Advice on playing Breeder's Cup (to save Mom's house!)

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

I play the Breeder's Cup big (well, for me it's big) every year. This year has a bit of a special significance... my mother is in serious danger of losing her home. She lost her business which was highly successful for 8 years, a women's clothing store on the Oregon Coast. The business went under because of a combination of the recession and fuel prices. Fuel prices because the stores in her area rely a great deal on RV'ers going up and down highway 101. They quit coming when fuel prices skyrocketted. She owes $300K on her house which is worth about $750K, and it's been for sale and dropped all the way down to $569K which is damn near a giveaway price for her property. Not even a single OFFER in this dead market. In a few months barring some miracle, she's going to lose everything she's worked for. ZERO hope for a refinance because she can't make the payments. I don't make enough money to get her a refi or enough to contribute anything more than token amounts either.

So back to the Breeder's Cup... I play every year, typically with a $2K bankroll. This year I couldn't afford it at all, so this year I sold a bunch of stuff on eBay in a massive "spring cleaning" type project to create a bankroll. It looks like my bankroll will be about $1500. If I get REALLY lucky I may have an extra $1K which will bump it to $2500. Honestly, I think to save my mom's home I'm going to need to come out ahead in EXCESS of $50,000.... no easy task. But as everyone here knows, Breeder's Cup presents the best opportunity of the year.

And people wonder why horse players are considered degenerate gamblers?

[Dave Schwartz]

Lateralus,

First, I applaude the people of PA for not being judgemental with you. Recall the famous (around here) PK Truck Driver thread where he spoke over and over again of "getting lucky." I can tell you that the PA guys were way tougher on him than they were you.

Second, my reality of this situation is a vision of $1,500 with wings on it flying into the sunset.

All that being said, what you are trying to do is get 33-1 on the money without any real "earned" advantage. I cannot imagine that anyone's posted picks are really going to be positive expectancy wagers of the magnitude that you need.

You are reduced to "trying to get lucky."

As most around here know, without an edge, the more wagers you make the worse it is for the negative expectancy gambler.

Therefore, my recommendation is as few wagers as possible. Probably the best deal for you would be to walk into a Las Vegas casino that will allow you a parlay of some kind - the roulette idea was a good one - probably the best shot you'll get.

But, since you aren't IN Las Vegas, the next best thing is pick sixes not only at the BC but around the country.


Now, this may sound like me plugging someone else's product, but just the other day I was reading one of Ken Massa's old newsletters where he spoke about his vulnerability index. I am sure one or more of his "posse" could point you to the article.

As Mr. Massa said in the article, (I paraphrase) "when you are in a contest and need a long shot the "Vi" will help you pick the race.

So, I would suggest that this would be a good project for some of his guys to post a few potential cards that have at least two races in the pick-six with a high "Vi" rating. Then you could structure some tickets in those races, to get the most bang for your buck.


Please note that my intention was not to put Mr. Massa on the spot. Perhaps he/they will have no interest. Perhaps it is too much work. On the other hand, it is nice potential exposure of a very good feature in a very good product.


Best of LUCK to you.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[DeadHeat]

In reality, you will need more than $50,000 because of the tax man.

[SMOO]

To quote a great man "click a mouse - lose a house"

[JustRalph]

I have seen it all on this board now.................

[tzipi]

Put it all on Gio Ponti to win! and a late double with him.

[my_nameaintearl]

take 200 of your bank roll buy a small pea shooter and rob a store you will have better luck then this "Plan" you have

[DRIVEWAY]

Of the 14 breeders cup races pick 5 races with the best potential for major league payoffs.

Wager 20% of your bankroll on each race. Concentrate on tri and super combinations.

This will give you the best chance of a score.
__________________________________________________ ____________

Have an open house and price your mother's house slightly below the fair market value. People will trip over one another making bids.

Price the house at $488K!!

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Of the 14 breeders cup races pick 5 races with the best potential for major league payoffs.

