Did Restoring Hope help Justify tactically in the Belmont...?

[Hoops McCann]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Here is the aerial view of the race..... Freaking Gronk, man! Justify is big, but Gronk is bigger.....

https://www.nbcsports.com/video/2018...s-triple-crown

he is a specimen. but he can't seem to make it through a season without getting injured..........

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So you are definitely saying, there is no chance that the horse got rank when Geroux sent him up to be near the pace and he is a liar when making that statement?

CORRECTION:
Sorry, I meant to say the West family (owners of Restoring Hope) and NOT THE Barbers

[metro]

Originally Posted by Reggae

I'm sorry, but you clearly don't watch much tape on Bravazo. This was the only race where he was positioned "right behind the leader". It's not his style and has never been.



He had a perfect trip for about the first 1/6th of a mile when he was running on the outside of Justify before Restoring Hope darted up and angled in front of Bravazo putting him in what you wrongly think is a sweet spot for Bravazo "right behind the leader".



To add to that Saez didn't relinquish the second position. It was taken from him by Geroux who had no interest in the success of his horse and no interest of running a competitive pace with competitive positioning. Geroux rode with clear intent.



The only perfect trip Bravazo had was for Baffert, and that's because of Restoring Hope.

Every jockey can't get the trip they want. Bravazo drew an inside post and Saez wasn't going to get the trip he wanted without sending his horse harder for it, he didn't and still came up empty after a mile.

Restoring Hope's best races have all been while he was close to the pace, like he was Saturday. Heck, had it not been for the speed ball Old Time Revival in the Wood Memorial he would have had the exact trip stalking Enticed in that race that he did in the Belmont stalking Justify. He was basically ridden the same way he has been in all of his route races, save for the Pat Day Mile where he drew an extreme outside post on a track playing better to inside trips.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So you are definitely saying, there is no chance that the horse got rank when Geroux sent him up to be near the pace and he is a liar when making that statement?

No, I’m not calling anyone a liar here, I’m just trying to understand why the owners said they were livid...someone else suggested that Restoring Hope being push so hard early on may have contributed to his rankness which I tend to agree with...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

No, I’m not calling anyone a liar here, I’m just trying to understand why the owners said they were livid...someone else suggested that Restoring Hope being push so hard early on may have contributed to his ranknes which I tend to agree with...

Restoring Hope should not have been in the race...

I am trying to clarify yet whether it was West who wanted the horse in or Baffert, its usually West pushing those things. He wanted West Coast in the Belmont last year as well but Baffert talked him out of it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Do you remember the hot mic moment after the Pacific Classic where Baffert was coaching Martin Garcia what to say after the Bayern incident? Most people who know know Baffert is no angel when he's not in front of a camera.

I hear you, but I'm not sure what people expected to happen.

1. Restoring Hope is the same connections as Justify. I estimated the chances he would battle Justify at 1% (I'm leaving 1% for the saddle slipping or some other craziness).

2. Noble Indy is partially owned by Winstar. I actually used Noble Indy on my tickets. Terrible opinion aside , I thought there was no chance he was going to be used hard early running with Justify given the common ownership and the fact that going with him would be the optimal strategy for finishing last. I thought he'd sit close and pray Justify had a bad day or hopefully just hang around for a piece. If Castellano followed "Repole's instructions" I'm not sure if I would have been more shocked or more pissed off at all of them.

3. Restoring Hope was pushed out of the gate and went wide first turn, but I don't think the goal was to screw up Noble Indy. I think the goal was to get a close up position because that's how he runs best. Once he was traveling that fast it was harder for the horse to take the turn so he drifted out before setting in. Noble Indy was not even going for the lead at that point even though he broke well.

4. All of Justify, Restoring Hope, Bravazo, and Noble Indy took early positions exactly where I expected them to be to be given their past form, post positions, and best chances of winning.

5. Ironically, the one ride in the race I did not like was Velasquez's ride on Vino Rosso (also Repole and who I also used). IMO, Vino Rosso could not win making that somewhat premature move to stay with Justify after Smith let him out a notch. I've been watching races for over 40 years and I'm still waiting for an inferior horse to beat a faster superior horses by challenging him even earlier and making a premature move. IMO, he did not improve his chances of winning by moving early and he almost certainly blew 3rd.

