 Louisiana Derby 9f - Weak field for a final prep. Inconsequential brush of gate and #3 at the break. First-time-blinkers and was really moving into the first turn. Was a little fortunate that a longshot went even harder and crossed over, preventing a run-off pace meltdown situation. Breather on the backstretch, was tackled in the lane by one long shot rival, and had another rival sweeping with a wide bid, but both rivals hung in deep stretch, and his sustained effort was enough to come back late and get the win.

Final thoughts - He's a solid horse, and he's fairly tough in terms of stamina. He doesn't compare with the top-tier talents, and his running-style of attending the pace figures to do him in. Toss.


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Old 05-28-2018, 12:15 PM   #14
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this is bigger than the horse..
and therein lies the problem with what racing has become.

to me it is always about the horse, and always willl be.
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Old 05-28-2018, 12:47 PM   #15
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For the Preakness, I saw some pretty sharp people saying horses like Sporting Chance could challenged Justify early. I didn't believe it for a second. He simply isn't fast enough.

Noble Indy isn't either...if this were the Derby or the Preakness. But at a longer distance like the Belmont where optimal fractions are substantially slower than races at least two furlongs shorter, he probably could make it tougher on Justify if they get into a battle, even if it seems like normal fraction for those shorter distances.
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