Anyone Know who Tim Osterman is?

[goatchaser]

Met him a couple of times when working for Todays Racing Digest in the 80's. He still works for them. I thought he was an arrogant SOB. Anyways............
he wrote this little article for Todays Racing Digest

The Osterman Files – Twelve Reasons Why He Won’t

May 21st, 2014 by John Scheidt
On the cusp, yet again. California Chrome’s convincing Preakness’ success at Pimlico on Saturday puts him on a potential red carpet stroll to racing immortality. In less than three weeks, the paparazzi will be out in force to take his photo as he makes the walk over to the Belmont paddock amid all the razzle-dazzle the situation merits. Then, they’ll run the race….
It’s a time when racing fans forget about commonsense and forget about the past. They just want California Chrome to win the Triple Crown. Those that have backed him through the first two legs aren’t about to pull their support at this stage. They may not take the short price on the favorite to win but they won’t be betting against him either. Many others who have tried to beat him in the Derby and Preakness will finally jump on the bandwagon because they can no longer I.D. potential contenders who might beat California Chrome. Just remember the following 12 reasons why he could easily fail.
1. SPECTACULAR BID (1979) – Coming on the heels of three Triple Crown winners in just six years, it was supposed to be an afterthought that the ‘Bid would add his name to the roster. He won the Derby by daylight at 3/5, cruised in the Preakness at 1/10 and couldn’t lose the Belmont at 30-cents on the dollar. He finished third. Whether it was a bone-head ride by rogue bug-boy Ronnie Franklin or an over-confident training job by Buddy Delp or that mythical safety pin or an inability to get 12 furlongs doesn’t matter. Spectacular Bid lost the Belmont and California Chrome is no Spectacular Bid.
2. PLEASANT COLONY (1981) – He took the Derby at 7/2 and the Preakness at 3/2. In the Belmont he acted up in the gate, broke last of 11 and could only rally into third as the 4/5 chalk. He’s only a footnote now.
3. ALYSHEBA (1987) – His Derby win was miraculous and he did enough to take the Preakness with a late surge. However, he was a no-show in New York while finishing more than 14 lengths behind at 4/5. He proved himself to be a great horse down the road but he lost the Belmont and lost it badly.
4. SUNDAY SILENCE (1989) – He “upset” Easy Goer at Churchill and Pimlico but when they got to his foe’s home track, it was no contest. Easy Goer had the 4/5 chalk for lunch that day.
5. SILVER CHARM (1997) – Baffert’s grey won photos at 4/1 and 3/1 in the first two legs and had the lead inside the furlong pole at even money in the third. Touch Gold came and got him.
6. REAL QUIET (1998) – Something of a second-stringer for Baffert, he upset the Derby field at 8/1 and dominated Victory Gallop in the Preakness. He was four clear of that foe with a furlong to go in the Belmont but lost by a lip before having the lead again past the wire. Desormeaux’s fault or the racing gods just having some fun? You make the call.
7. CHARMISMATIC (1999) – On the block for a $62,500 tag in February, he won the Derby at 31/1 and was 8/1 when he repeated in Maryland. By Belmont Day he was the 8/5 favorite and looked on his way to victory before breaking an ankle inside the furlong pole. He never ran again.
8. WAR EMBLEM (2002) – He wired them at CD (20/1), beat them again on the front end at PIM (5/2) and was never heard from at BEL (6/5) after stumbling badly at the start and becoming very rank.
9. FUNNY CIDE (2003) – The New York-bred gelding won the Derby and the Preakness but was exposed in the Belmont where he had no excuses as an 8/5 flop.
10. SMARTY JONES (2004) – Hugely popular after winning his first eight starts in smashing fashion, the party ended when he coughed up a daylight lead to Birdstone (36/1) in the final furlong. He simply couldn’t stay the distance.
11. BIG BROWN (2008) – The only way he could lose the Belmont at 1/5 odds
was if he got pulled up. He got pulled up.
12. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (2012) – He injured an ankle days before his date
with destiny and didn’t even make the race.

There you have it — twelve reasons why California Chrome is no cinch no matter how low the odds when he shows up in New York. Some of these Belmont “losers” had more talent than California Chrome, some had less. They all lost because that’s the kind of race we’re dealing with. If California Chrome can’t overcome recent history, we’ll have a “baker’s dozen” since Affirmed in 1978.

Posted in The Osterman Files

3 thoughts on “The Osterman Files – Twelve Reasons Why He Won’t”

Tim Ford May 21, 2014 at 9:17 pm
I Know You’re right,But I hope Your are
wrong

Reply ↓
Anne May 22, 2014 at 3:13 pm
Easy Goer defeated Sunday Silence by 8 lengths in the Belmont ( the extent of the loss still stuns me) but Sunday Silence got his revenge in the Breeders Cup Classic. Only once did Easy Goer defeat Sunday Silence and it was the distance. However,
as a sire Sunday Silence towered over Easy Goer. I loved both horses.