Obviously, a lot of people disagree with me on a lot of aspects of this, but that's the way I saw it before and after the race.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So do I have this straight:

Some people are upset that an uncoupled entry from the same barn had a horse ridden aggressively to make sure that another horse from an uncoupled entry could not work in tandem with their stablemate to try and make sure that the best horse didn’t get a fair shake in the race?

Ok, only In horse racing. This sport man.

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Do people want the result changed?

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Are people saying that the best horse didnt win the race?

This is a bit disingenuous and sidesteps the issue. No one is saying the best horse didn't win or that the results shouldn't stand.

To say that Restoring Hope was in there to only to counter some sort of tag team effort from the Repole stable is dubious, too. Firstly, the Repole horses complimented one another, as Noble Indy won the Louisiana Derby on the lead while Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial off the pace. Vino Rosso surely was the favored of the two, but that doesn't mean Noble Indy was on some suicide mission. Only a Scooby Doo cartoon villain would dumb enough to hatch such a plan and then turn around and remove the blinkers on the horse. Noble Indy had credentials to be in the race and he had speed to ensure a honest pace.

Meanwhile, Restoring Hope--eligible for non-winners 1x--had the opportunity to hamper several horses in the race. In the first quarter mile--whether intentional or not--he: (1) cutoff Tenfold into the first turn, forcing that one to steady and alter course to the inside, (2) tried to float Noble Indy wide which was unnecessary since Castellano opted to grab a hold of his mount, and (3) mugged Bravazo around the first turn, forcing that one in behind Justify and along the rail.

So the two horses that threatened Justify late in the Preakness and the main pace rival were all potentially compromised. Such a coup hasn't been seen since Bayern was able to take out not only race favorite Shared Belief, but also main pace rival Moreno at the start of the 2014 BC Classic.

But beyond all that, as many have said, it simply tainted the race for them precisely because it was already clear that Justify was the best horse and was the most likely winner regardless. Noble Indy was in their to promote a bit of pace which certainly a Triple Crown champion ought to be able--and did at Pimlico--to handle.

Instead, rather than witnessing a true Test of the Champion, we all got to see another "Test Drive of the Champion".

At least American Pharoah's didn't have a police escort diverting traffic away from the highway...

[dilanesp]

The key decision was by Saez on Bravazo. If he sends his horse RH can't do a thing about it.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a bit disingenuous and sidesteps the issue. No one is saying the best horse didn't win or that the results shouldn't stand.

To say that Restoring Hope was in there to only to counter some sort of tag team effort from the Repole stable is dubious, too. Firstly, the Repole horses complimented one another, as Noble Indy won the Louisiana Derby on the lead while Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial off the pace. Vino Rosso surely was the favored of the two, but that doesn't mean Noble Indy was on some suicide mission. Only a Scooby Doo cartoon villain would dumb enough to hatch such a plan and then turn around and remove the blinkers on the horse. Noble Indy had credentials to be in the race and he had speed to ensure a honest pace.

Meanwhile, Restoring Hope--eligible for non-winners 1x--had the opportunity to hamper several horses in the race. In the first quarter mile--whether intentional or not--he: (1) cutoff Tenfold into the first turn, forcing that one to steady and alter course to the inside, (2) tried to float Noble Indy wide which was unnecessary since Castellano opted to grab a hold of his mount, and (3) mugged Bravazo around the first turn, forcing that one in behind Justify and along the rail.

So the two horses that threatened Justify late in the Preakness and the main pace rival were all potentially compromised. Such a coup hasn't been seen since Bayern was able to take out not only race favorite Shared Belief, but also main pace rival Moreno at the start of the 2014 BC Classic.

But beyond all that, as many have said, it simply tainted the race for them precisely because it was already clear that Justify was the best horse and was the most likely winner regardless. Noble Indy was in their to promote a bit of pace which certainly a Triple Crown champion ought to be able--and did at Pimlico--to handle.

Instead, rather than witnessing a true Test of the Champion, we all got to see another "Test Drive of the Champion".

At least American Pharoah's didn't have a police escort diverting traffic away from the highway...

National media is chiming in now that maybe the result is the best horse did not win, so we are seeing some affect to this silly crusade.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

National media is chiming in now that maybe the result is the best horse did not win, so we are seeing some affect to this silly crusade.

It's not the effect of some "silly crusade", it's the effect of questionable race tactics that weren't even really necessary.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

It's not the effect of some "silly crusade", it's the effect of questionable race tactics that weren't even really necessary.

