Derby Longshot

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

https://www.usracing.com/kentucky-derby/props

Some interesting props

I Can't believe they are giving 1.95-1 on gates 11-20. Seems like a good bet before post draw and if you can wager after post positions it could be a must play if you can get Justify at nearly 2-1 with 9 others.

Anyone have any experience with this organization? Seriously considering making an account.

[n.c]

“I think it's a fair assessment that the Fairgrounds horses have not done that well in the Kentucky Derby. I think this year, for either of those horses, we're talking Noble Indy for Todd Pletcher, who won the Derby, as well as Lone Sailor, who was barely beaten by him. I think both of those horses would need to step up to the competition in the Kentucky Derby,” he said.

The Majestic Warrior colt posted a stunning 5-furlong work at Churchill Downs in 57 seconds and 3/5 – that’s right 57 seconds.

“But I think the final time was probably accurate, but again, I know it's gonna get a lot of attention but this horse has always been a very good workhorse,” Amoss said. “It's just that now, we're under a microscope and everybody's watching. And they're seeing something that's been there all along. So, I'm not trying to downplay it. It was a very good work here at Churchill Downs and he likes this track.”

[f2tornado]

Perhaps just a fluke but Louisiana Derby horses with one of the special conduit mares and/or Buckpasser-x have fared well hitting the board in Kentucky. Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Commanding Curve, Gun Runner... we shall see with Lone Sailor who has Countess Wanda in tail. Battle of Midway out of the Santa Anita had one of those via Court Dress last year and helped blow up the trifecta.

[n.c]

the exacta or tri with favs on top

Solomini at 20-1, Flameawa 40-1y, Hofburg 30-1 and Free Drop 40-1


All 4 of these horses have finished behind top 7 derby favs, few lengths back

IF 1 one of these horses improves you could possibly hit the exacta or tri

JUstify+Magnum+Mend+Good M+Bolt+Audi+Vino over the long shots
at the 2 and 3 spot
.50 cent tri at 84 dollars
2 dollar ex at 56 dollars

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.
This way you have 6 at the top vs 7.

[n.c]

1 or 2 of the favs might get bad posts, so you could throw out 1 or 2 more horses. This way you can key 4-5 horses at the top, and bring down the betting amount.

[chiguy]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Keeping an eye on Hofburg
Love the breeding and the connections .for the classic distance .

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by chiguy

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's [Hofburg] last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

He drew a nice post for his style. He can drop back a little without losing much ground. The horses to his in and out are pretty much the same style. He's ran wide his previous two trips and has room to pop in his third start this year. At a minimum, he will definitely see play in my vertical gimmicks.

[clicknow]

I haven't looked at the post positions yet, but early this morning, before the post draw, going by many of my own weird angles, one of my "go for value" tickets will look like this:

Top keys: Mendelssohn, Lone Sailor, Enticed

Haven't figured out what to do with Instilled Regard yet, so may slot him in somewhere, but will be slowly filling out the rest of my ticket for the tri and superfecta after analyzinig post positions. That will be hard part.

If only playing Exacta, my 3 top ones repeated in 2nd place, along with Bolt, Vino, Audible, Justify, My Boy Jack, and Hofburg.

[tjfla]

Talking about Derby LS

Does anyone use the Super Screener thing? Keep hearing the guy bragging about it but u have to Buy it to get his TOP LS

Is this legit or??

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by n.c

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.

VERY difficult to separate these 2 for an exotics ticket.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by chiguy

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

I might use him like a Colonel John.....2nd or 4th.

[Boris]

Originally Posted by n.c

the exacta or tri with favs on top

Solomini at 20-1, Flameawa 40-1y, Hofburg 30-1 and Free Drop 40-1


All 4 of these horses have finished behind top 7 derby favs, few lengths back

IF 1 one of these horses improves you could possibly hit the exacta or tri

JUstify+Magnum+Mend+Good M+Bolt+Audi+Vino over the long shots
at the 2 and 3 spot
.50 cent tri at 84 dollars
2 dollar ex at 56 dollars

Audible and Vino about the same odds, you can eliminate 1 of them by checking the odds, which one is live and which one is not. IF one of them is 8-1 and the other at 16-1, go with the 8-1.
This way you have 6 at the top vs 7.

Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.

[n.c]

Free drop, Combatant, Enticed, and Promises Full,

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

I Can't believe they are giving 1.95-1 on gates 11-20. Seems like a good bet before post draw and if you can wager after post positions it could be a must play if you can get Justify at nearly 2-1 with 9 others.

Anyone have any experience with this organization? Seriously considering making an account.

I don’t understand why take 1.95 - 1 on Mendelssohn when you can cash 4 or 5 -1 on him just betting the traditional way ...

Am I missing something ?

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by chiguy

I have been on Combatant as my long shot but I have to say after watching this guy's last couple I am pretty impressed. If he moves up again I think he wins. He has a great style for the type of race I think we are going to see and he will be steaming home.

I can see Spalding No! took my advice and started passing the bong !!!