The Dubai World Cup - 26th March 2011

[Dahoss9698]

Cape Blanco in the World Cup is the most interesting entrant on the card IMO. I don't know how many horses Coolmore has ever run in Dubai, but I can't imagine its many and I can't imagine they would send him there unless he's doing really well.

[NTamm1215]

If there was exchange wagering in the US, betting against Cape Blanco in the World Cup would probably be one of the best bets in the history of betting.

[Some_One]

R2 Al Quoz Sprint - Go against JJ at your own risk
R3 Godolphin Mile - Not much speed aside from Conyenance in here. I like Red Jazz, 3rd to Poet's Voice and Rip Van Winkle in the QEII at Ascot last year. Sire had 33% winners of horses who ran on poly last year in North America, really not much other classy horses in this field.
R4 UAE Derby - I see that the Georgian dictator is now the owner of Sweet Ducky, lol, I wonder if he'll send to the Ky Derby if he wins...if I can get 12s, I'll take it, but I have a feeling in the US pools he will be fav. For a price, I'll take Utley, horrible trip last year in the Juvie Turf, sire was #6 in North America for poly track runners, his 108 RPR last year in France is already near the top of this field, any improvement due to age/surface will put him over the top.
R5 Golden Shaaen - Tough race, Rocket Man is one of the best sprinters in the world but always seems to come up a little short. I believe the best sprinters come from HK (sorry Black Caviar), so Dynamic Blitz and Sunny King are the ones at a price I'll go with.
R6 Duty Free - Royal Bench for me here, I can't go with Previs at a short price, always slow out of the gate and has tough trips, and as for Victor's Cry, hopefully people have learned never to bet a US based horse in Dubai on the turf course, they always take lots of money and finish up the track. RB had too much to do in HK mile when 2nd, has run terribly on the soft ground in France, but did have a decent win in a stakes race over a firm mile last summer so I think ground is key for this one. The aforementioned HK Mile winner Beauty Flash seems to have gotten his act together, respect.
R7 Sheema Classic - Race lost some appeal with the defection of Snow Fairy this week, look to HK again for the clues, Redwood finished behind Mastery, but was ahead of Melbourne Cup winner Americain in the Vase, unlucky 3rd in the crazy finish in last year's Canadian International. Dangerous Midge has to be respected, but probably will be overbet, the other Americans have no shot, Rewilding needs a very fast pace.
R8 Dubai World Cup - Looking in the past with 1 DWC and 2 BC"s over poly in the books, two things that stand out is form over the track seems to be important (Zenyatta, Gloria De Campeno, Lizard's Desire) and if you're going to go turf to dirt, take a miler over a 12f horse (Raven's Pass, Henrythenavitagor, Twice Over). Twice Over is going strong and is a legit fav. To oppose, I'll take QEII winner last year Poet's Voice at 20-1, hopefully Dettori can get him over and relaxed early, but there isn't much pace so I want a horse near the front to get first run late. Another Godolphin horse that'll be close to the pace that you can use is Monterosso.

[netbet]

I love betting the World Cup card.

Although I am not a huge fan of the all weather tracks...I find the Meydan course to be okay and the turf races are fantastic.

I am looking at a few in the big race.

I will bet against Twice Over as he will be the favorite.
I can't bet Fly Down as I never thought much of him here in the U.S.
Gio Ponti is always dangerous but the long layoff worries me.

My top 3 will be:

#13- Buena Vista is the lone female runner in this field. This runner is the 2010 Japan Horse of the Year and champion older mare.

#9- Transcend is another runner from Japan and has won 3 straight races.

#7- Musir may be the most logical upsetter given that this one has been prepping at Meydan. It is interesting that Christophe Soumillon stays with this runner instead of Buena Vista.

Patrick

[precocity]

Originally Posted by netbet

I love betting the World Cup card.

Although I am not a huge fan of the all weather tracks...I find the Meydan course to be okay and the turf races are fantastic.

I am looking at a few in the big race.

I will bet against Twice Over as he will be the favorite.
I can't bet Fly Down as I never thought much of him here in the U.S.
Gio Ponti is always dangerous but the long layoff worries me.

My top 3 will be:

#13- Buena Vista is the lone female runner in this field. This runner is the 2010 Japan Horse of the Year and champion older mare.

#9- Transcend is another runner from Japan and has won 3 straight races.

#7- Musir may be the most logical upsetter given that this one has been prepping at Meydan. It is interesting that Christophe Soumillon stays with this runner instead of Buena Vista.

