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Old 06-07-2018, 06:54 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Blenheim View Post
I don't believe he is the race to win the race, rather he is in the race to do the best he can to prevent Justify from winning. .
He has the same ownership as Justify, why would Repole do that to Winstar, that makes no sense.

If it plays out like that it would be surprising, but its racing so I guess anything is possible.
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Old 06-07-2018, 07:05 PM   #32
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I look for him to run big, if not pull the upset. His Fairgrounds win just sticks with me for whatever reason. Lost a few bucks on him Derby day, but drawing a line through it. Seems to be working very well. Hopefully Geroux can ride again, I cant think of many who are riding better. Plus, he fell out of the irons last year, I doubt he's forgotten haha.
Pretty much all of this.... I’ve been saying the same things. He was in Post 19 in a race with plenty of speed, on a wet track. That’s a throw away race for me. And I loved his LA derby. Speed was horrible that day. And he found a way to win.
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Old 06-07-2018, 07:06 PM   #33
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Geroux isn't riding obviously but I don't see any downgrade here
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Old 06-07-2018, 08:22 PM   #34
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Kickbacks from who? Themselves?

I know I'm late to this, so I probably missed something.
No kickbacks, but can you imagine the embarrassment if their TC hopeful got beaten by another of their own horses? They couldn’t very well enter him and try NOT to win. That’s the real reason he’s not running here. Not that he would have won but they didn’t want to take the chance. The stud fees on a TC winner must be more than for a Derby-Preakness winner and a Belmont winner combined, at least for 3 or 4 years.

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Old 06-07-2018, 08:37 PM   #35
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No kickbacks, but can you imagine the embarrassment if their TC hopeful got beaten by another of their own horses? They couldn’t very well enter him and try NOT to win. That’s the real reason he’s not running here. Not that he would have won but they didn’t want to take the chance. The stud fees on a TC winner must be more than for a Derby-Preakness winner and a Belmont winner combined, at least for 3 or 4 years.
I am dubious the horse ever makes another start. He has not worked out since the Derby.
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Old 06-07-2018, 09:32 PM   #36
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Not publicly anyway.
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Old 06-07-2018, 09:43 PM   #37
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I think this horse is WAY more live than 30-1.

I get that he was dreadful in the Derby, but he broke from the 19 post and couldn't get the kind of position he probably wants because they were going so fast inside of him. He wound up getting hung out 4 wide on both turns chasing that fast pace and threw in the towel on that very sloppy track.

If you are willing to draw a line through that race (and I am when a horse is 30-1), his LA Derby was actually very good. The pace in that race was fast, the race flow strongly favored closers, and he was on the pace and came again to win. Something happened to Bravazo on the turn in that race (he was lugging out or something), but he was near that pace and backed up badly. He has since proven to be a pretty good horse that fits with the 2nd tier just behind Justify. My Boy Jack and Lone Sailor who had good setups in that race did not embarrass themselves in the KY Derby and Preakness.

He may be more likely to run a total dud than some of them, but all in all, even though he's not as good as Justify if he wound up running a big race I would be no more shocked than if one of the other 2nd tier horses did, but he's 30-1.
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Old 06-07-2018, 10:29 PM   #38
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Noble Indy's only winning scenario is a replay of the 2008 Belmont. He can still hang on for a small piece if the pace is moderate.
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Old 06-08-2018, 12:16 AM   #39
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Noble Indy's only winning scenario is a replay of the 2008 Belmont. He can still hang on for a small piece if the pace is moderate.
8 other horses feel the same way.
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Old 06-08-2018, 08:28 AM   #40
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I think this horse is WAY more live than 30-1.

I get that he was dreadful in the Derby, but he broke from the 19 post and couldn't get the kind of position he probably wants because they were going so fast inside of him. He wound up getting hung out 4 wide on both turns chasing that fast pace and threw in the towel on that very sloppy track.

If you are willing to draw a line through that race (and I am when a horse is 30-1), his LA Derby was actually very good. The pace in that race was fast, the race flow strongly favored closers, and he was on the pace and came again to win. Something happened to Bravazo on the turn in that race (he was lugging out or something), but he was near that pace and backed up badly. He has since proven to be a pretty good horse that fits with the 2nd tier just behind Justify. My Boy Jack and Lone Sailor who had good setups in that race did not embarrass themselves in the KY Derby and Preakness.

He may be more likely to run a total dud than some of them, but all in all, even though he's not as good as Justify if he wound up running a big race I would be no more shocked than if one of the other 2nd tier horses did, but he's 30-1.
Yup pretty much all of this. He is very interesting.

Speed was so bad that day at fair grounds
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Old 06-09-2018, 09:34 PM   #41
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They "quipped" him....ie...Repole the majority owner flapping his gums ...obviously lied thru his teeth....and bowed/bought off by winstar....Pletcher....nothing he could do,,,

Horse had no shot...so why run him at all...unless as rabbit...that of course wouldn't have mattered anyways....Vino Rossi turned into Vinegar...no excuses....
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Old 06-10-2018, 02:49 AM   #42
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Vino Rossi turned into Vinegar

from what?

Horse won a G2. That's it. Oh, and maidens at short distances.
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Old 06-10-2018, 11:01 AM   #43
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Yup pretty much all of this. He is very interesting.

Speed was so bad that day at fair grounds

I used him in my exotics and had a small win and place bet on him.

I still think he's a good horse.

When they run a dreadful race on slop like he did ion the Derby it's hard to know how much of it was the off track and how much was just bad form or his case how much was an inability to handle the distance. He's probably going to be better running mid distance races.
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Old 06-10-2018, 11:50 AM   #44
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I used him in my exotics and had a small win and place bet on him.

I still think he's a good horse.

When they run a dreadful race on slop like he did ion the Derby it's hard to know how much of it was the off track and how much was just bad form or his case how much was an inability to handle the distance. He's probably going to be better running mid distance races.
I agree, which is kinda why it was interesting he was even entered, he sure didnt feel like a 12F horse, with a style that could never have won since he needs to be up close and there was a great horse in the race with that style.
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Old 06-10-2018, 12:44 PM   #45
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I agree, which is kinda why it was interesting he was even entered, he sure didnt feel like a 12F horse, with a style that could never have won since he needs to be up close and there was a great horse in the race with that style.
Yeah, I was using him figuring there was no way he'd tangle with Justify because of the common connections. I was hoping they'd back it down enough that he could hang around for a piece. If Justify finally wore down you never know. But he doesn't want to go that far and I suspect he's not as sharp as he was either.
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