Buying the Rainbow 6 ?

[davew]

I have calculated the last few days what it would cost to purchase every combination - if I have done it correctly, it has been in the $60K to $90K range depending on number of horses running that day.

The disadvantages of this are
-most times you will share with many people and get back ? $2K - $10K ?
-if any late scratches you automatically will not get the rainbow if the favorite wins that leg
-the pool will eventually get so high, a couple groups may start trying to buy and then nobody will win the rainbow
-you may be stuck a few million by the time mandatory pay-out occurs

Are there any other disadvantages I have not thought about?
and if you were going to try this, when would be the best time to start?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by davew

you may be stuck a few million by the time mandatory pay-out occurs

Are there any other disadvantages I have not thought about?

Ummm...no
That's a pretty big one, though.

[Saratoga_Mike]

This is a horrible bet...until the mandatory payout at the end of the meet, then it turns into a great bet.

Does anyone know what GP will consider the last day of the "meet" this yr? Will it be the end of June? Or will it be sometime in April when presumably the winter meet ends? I can't find the info on the GP website.

[therussmeister]

I think Gulfstream is scheduled to drop Wednesday racing at the end of March, and race Thurs-Sunday through Summer, so end of March is the likely candidate for the end of meet.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

This is a horrible bet...until the mandatory payout at the end of the meet, then it turns into a great bet.

Does anyone know what GP will consider the last day of the "meet" this yr? Will it be the end of June? Or will it be sometime in April when presumably the winter meet ends? I can't find the info on the GP website.

I sort of agree with you, but i think that the RB6 could become an ok bet IF you pound the chalk and don't try to be the only winner. Stick with favorites and even with the huge takeout, you can make up that difference by knowing that there are a ton of money on what amounts to "no shot" horses.

I think you need a rainy day to pull this off, where fields get decimated and you can find a few singles that are going to pay 3 and change to win...most of the time though, if its fast and firm, the races are too competitive at GP to try this "chalk" strategy.

Overall i agree with your premise, its best to save your money and brain cells for closing day.

[davew]

$88+ K for todays 6 of 6 (of course would be less with another)

What would get withheld from a ticket like that?

If you lived in NY and placed a bet through NYRARewards, would they withhold state as well as Federal even if the track was in FL?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by davew

$88+ K for todays 6 of 6 (of course would be less with another)

What would get withheld from a ticket like that?

If you lived in NY and placed a bet through NYRARewards, would they withhold state as well as Federal even if the track was in FL?

Yes.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by davew

$88+ K for todays 6 of 6 (of course would be less with another)

What would get withheld from a ticket like that?

If you lived in NY and placed a bet through NYRARewards, would they withhold state as well as Federal even if the track was in FL?

Parlay was 71k so it paid nicely considering the large "takeout".

[Pensacola Pete]

The racing year ends for both Calder and Gulfstream on June 29th. They then get another year of dates from Florida.

[ManU918]

Originally Posted by davew

I have calculated the last few days what it would cost to purchase every combination - if I have done it correctly, it has been in the $60K to $90K range depending on number of horses running that day.

The disadvantages of this are
-most times you will share with many people and get back ? $2K - $10K ?
-if any late scratches you automatically will not get the rainbow if the favorite wins that leg
-the pool will eventually get so high, a couple groups may start trying to buy and then nobody will win the rainbow
-you may be stuck a few million by the time mandatory pay-out occurs

Are there any other disadvantages I have not thought about?
and if you were going to try this, when would be the best time to start?

You cant be serious with this...You should have stopped after the first disadvantage and if you think multiple groups would ever think about doing this... Your wrong.. No one/group is dumb enough to try to "buy" a jackpot pool.

Today is a perfect example of why trying to buy it is a horrible idea. If you attempted to buy it today it would have cost $58,212. The first 5 races were won by 5/2, 9/1, 6/1, 47/1 and 9/5..... And only 1 horse out of 10 was paying the jackpot. That means if a group of us here are at PA decided that going into today we were in fact going to buy it, we would of lost money because we would have only gotten back 58 dimes before taxes. After taxes it would have been $43,500....