Patrick

going to bet big on musir!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OTM Al]

Race #2: JJ is clearly the class of this field, but I like him a lot more if this is 6f rather than 5f. Deserving favorite but not a lock. War Artist may be worth a look. American runner Stradivinsky fits here as well. Use Picadilly Filly underneath at a price. Would be more interested in Mr Gruff if he had some recency.

Race #3: Going to give Skysurfers the slightest of edges here over Red Jazz, though both should be used in the top spot simply from recency, though Red Jazz came back strong of the layoff last year and looks to be the class here. I Want Revenge should be in the mix but can't use him on top. Imbongi underneath as well.

Race #4: I like the fillies in this one. Reem already has a win on the track at the distance. Also like Mahbooba in the top spot. Khawlah should run well also. Will not use Xin Xu Lin. Do not trust his SA form as his best running has been on heavy turf courses.

Race #5: Going with the Sha Tin contingent here as they look to be in good form. Use Dynamic Blitz and Rocket Man on top with Sunny King underneath. Kinsale King could repeat but he's going to get over bet so staying away from him in the verticals

Race #6: I find Mendip's placement here discouraging and will leave him out. Better Than Ever is 14 wins from 15 starts with multiple group 1s (albeit in Singapore) but he doesn't look like he wants the 9f. Wigmore Hall may be the price play here. Will also use Presvis and River Jetez on top here. Beauty Flash, Tazeez and Strawberrydaiquiri will also be players in a very competitive race.

Race #7: Another tough race. I'm tossing Dangerous Midge. I don't think the BC was a good renewal this year and the fact that he ran in the Newbury Arc Trial, simply shouts that he isn't a top class animal. I like Rewilding off the layoff. Redwood will be running strong with Chinchon at the end, so will have both underneath. Will also use Rulership in all spots as I expect him to be sitting in a good spot and get first run.

Race #8: Victoire Pisa looks ready to win big in this one. Twice Over looks in great form as well. That's your exacta. I'm a fan of Cape Blanco, who has shown the ability to come back strong from a layoff, so he will be in play. Gio Ponti will be around underneath as well. Monterosso will get a good tracking trip, so can upset, but will need luck. Flydown will still be running next Saturday....

[precocity]

Flydown will still be running next Saturday....

[slew101]

Anyone like I Want Revenge in the Mile? I know Dutrow wanted him in the World Cup, but this seems to be a better spot. His last in the Donn was a decent effort and the cutback might be what he needs.

Dutrow used similar tactics with Diamond Stripes a few years back, cutting back to a mile after running in longer races to win in Dubai.

[nijinski]

Laheeb and Champ Pegasus , for the only race i checked so far .

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by slew101

Anyone like I Want Revenge in the Mile? I know Dutrow wanted him in the World Cup, but this seems to be a better spot. His last in the Donn was a decent effort and the cutback might be what he needs.

Dutrow used similar tactics with Diamond Stripes a few years back, cutting back to a mile after running in longer races to win in Dubai.

What was the record of NY/East coast horses in the 2 BC's on the SA poly? Not good at all, give me a turf horse before I take a dirt to poly horse....plus for IWR, he's been so off form, not sure even Dutrow can pull this miracle off.

[gm10]

There's a placepot on Meydan next Saturday. The placepot is one of my favourite bets.
The returns are likely to be massive on such a competitive card.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Some_One

What was the record of NY/East coast horses in the 2 BC's on the SA poly? Not good at all, give me a turf horse before I take a dirt to poly horse....plus for IWR, he's been so off form, not sure even Dutrow can pull this miracle off.

The difference of course is that I Want Revenge has some established form on synthetic tracks and most of the dirt horses that went to Santa Anita didn't. Plus, wasn't his effort in the Donn his best in a long time?

[toussaud]

I like for kinsale to repeat, going to go with buna vista in the world cup, still thinking about the rest. nice to see coolmore representing down there.

[toussaud]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

The difference of course is that I Want Revenge has some established form on synthetic tracks and most of the dirt horses that went to Santa Anita didn't. Plus, wasn't his effort in the Donn his best in a long time?

I want revenge's worst races were on synthetic. That was the whole point on going to NY. that's a horse that would just have to prove me wrong

[eastie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If there was exchange wagering in the US, betting against Cape Blanco in the World Cup would probably be one of the best bets in the history of betting.

please elaborate