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View Poll Results: What are the true odds of a Baffert Trifecta in the Kentucky Derby
200-1 or more 68 37.99%
100-1 to 199-1 22 12.29%
60-1 to 99-1 14 7.82%
20-1 to 59-1 16 8.94%
Ain't gonna happen so I wouldn't bet a nickel 59 32.96%
Voters: 179. This poll is closed

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Old 12-09-2018, 08:53 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Art Wilson: What are the odds Baffert runs 1-2-3 in the Derby?

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Old 12-09-2018, 09:21 AM   #2
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The Baffert Curse is born.
He will win the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, with three different horses!
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Old 12-09-2018, 10:04 AM   #3
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The Baffert Curse is born.
He will win the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, with three different horses!
What are the odds that Gary Stevens makes a comeback to ride a Baffert long shot and pulls this off in the Belmont, while winning in a slowly paced turf-like race, in one of worst bad-beats of all time?


Andy can 'drive board content' as he proverbially explodes, and of course someone will tell us that this is one of the weakest 3yo crops...
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-09-2018 at 10:07 AM. Reason: are stewards allowed to vote on this poll?
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Old 12-09-2018, 01:50 PM   #4
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Each year statistically with the number of Foals going down the possibility is high.
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Old 12-09-2018, 01:54 PM   #5
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Sunny Jim and the Jones boys were equally dominant in their day, but never did it. (Jones ran 1-2 in 1948.) So I say no.
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Old 12-09-2018, 02:37 PM   #6
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Ignore the odds

Put it this way - it's much more likely to happen for Baffert than anyone else.
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Old 12-09-2018, 03:08 PM   #7
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At some point, I am sure either Pletcher or Brown will have all 20 horses in a Derby, so.......

Predicted pace
26.3 52.3 118.2 145.4
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Old 12-09-2018, 09:07 PM   #8
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OK I'll say it Horse racing in general is very weak. 20 years ago would you see 1/5 choices as much as you see today? WEAK all over.
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Old 12-09-2018, 11:46 PM   #9
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While I could believe the stats with debut juveniles is his all-time best, I'd hesitate to say that this is Baffert's best crop of male juveniles. Only Game Winner and Improbable have won major stakes as the year comes to a close. Certainly Baffert has been more productive (in terms of graded stakes wins/placings) in other seasons. For example:

2002

VINDICATION
KAFWAIN
BULL MARKET
ICECOLDBEERATREDS
CHIEF PLANNER
FRIENDLY MIKE
TRUCKLE FEATURE
SPENSIVE
INDIAN EXPRESS
ROJO TORO
DOMESTIC DISPUTE

1998

EXPLOIT
PRIME TIMBER
FORESTRY
GENERAL CHALLENGE
NATIONAL SAINT
PREMIER PROPERTY
AMERICAN SPIRIT
MUSICAL SWEEP
BRILLIANTLY
FINDER’S GOLD
BLACK MERCURY

A quick glance at the subsequent records of these Baffert maiden 2yo winners of yesteryear should confirm the level-headed prediction that most of the 2018 horses will be quickly run through with no more than 2 or 3 (if that) still around come Derby Day.

With the 2018 debut-winning males thus far:

Roadster - 3 months off following DM Futurity
Tale of the Union - no works since debut in August
Magic On Tap - no works since debut in September
Metropol - unraced since October debut, first work in nearly one month yesterday
Cruel Intention - no works since state-bred stakes win in October
Count Di Luna - no works since debut in November

Personally, I wouldn't put faith in either a Candy Ride (Game Winner) or a City Zip (Improbable) being able to see out 10 furlongs as 3yos in the spring--never mind both--so I don't see this bunch as some sort of bumper crop, especially when laid against some of his previous groups.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:51 AM   #10
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Can a trainer take a runner off- track to a private facility for a fairly long period for training and race prep work prior to returning to the barns at the main public track...?
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:10 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
While I could believe the stats with debut juveniles is his all-time best, I'd hesitate to say that this is Baffert's best crop of male juveniles. Only Game Winner and Improbable have won major stakes as the year comes to a close. Certainly Baffert has been more productive (in terms of graded stakes wins/placings) in other seasons. For example:

2002

VINDICATION
KAFWAIN
BULL MARKET
ICECOLDBEERATREDS
CHIEF PLANNER
FRIENDLY MIKE
TRUCKLE FEATURE
SPENSIVE
INDIAN EXPRESS
ROJO TORO
DOMESTIC DISPUTE

1998

EXPLOIT
PRIME TIMBER
FORESTRY
GENERAL CHALLENGE
NATIONAL SAINT
PREMIER PROPERTY
AMERICAN SPIRIT
MUSICAL SWEEP
BRILLIANTLY
FINDERíS GOLD
BLACK MERCURY

A quick glance at the subsequent records of these Baffert maiden 2yo winners of yesteryear should confirm the level-headed prediction that most of the 2018 horses will be quickly run through with no more than 2 or 3 (if that) still around come Derby Day.

With the 2018 debut-winning males thus far:

Roadster - 3 months off following DM Futurity
Tale of the Union - no works since debut in August
Magic On Tap - no works since debut in September
Metropol - unraced since October debut, first work in nearly one month yesterday
Cruel Intention - no works since state-bred stakes win in October
Count Di Luna - no works since debut in November

Personally, I wouldn't put faith in either a Candy Ride (Game Winner) or a City Zip (Improbable) being able to see out 10 furlongs as 3yos in the spring--never mind both--so I don't see this bunch as some sort of bumper crop, especially when laid against some of his previous groups.
I think you underrate Candy Ride as a sire. (Agree with you about City Zip though.) Game Winner is a very legitimate Derby horse.
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:14 AM   #12
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The colt (Improbable) is trained by Baffert and we've had two pretty good performances to judge his ability. He's got a ton of room to improve over both those starts IMO.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:55 PM   #13
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My money would be on Cruel Intention. For 10F +

I don't like Game Winner for the derby, but if things kick in, and we get to see him at less short distances, he would be a good BEL contender.

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Old 12-10-2018, 08:43 PM   #14
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I think you underrate Candy Ride as a sire. (Agree with you about City Zip though.) Game Winner is a very legitimate Derby horse.
Candy Ride is no doubt a top sire but he has yet to produce a classic winner and most of his offspring seem to bottom out at 9 furlongs.

Shared Belief, who I'd label a "preternatural" talent (e.g., Holy Bull, Skip Away) whose pedigree was moot for the most part, is his only 10 furlong winner at 3 years of age (Pacific Classic on an all-weather surface).

Gun Runner was finally able to see out 10 furlongs (by out-footing a City Zip colt) in his penultimate start after several failed attempts earlier in his career. He, along with Shared Belief (Santa Anita Handicap), are his only 10 furlong Grade 1 winners on conventional dirt.

Misremembered, who failed miserably in the Pacific Classic at 3, was able to win a terrible rendition of the Santa Anita Handicap (favorite was St. Trinians, who should have been tackling Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita) on an all-weather surface at 4 and Ascend won the Manhattan on turf as a 5yo last year are his only other 10 furlong winners at the highest level.
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Old 12-11-2018, 11:09 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Candy Ride is no doubt a top sire but he has yet to produce a classic winner and most of his offspring seem to bottom out at 9 furlongs.

Shared Belief, who I'd label a "preternatural" talent (e.g., Holy Bull, Skip Away) whose pedigree was moot for the most part, is his only 10 furlong winner at 3 years of age (Pacific Classic on an all-weather surface).

Gun Runner was finally able to see out 10 furlongs (by out-footing a City Zip colt) in his penultimate start after several failed attempts earlier in his career. He, along with Shared Belief (Santa Anita Handicap), are his only 10 furlong Grade 1 winners on conventional dirt.

Misremembered, who failed miserably in the Pacific Classic at 3, was able to win a terrible rendition of the Santa Anita Handicap (favorite was St. Trinians, who should have been tackling Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita) on an all-weather surface at 4 and Ascend won the Manhattan on turf as a 5yo last year are his only other 10 furlong winners at the highest level.
There aren't a lot of G1 races at 1 1/4 miles! Gun Runner's previous tries included the Dubai World Cup where he got beat by a freakish performance by Arrogate.

And Candy Ride himself was a G1 winner at 1 1/4 miles.

Game Winner should do fine if he is good enough.
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