Colts cover?? - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist · 02-02-2010, 12:09 PM

Manning will need to face a tougher defense than this to have a bad game. In some respects, the Saints pass D is very good. In others, its average.

The good: excellent QB rating against of 68.6 (3rd best) and 3rd best in interceptions. It should be pointed out that INTs are a big factor in the QB rating, so its a bit of duplicity to mention both.

The average or below: 236 yards/game against (26th). Granted, the Saints were ahead in most of the games so the opponents had to pass. Yards/attempt: 6.9 (tied for 15th) Sacks: 35 (tied for 13th).

My conclusion: the Saints play a gambling style of defense that is good at forcing INTs. They can absolutely destroy mediocre QBs or mistake prone QBs. But the yards/attempt stat tells me that they just give up too many pass plays. Manning is simply one of the all time greats and will not be tricked into INTs. The Saints have nobody like Revis to blanket Reggie Wayne, and the Colts can also come at you with Clark, Garcon and Collie. Too many weapons......the Saints have their share of weapons as well. The total is high but I'd still side with the OVER.

skate · 02-02-2010, 01:06 PM

I usually end up with taking the plus side of the money line.

I think the colts are better,but that only comes off the Vikings game where they outplayed the saints.

It only takes a funny bounce, so i'd like to be sitting with a plus on the money instead of trying to figure which way the ball might bounce.

Right now, i see the colts as better, but with the loss of #93, i'll take a chance with +170.

Hank · 02-02-2010, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg

That's exactly the way that I saw it, and I didn't think that gameday coaching was very good either.

Lets see, He throws 3 tds, 0 ints,0 fumbles, his team scores 31 points and wins the NFC and he was like a deer in headlights.

pandy · 02-02-2010, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank

Lets see, He throws 3 tds, 0 ints,0 fumbles, his team scores 31 points and wins the NFC and he was like a deer in headlights.

Good point, Brees actually played extremely well in the first half.

headhawg · 02-02-2010, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank

Lets see, He throws 3 tds, 0 ints,0 fumbles, his team scores 31 points and wins the NFC and he was like a deer in headlights.

This just proves to me that people like you don't actually watch the games. By your logic Minnesota should have won because they had better stats. If the NFL season was a mutuel pool guys like me would have all of your money.

Pace Cap'n · 02-02-2010, 10:16 PM

Random headline spotted...

"Bettors line up for a big Pey-day"

headhawg · 02-02-2010, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

No, the Freeney loss will be bigger. When the pass rush isn't as effective, the DBs have to cover longer.

Yes, for sure. And it sounds like even if he does play he is going to be limited. To me, this is HUGE. I am not sure which way to play now, if at all.

newtothegame · 02-02-2010, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

No, the Freeney loss will be bigger. When the pass rush isn't as effective, the DBs have to cover longer. Mathis is still a high quality DE but a guy like Freeney really makes everybody on the defense better, especially the corners.

Actually, I think they both go hand in hand. A defensive line needs a corner to be able to cover for a few seconds while they have time to get there and a CB needs a d line to get there so they dont have to cover as long....
I think the difference is that brees gets rid of the ball so fast that I weight the CB side more important. The vikings didnt record a sack due to brees getting rid of the ball so quick. It had nothing to do with Allen being slow. The CB's have to make very quick reads against brees.

eastie · 02-03-2010, 01:51 AM

a couple of observations. The Colts Saints and Vikings were clearly the best teams this year. Of the 3 The Saints whipped everyone they played, while the other 2 teams didn't. The Vikings are very good, but the Saints figured out a way to win. They were really the best team all year and will defeat the Colts. I think the Vikes would have won the Super Bowl too vs. the Colts if they made it instead. If the number ends up 6.....The Saints are a huge play, as the solid 6 is the death number for the favorite. 6 point faves very rarely cover spreads, and lose outright all the time......

Rookies · 02-03-2010, 08:24 PM

Although I think Manning is the best & most intelligent player in the game, that Freeney out will hurt the Colts D. Breeze has many, many weapons to score with and can contend in a shoot out with Manning .

Believe the Aints have a good shot at winning outright and therefore will take them on the ML for a couple of bucks.

GLTA

NJ Stinks · 02-04-2010, 01:51 AM

I thought the Chargers were one of the top 3 teams this year. Still haven't figured out how the Jets beat them.

I do know their coach struggles in playoff games. To put it nicely.

LutherCalvin · 02-05-2010, 10:50 AM

Four-time Grammy Award winner Carrie Underwood will sing the national anthem at Sunday's Superbowl game. The over-under on the length of her rendition of "The Star-Spangled Banner" is 1 minute, 42 seconds.

Oh, yeah, the game. The Indianapolis Colts are currently 5 point favorites over the sentimental favorites, the New Orleans (or do you say Nawlings) Saints. It should be an interesting game with the NFL's two best quarterbacks. Both teams should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. The Colt defense is a little banged up with Freeney not at 100%.

The Saints "D" is an opportunistic bunch and will rely on "sending a message" to Peyton Manning and creating turnovers. So you might say they have a "punchers chance" of winning. Peyton Manning is as steady as they come and is a true field general. He frequently audibles and has a quick release that prevents a lot of sacks.

Peyton and the Colts put up 30 points on the best defense in football, the NY Jets, in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints won a turnover game to beat the Vikings in their championship tilt. The Colts have won every game that Peyton Manning played in the entire game this year. The Saints have a mission.

My heart says the underdog, emotional Saints will prevail over the cool, collected Colts. Make it 27-24 Saints.

skate · 02-05-2010, 03:32 PM

For what it's worth

I see 5s from -5.5, still +1.70 money line.

Overlay · 02-05-2010, 07:26 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playof...ory?id=4889508

Not exactly an unbiased party, but Tony's certainly not hesitant about speaking his mind:

"Dungy, who led Indianapolis to a Super Bowl XLI victory in 2007, said the Saints' difficulty in closing out the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC title game was evidence the Colts will have a convincing upper hand come Sunday.

"'Minnesota is playing in New Orleans, they turn the ball over five times, have two or three stupid penalties and still lose in overtime,' Dungy told The Times. 'I don't see how it's going to be close. The Colts aren't going to turn it over seven times.'"

tribecaagent · 02-05-2010, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg

Yes, for sure. And it sounds like even if he does play he is going to be limited. To me, this is HUGE. I am not sure which way to play now, if at all.

Does it really make a difference?

You said earlier in this thread (with which I agree) that Peyton has a huge edge in a shootout. Why would you be so concerned with a defensive player for the Colts? Let the game become a shootout and watch P. Manning cover the spread.