Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-29-2018, 12:02 PM   #1
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 942
Rep Power: 5 boys at tosconova is on a distinguished road
it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire

what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's

Last edited by boys at tosconova; 05-29-2018 at 12:04 PM.
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 12:05 PM   #2
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,716
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.
I think there are 3 clear contenders that the public will latch onto

Hoffberg (watch the gallop out in the Derby! He had trouble, would have won crowd)

Vino Rosso - Plodder that should love 12 furlong crowd

Bravazzo - The coach is just getting him right, he would have won a longer race crowd.

Probably be a drop down a bit to Tenfold.

After that I think the odds and chances get a little fuzzy.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:11 PM   #3
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 282
Rep Power: 3 Mc990 is on a distinguished road
A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:14 PM   #4
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,716
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO
If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:37 PM   #5
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 282
Rep Power: 3 Mc990 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:42 PM   #6
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,716
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1
So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:53 PM   #7
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 282
Rep Power: 3 Mc990 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?
To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 01:59 PM   #8
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 893
Rep Power: 4 f2tornado will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1
Perhaps a reasonable comparison is the 2014 Belmont where Chrome making a crown bid was 4/5, Wicked Strong 5-1, three in the 8 to 9-1 range, then your 20-1+ types. I figure Vino fits that 8-1 mold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's
True. I can make a reasonable case for most of the field to hit the trifecta. I guess for now I'll plan on Justify and Indy to duke it out setting up shop for Vino, Hofburg, and perhaps even Blended Citizen. Maybe those three over themselves over all. The buck version would cost around $40 total with a shot at four figures like what Tonalist provided in 2014.

Last edited by f2tornado; 05-29-2018 at 02:08 PM.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 02:05 PM   #9
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,716
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...
Without the PP's and the field all this is a bit tough.

The way I see it though, from a betting perspective.

1) Justify does not handle the distance
2) Justify just as had a lot of racing and is tired

If you believe either 1 or 2 then its a tremendous betting opportunity.

So if you pitch Justify you are really only left with about 4 or 5 horses that can win.

Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.

I think though if you are against Justify you need to kill this race as the horizontal and vertical wagers will pay exponentially better than just a slight value play.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 06:16 PM   #10
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 1,361
Rep Power: 0 Redboard is an unknown quantity at this point
Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...ntStakes18.pdf

Just to add to the confusion, here are bris' running style category which I extracted, from speed to closer. I don't agree with Justify's E8, and a few others. E8 is a horse who absolutely has to be on the lead, I wouldn't put him in that category.

E8 : Justify
E/P 5 : Bravazo, Noble Indy, Tenfold
E/P 4 : Restoring Hope
P2 : Hofburg
P1 : Free Drop Billy
S3 : Vino Rosso
S2 : Blended Citizen
Gronkowski (NA)

I always believed that the Belmont is won by the horse who can relax and settle into his running style.


Anybody like Gronk? fair odds?
Redboard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 06:23 PM   #11
thaskalos
"Awake!"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 20,771
Rep Power: 40 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...ntStakes18.pdf
How does Hofburg lose this race?
__________________
"Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school."
-- Albert Einstein
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 06:24 PM   #12
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 1,361
Rep Power: 0 Redboard is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post

...
Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.
...
25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?
Redboard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 06:31 PM   #13
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,716
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?
3/1 estimated chances....goes off at 5/1, fair enough value if ones into that kind of thing.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 08:58 PM   #14
PoloUK6108
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 309
Rep Power: 8 PoloUK6108 is on a distinguished road
Repoles and Hofburg.

Would love to see Gronk get revenge for Chad the racing world would implode.
PoloUK6108 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2018, 10:04 PM   #15
Boris
Registered User
 
Boris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FL
Posts: 1,153
Rep Power: 19 Boris is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
How does Hofburg lose this race?
6F in 1:13
1M in 1:38
Boris is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. - 22.89%
19 Votes
No, I'm gonna use him but spread - 33.73%
28 Votes
Toss - 39.76%
33 Votes
Doesn't run - 3.61%
3 Votes
Total Votes: 83
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.