Wager 20% of your bankroll on each race. Concentrate on tri and super combinations.

This will give you the best chance of a score.
__________________________________________________ ____________

Have an open house and price your mother's house slightly below the fair market value. People will trip over one another making bids.

Price the house at $488K!!

Hey thanks for the advice DRIVEWAY. Honestly I think that's good advice, 5 races and taking a shot. $300 per. Hit one early with any luck provides ammo for hopefully hitting a monster.

As for the house, we literally had open houses from 10am to 6pm every weekend from early July through mid October and lowered the price several times. This is a pristine, 1.5 acre lakefront property on the Oregon Coast that looks like a friggin park. Seriously, you should see this place. New dock and pier too. Tons of people from the open houses through the place and all just raving about it. Yet not even an offer even though it is way, way below market. Yes she could lower it more but at this price and not even a lowball offer?? And I can say with absolute, 100% certainty her property is already priced WELL below all of the other lakefront property in this area. NOTHING is moving here. But we will continue to try. The problem with lowering it TOO much leaves little room for an offer.

Definitely appreciate the advice.

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by CBedo

And people wonder why horse players are considered degenerate gamblers?

The degenerates blow entire paychecks. If all horse players only wagered what they made selling excess "stuff" out of their garage on eBay (which they wouldn't have bothered spending the time selling anyway otherwise), would they be considered degenerates?

[Lateralus]

This is for those who believe my "plan" is absurd and "now they've read everything" etc. Remember, it's not a pay check. It's $1500 I raised from selling stuff in my garage I've just been storing, specifically with the intention of "taking a shot". So it's not as though I'm blowing a paycheck or something. I wouldn't have taken all the time to sell my excess "stuff" anyway. I know full well this is simply an attempt to hit one out of the park and end this problem with one swing of the bat. Fail? Certainly likely I'll strike out and I'm already beginning with an 0-2 count.... but I've got a job, will look for a better one, and I've got plenty more "stuff" I can sell on eBay.

And, yes indeed, (in case anyone refers to my first post) in many years past I've played about $2K over the course of Breeder's Cup thinking of hitting a giant pick 3 or pick 4, tri, super, whatever. All of those years however were years when money was easily plentiful enough for me to take a once a year, $2K shot on the Breeder's Cup. (And I had some big close calls with what would have been the monster pick 3's I was after I might add.) It isn't so this year, and hence my eBay "garage sale".

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by my_nameaintearl

take 200 of your bank roll buy a small pea shooter and rob a store you will have better luck then this "Plan" you have

I guess that means $1500 over the course of the Breeder's Cup gives one zero chance of hitting a decent tri or super then. Sorry, my mistake.

[Backstretch Pirate]

Get yourself a good coach. Just like Happy Gilmore did.

[The Hawk]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

Hey thanks for the advice DRIVEWAY. Honestly I think that's good advice, 5 races and taking a shot. $300 per. Hit one early with any luck provides ammo for hopefully hitting a monster.

As for the house, we literally had open houses from 10am to 6pm every weekend from early July through mid October and lowered the price several times. This is a pristine, 1.5 acre lakefront property on the Oregon Coast that looks like a friggin park. Seriously, you should see this place. New dock and pier too. Tons of people from the open houses through the place and all just raving about it. Yet not even an offer even though it is way, way below market. Yes she could lower it more but at this price and not even a lowball offer?? And I can say with absolute, 100% certainty her property is already priced WELL below all of the other lakefront property in this area. NOTHING is moving here. But we will continue to try. The problem with lowering it TOO much leaves little room for an offer.

Definitely appreciate the advice.

Hey Lateralus:

Post some pictures, maybe you'll spur some interest right here. It sounds incredible.

[Jay Trotter]

To win? I said place it on Gio Ponti to place!

Originally Posted by tzipi

Put it all on Gio Ponti to win! and a late double with him.