On Thursday if a group wanted to buy it, it would cost $118,800.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I sort of agree with you, but i think that the RB6 could become an ok bet IF you pound the chalk and don't try to be the only winner. Stick with favorites and even with the huge takeout, you can make up that difference by knowing that there are a ton of money on what amounts to "no shot" horses.

I think you need a rainy day to pull this off, where fields get decimated and you can find a few singles that are going to pay 3 and change to win...most of the time though, if its fast and firm, the races are too competitive at GP to try this "chalk" strategy.

Overall i agree with your premise, its best to save your money and brain cells for closing day.

In any 6 race sequence there is going to be at least one surprise, or at least a horse or two that "I could have had if I took just a bit wider view", if you know what I mean. (Yes there are exceptions, but as a general rule, this premise will hold) Very, very seldom can you straight up handicap a card and get a clear view of 6 consecutive races which would lead you to a chalky ticket. Never count on the general public or the morning line maker to get you there, that's for sure.

[davew]

Originally Posted by ManU918

You cant be serious with this...You should have stopped after the first disadvantage and if you think multiple groups would ever think about doing this... Your wrong.. No one/group is dumb enough to try to "buy" a jackpot pool.

Today is a perfect example of why trying to buy it is a horrible idea. If you attempted to buy it today it would have cost $58,212. The first 5 races were won by 5/2, 9/1, 6/1, 47/1 and 9/5..... And only 1 horse out of 10 was paying the jackpot. That means if a group of us here are at PA decided that going into today we were in fact going to buy it, we would of lost money because we would have only gotten back 58 dimes before taxes. After taxes it would have been $43,500....

On Thursday if a group wanted to buy it, it would cost $118,800.

Yes I am in a theoretical sort of way. I have heard that groups have 'bought' big lotteries with huge carry-overs (but that may just be an urban legend).

I figure there must be a 'sweet spot' where a daily addition would be +ve EV until it got to the point that it was so big, it would carry-over to last day mandatory pay-out.

I wouldn't recommend it for a group from PA, but am thinking of a group with a huge bankroll, that could get cash quick, as it would take up towards a half a million a week as long as you were attacking.

I am not sure where you got the $58 K value, my charts show $88 K for today.

So far this month on February 2 and February 13 there were only 5 of 6 winners, which implys to me that buying the pool would have worked on those days.

So ManU918, when would be the first disadvantage and time to stop?

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by davew

Yes I am in a theoretical sort of way. I have heard that groups have 'bought' big lotteries with huge carry-overs (but that may just be an urban legend).

I figure there must be a 'sweet spot' where a daily addition would be +ve EV until it got to the point that it was so big, it would carry-over to last day mandatory pay-out.

I wouldn't recommend it for a group from PA, but am thinking of a group with a huge bankroll, that could get cash quick, as it would take up towards a half a million a week as long as you were attacking.

I am not sure where you got the $58 K value, my charts show $88 K for today.

So far this month on February 2 and February 13 there were only 5 of 6 winners, which implys to me that buying the pool would have worked on those days.

So ManU918, when would be the first disadvantage and time to stop?

I would stop with this thread and not worry about Manu. This is silly. Your throwing out numbers like its play money. A half a million a week like its no big deal. Its just beyond silly.

[ManU918]

Originally Posted by davew

Yes I am in a theoretical sort of way. I have heard that groups have 'bought' big lotteries with huge carry-overs (but that may just be an urban legend).

I figure there must be a 'sweet spot' where a daily addition would be +ve EV until it got to the point that it was so big, it would carry-over to last day mandatory pay-out.

I wouldn't recommend it for a group from PA, but am thinking of a group with a huge bankroll, that could get cash quick, as it would take up towards a half a million a week as long as you were attacking.

I am not sure where you got the $58 K value, my charts show $88 K for today.

So far this month on February 2 and February 13 there were only 5 of 6 winners, which implys to me that buying the pool would have worked on those days.

So ManU918, when would be the first disadvantage and time to stop?

It did pay 88K yesterday because 2 people had winning tickets but if a group decided to try to buy it yesterday it would have paid 58K for three winning tickets.

I think if you put up a public poll for this...There would be one vote who thought this was a good idea, you.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

The racing year ends for both Calder and Gulfstream on June 29th. They then get another year of dates from Florida.

Thank you.