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Old 04-30-2018, 02:48 PM   #46
PowerUpPaynter
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People hate Bolt and Justify.. so weird...
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:51 PM   #47
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Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.

I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.

Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.

No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:51 PM   #48
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I take it the closer we get to the Derby, the less you feel you have to lose...

Why do trolls like you show up for the Derby every year, then disappear for the next 11 months?
Let's be thankful they do. I could not do this for 12 months a year. Nothing like the guy that knows everything. Questioning a trainers integrity, in particular someone like Mick Ruis makes this guy an auto-mute for me.

A guy like Mick may get just one shot in the Derby in his life and he does this. I respect the hell out of this guy. Came from nothing and is doing things he probably never even dreamed.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...silks-in-derby
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:55 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
People hate Bolt and Justify.. so weird...
I actually feel sorry for both Justify and Bolt. Justify is being thrown in the deep waters when he clearly isn’t ready for it and it very well might ruin whatever career he could have had as a racehorse in the future and as far as Bolt goes ... I feel sorry for any horse that has Mick Ruis as a trainer.
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:57 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by LoneF View Post
Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.

I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.

Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.

No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
Adi stated in Papillions superfecta thread this was done last year and will be done again after the post draw tomorrow. If I remember coffectly the winner had last years exacta for $10 or something like that to take bragging rights.
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Old 04-30-2018, 03:05 PM   #51
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Adi stated in Papillions superfecta thread this was done last year and will be done again after the post draw tomorrow. If I remember coffectly the winner had last years exacta for $10 or something like that to take bragging rights.
Oh ok I missed that. Should be fun ...
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Old 04-30-2018, 03:10 PM   #52
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No, highlighted by Justify's 109, still shows a large gap that Magnum Moon has to cover by improvement.
I see no more improvement from him - we have seen his top and I doubt he will ever get a new one.
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Old 04-30-2018, 03:28 PM   #53
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I see no more improvement from him - we have seen his top and I doubt he will ever get a new one.
This is how I feel. His top might be good enough but there is certainly room for others to step up and match or exceed it. This happens with regularity on the three year old circuit.
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Old 04-30-2018, 03:57 PM   #54
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I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.

They dont exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
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Old 04-30-2018, 04:28 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by LoneF View Post
Why not just have a thread where everyone makes their official derby bet.

I would guess most of us use online wagering so most will not have actual paper tickets to take pictures of and besides not everyone’s bankroll is the same so it’s not really a fair way to gauge the best handicapper.

Just make it simple . Everyone gets a fictional $100 to bet with any way they want on the derby and whoever has the highest R.O.I. on their bets is the winner.

No prize money that complicated things. Just for fun and bragging rights. We can start the thread after the post position draw.
Genius! Why not start a section of the site for Selections as well?
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:07 PM   #56
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I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.

They don't exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
Go listen to the Steve Byk show 27 April, you here a couple of guys that say such a thing. Frank Hammerle is one of them. He said he is so confident that Justify will win that he is embarrassed by feeling so. Lots of people love Justify and Bolt and personally, I don't understand the hype. People love Bris and Beyers, but these numbers are very flawed bias.

An example I'll Have Another run fast times, but for whatever reason Bris and Beyer didn't have him fast. I bet if he was a Baffert horse, he would have magically have gotten faster.
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:30 PM   #57
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And if the sun comes crashing into the earth before Saturday than they won’t even run the race. Both scenarios have equal probability !
No, they don't.

You don't have to like Justify- that's horse racing. But if you think he has no chance to win the race at all you are way off.
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:50 PM   #58
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Zenyatta getting that horrible start and still winning the BC Cup classic

Uh, when did Zenyatta ever get a "horrible start" and win the BC Classic?




I'm guessing Mendelssohn is in for a scripted "horrible start" this Saturday (by your assessment alone).


God, just cross-off Mendelssohn and his 1-for-54 trainer already.
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:07 PM   #59
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I would challenge LoneF to find one single article to say that Justify is anywhere close to a lock or cinch to win this race.

They dont exist, setting up strawman arguments left and right.
When you say find one article , do you mean one article in the media or one post on this website ?
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:25 PM   #60
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People love Bris and Beyers, but these numbers are very flawed bias.

An example I'll Have Another run fast times, but for whatever reason Bris and Beyer didn't have him fast. I bet if he was a Baffert horse, he would have magically have gotten faster.
very true. flawed, subjective and incomplete are all of them are. people are catching on to the bs. much like they are in the officiating of NFL games. wasn't it beyer that went back and changed the number based on outcry last year?...lol

i can say i have a speed rating myself, just throw out some number based on visual or makeup some formula that doesn't exist.
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