Yea, thats what I mean, something that had no impact on the finish is the central focus while certainly the goal seems to be to take away something from the horse, which I think is wrong.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Yea, thats what I mean, something that had no impact on the finish is the central focus while certainly the goal seems to be to take away something from the horse, which I think is wrong.

I agree with you there. But for me, it's a case of Baffert shooting himself in the foot from a public perception standpoint (as opposed to a bunch of sore losers). Nothing new there really...

[ronsmac]

It had a similar feel to the 2014 Awesome Again that Shared Belief won.

[metro]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a bit disingenuous and sidesteps the issue. No one is saying the best horse didn't win or that the results shouldn't stand.

To say that Restoring Hope was in there to only to counter some sort of tag team effort from the Repole stable is dubious, too. Firstly, the Repole horses complimented one another, as Noble Indy won the Louisiana Derby on the lead while Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial off the pace. Vino Rosso surely was the favored of the two, but that doesn't mean Noble Indy was on some suicide mission. Only a Scooby Doo cartoon villain would dumb enough to hatch such a plan and then turn around and remove the blinkers on the horse. Noble Indy had credentials to be in the race and he had speed to ensure a honest pace.

Meanwhile, Restoring Hope--eligible for non-winners 1x--had the opportunity to hamper several horses in the race. In the first quarter mile--whether intentional or not--he: (1) cutoff Tenfold into the first turn, forcing that one to steady and alter course to the inside, (2) tried to float Noble Indy wide which was unnecessary since Castellano opted to grab a hold of his mount, and (3) mugged Bravazo around the first turn, forcing that one in behind Justify and along the rail.

So the two horses that threatened Justify late in the Preakness and the main pace rival were all potentially compromised. Such a coup hasn't been seen since Bayern was able to take out not only race favorite Shared Belief, but also main pace rival Moreno at the start of the 2014 BC Classic.

But beyond all that, as many have said, it simply tainted the race for them precisely because it was already clear that Justify was the best horse and was the most likely winner regardless. Noble Indy was in their to promote a bit of pace which certainly a Triple Crown champion ought to be able--and did at Pimlico--to handle.

Instead, rather than witnessing a true Test of the Champion, we all got to see another "Test Drive of the Champion".

At least American Pharoah's didn't have a police escort diverting traffic away from the highway...

If the two horses that threatened Justify in the Preakness were compromised it was only marginally. The chart caller for NYRA, one of the best imo, certainly didn't think so. For Tenfold it looked like they wanted to go to the rail all along based on how quick Santana went for it once it was available. Bravazo could have been sent to get position, Saez decided against it.

People are completely ignoring the fact that Restoring Hope's best chance, based on pps, was just the way he was ridden in the race. When the horse broke slow and had to send hard for position it created the optics so many are micro-analyzing. When RH starred to quit obviously it effects horse behind it, just like it would any horse race where front runners start to tire.

If Geroux's positioning compromised the chances of others that's as much on the other jockey's undoing as it is any fault of his.

Seriously, yourself or anyone that handicapped the Belmont, where did you expect to see Restoring Hope within the first mile of the race?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by metro

If the two horses that threatened Justify in the Preakness were compromised it was only marginally. The chart caller for NYRA, one of the best imo, certainly didn't think so. For Tenfold it looked like they wanted to go to the rail all along based on how quick Santana went for it once it was available. Bravazo could have been sent to get position, Saez decided against it.

The Tenfold issue was admittedly minor at best and certainly it would be dubious to say that it was intentional, but he still had to steady out of there to avoid a crush.

However, whatever the tactics were on Bravazo there is no denying he was mugged out of his spot outside Justify's flank and forced inwards by Restoring Hope.

People are completely ignoring the fact that Restoring Hope's best chance, based on pps, was just the way he was ridden in the race. When the horse broke slow and had to send hard for position it created the optics so many are micro-analyzing. When RH starred to quit obviously it effects horse behind it, just like it would any horse race where front runners start to tire.

Seriously, yourself or anyone that handicapped the Belmont, where did you expect to see Restoring Hope within the first mile of the race?

This is half the story.

Yes, I agree with you that Restoring Hope was very much likely to be near the first flight based on past performances.

However, in what circumstance would you expect him to go 6-wide into the first turn and then come back inwards to the 2-path in the middle of the first turn is a question for Carnac the Magnificent.