HOLY BULL STAKES

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

You have the points for the Derby do you want to use him hard to win first race back and possibly affecting his form in a few months. This is an unusual race for Pletcher. His horses would usually try to win a race like that. Has he finally learned to go for the big race at the expense of a graded win….?

After Fierceness's third place finish in the race, Todd Pletcher is now 7-1-1-3 with horses making their seasonal debut (60 day layoff) in the Holy Bull. None of the horses went off higher than 3-1. (The only winner was the 3-1 shot.) Shanghai Bobby was a previous Juvenile winner/2yo champ who failed in the Holy Bull at low odds.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Our family friend in CJ laid it down

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...68096480518619

That Nysos figure I'm going to throw out. It's tough to trust a figure based on 2 claiming races (3 and 7). Grade 2 Mares went 7 furs a little better than 12's (1:23 1/5) similar to the Bob Lewis. The Mares got a 94 Beyer and Nysos a 105. Yeah the mares are 1 turn but that's a big difference for similar times. The claimers went a mile in 1:40... making the Nysos time look better. Nysos got the mile in 1:36 3/5

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by bisket

That Nysos figure I'm going to throw out. It's tough to trust a figure based on 2 claiming races (3 and 7). Grade 2 Mares went 7 furs a little better than 12's (1:23 1/5) similar to the Bob Lewis. The Mares got a 94 Beyer and Nysos a 105. Yeah the mares are 1 turn but that's a big difference for similar times. The claimers went a mile in 1:40... making the Nysos time look better. Nysos got the mile in 1:36 3/5

Love your action.

The numbers are the numbers but you don't nearly need to be a slave to said numbers.

[Robert Fischer]

Nysos dusted Reincarnate in the morning 1/28.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Nysos dusted Reincarnate in the morning 1/28.

Thanks I don't get workout reports. That's impressive for a young horse. Saturday was pretty much a 1 mile breeze. I guess I'm just trying to figure out if he breezed at graded stake level or allowance level on Saturday lol. Either way if he stays healthy he'll be a major player this spring and summer.

Orseno said he's probably going to run Hades in the Florida Derby next. He also said Paco said Hades hasn't figured things out yet. So we havent seen his best yet.

Pletcher on the other hand sounded like they might change plans from the original plan of waiting for the FLA derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bisket

Thanks I don't get workout reports. That's impressive for a young horse. Saturday was pretty much a 1 mile breeze. I guess I'm just trying to figure out if he breezed at graded stake level or allowance level on Saturday lol. Either way if he stays healthy he'll be a major player this spring and summer.

Orseno said he's probably going to run Hades in the Florida Derby next. He also said Paco said Hades hasn't figured things out yet. So we havent seen his best yet.

Pletcher on the other hand sounded like they might change plans from the original plan of waiting for the FLA derby.

Hades was a bright spot.

The Klaravich/Brown horse did some things right.

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[cj]

The pace for this race was a joke and probably led to the slow-ish final time. The figure is the figure, but I'm not putting much stock in it one way or the other in this case.

[ubercapper]

Hades was my top pick. Since cross-posting is a no-no the link to the Equibase race of the week was only mentioned in the Selections forum, where I put a link to the various blogs I write weekly.


The pre-race analysis also got picked up by America's Best Racing and Paulick Report here https://paulickreport.com/news/horse...s-needs-a-race

[bisket]

Originally Posted by cj

The pace for this race was a joke and probably led to the slow-ish final time. The figure is the figure, but I'm not putting much stock in it one way or the other in this case.

I'm trying to wrap my head around AOC 75k 3 year olds in race 6 were faster than the Holy Bull. Race 6 was timed from a standing start and the Holy Bull had a 60 feet run up and the pace in race 6 was faster. The race 6 time is closer to the one turn races. Two of them stakes races just before the Holy Bull saying race 6 is a little more legitimate.

[bisket]

I'm getting my tracks mixed up lol I forgot Gulfsteam is a one turn mile. I had Sant Anita on my mind. cancel that. Last year I didn't pay attention to the figures until FLa Derby, Ark derby, Bluegrass, and LA derby cards because they had enough races for good variants.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bisket

I'm trying to wrap my head around AOC 75k 3 year olds in race 6 were faster than the Holy Bull. Race 6 was timed from a standing start and the Holy Bull had a 60 feet run up and the pace in race 6 was faster. The race 6 time is closer to the one turn races. Two of them stakes races just before the Holy Bull saying race 6 is a little more legitimate.

Just a little side note, I have my doubts about the actual distance of the one turn mile races at Gulfstream Park. They are timing from the gate now, but I suspect it really isn't a mile long. The fractions have always looked a little too fast to me, both when the run up was ~5 feet and now that it is zero.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Just a little side note, I have my doubts about the actual distance of the one turn mile races at Gulfstream Park. They are timing from the gate now, but I suspect it really isn't a mile long. The fractions have always looked a little too fast to me, both when the run up was ~5 feet and now that it is zero.

Well, you are talking about a place that built a 9F oval that wasn't actually one mile and an eighth. Or one that ran 5F turf races that weren't actually five furlongs. We could go on and on.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Hades was my top pick. Since cross-posting is a no-no the link to the Equibase race of the week was only mentioned in the Selections forum, where I put a link to the various blogs I write weekly.


The pre-race analysis also got picked up by America's Best Racing and Paulick Report here https://paulickreport.com/news/horse...s-needs-a-race

Good pick, I wish I would've at least looked at the race. Really jumped out at me on paper.

[bisket]

In the 2 races Fierceness spit the bit he was outside horses on the turn. In his wins he was challenged from the outside. His best race he was between horses. He looked like he lost interest shortly after switching leads in the Holy Bull. If this keeps up he might be a nice play later in the year because he'll be hot and cold in his races and eventually bettors will lose interest. Sometimes horses need to be inside to run their best race. Think of Super Saver in the derby....

[Robert Fischer]

Fierceness and
Sea Streak

were against the track configuration

I don't hold that as highly significant due to the tradeoff with that significant forward speed favoring setup.

Domestic Product was against the setup, but his trip was extremely efficient. Bodes well for possessing the fundamentals and class, but a little brilliance would be nice. That would put him in contention for the Triple Crown Series