Reply ↓
Dave May 22, 2014 at 3:25 pm
Mr. Osterman,

Typically your files are right on the money. While we all appreciate your insight to this historic day, I believe you have it wrong. C.C. has a heart like no other horse in your category of 12 as you will see come the first Saturday in June. I predict he draws PP #4 for the Belmont. Along with his others of #5 at CD and #3 at Pimlico….they add up to 12. YES, he will be the 12th triple crown champion and most likely the last to ever accomplish this task. GO CHROME

[horses4courses]

There are some excellent horses in that list.
It certainly won't be easy for CC at Belmont.

I had heard of Osterman at TRD, but haven't seen that publication in years.
I know less about him than you do.

Can't argue with his logic, even though many racing fans don't want to hear it.

[RunForTheRoses]

I don't know if he is an arrogant SOB or not, never met him, but I've bought his analysis and have had some real good days using this, not so much every pick but he can put you on some bombs (while leaving out some obvious horses).

Just skimmed over the article but it makes sense, if Bid could lose why not CC. He does seem more consistent than the others but one of them may throw a big one o Belmont Day (let alone the distance factor and the grind of the TC).

[GaryG]

I don't know where he is from but he used to publish trip notes and horses to watch for Northern California and they were excellent. That was 10-15 years ago.

[Bullet Plane]

I think a couple could have got there with better rides...

5) Silver Charm 1997- beat by a better horse... Touch Gold

6) Real Quiet 1998 - Jockey fault - Kent D. started run too early

9) Funny Cide 2003 - beat by a better horse... Empire Maker

10) Smarty Jones 2004- Jockey fault- started run too early.. probably Stewart Elliot tricked by veteran Jerry Bailey...

[Tall One]

McCarron will tell you today he cost Alysheba the TC with his Belmont ride..

[Bullet Plane]

Interesting, if that is the case then...

you have 4 bad rides

1) Spectacular Bid- 1979

2) Alysheba- 1987

3) Real Quiet- 1998

4) Smarty Jones- 2004

and two bad starts

1) Pleasant Colony- 1981

2) War Emblem- 2002

and two injury related

1) Charismatic -1999

2) Big Brown - 2008 ?

[dannyhill]

What looks like a bad ride can sometimes be caused by a horse feeling another horse coming up to him and he takes off so not to be passed. Not much a jockey can do sometimes. Smarty Jones if i remember was like that in the Belmont.

[FantasticDan]

No excuse for Funny Cide? Funny worked a blistering 5F right before the Belmont, and I remember Tagg was anything but pleased about it. There was a lot of speculation it might take something out if him for the test of champions, and it's hard to argue that it didn't.

[Tom]

Funny Cide had a legitimate excuse - Empire Maker.

[FantasticDan]

Originally Posted by Tom

Funny Cide had a legitimate excuse - Empire Maker.

That too

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

I think a couple could have got there with better rides...

5) Silver Charm 1997- beat by a better horse... Touch Gold

6) Real Quiet 1998 - Jockey fault - Kent D. started run too early

9) Funny Cide 2003 - beat by a better horse... Empire Maker

10) Smarty Jones 2004- Jockey fault- started run too early.. probably Stewart Elliot tricked by veteran Jerry Bailey...

Touch Gold was a better horse than Silver Charm? Really? By what method of comparison?

[Bullet Plane]

Yes, quite a bit better in my opinion.

And in the Preakness, Touch Gold would have won that one, but for a very troubled trip.

He appeared to have much better talent to me..as I witnessed that race... and I bet him in the Belmont Stakes...

So, of course... I'm a bit prejudice in his favor..

In terms of overall success... he was obviously not in the same league with Silver Charm...

However, it was due to his lack of soundness... and not talent level...

I think Touch Gold was a faster, more talented horse.

What's your explanation for why he beat Silver Charm in the Belmont?

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Yes, quite a bit better in my opinion.

And in the Preakness, Touch Gold would have won that one, but for a very troubled trip.

He appeared to have much better talent to me..as I witnessed that race... and I bet him in the Belmont Stakes...

So, of course... I'm a bit prejudice in his favor..

In terms of overall success... he was obviously not in the same league with Silver Charm...

However, it was due to his lack of soundness... and not talent level...

I think Touch Gold was a faster, more talented horse.

What's your explanation for why he beat Silver Charm in the Belmont?

I don't think Stevens or Silver Charm saw TG until he was past him.Not to mention Charm had had hard races in the Derby and Preakness. It was the race of TG's life as he went on to win the Haskell off a perfect trip and was pretty much never heard from again save for an allowance win the next year. Sliver Charm went on to win almost 7 million including finishing far ahead of TG in the 98 BC Classic.

[SpotPlays]

Actually, just heard sad news via a friend in the racing industry that Tim O. passed away this week. Didn't know him but read his work in the past. Died way too soon.