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Old 03-20-2018, 02:25 PM   #1
letswastemoney
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Louisiana Derby

These are my initial thoughts.

Bravazo - It feels like last time was the time to take a chance with him. Value is gone now, right? Odds and value aside, he is a contender.

Noble Indy - Risen Star went in a merry-go-round. Things could change. Not sure if blinkers will help, but he has a chance with a small step forward.

Marmello - Ambitious spot for a maiden.

Givemeaminit - None of his route attempts are strong. After four attempts at failing to hit the Top 3 going two turns, it does not feel like the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles will help.

Retirement Fund - Faded badly in the Southwest after a strong pace, but does not seem like a realistic contender. Needs a class drop.

Hyndford - Second to Magnum Moon last out, although the latter won in a hand ride. It is a bit concerning they put this one in a claimer only two starts ago.

Snapper Sinclair - Good effort in the Risen Star. He set the pace and almost held on. It is strange most of the horses never changed position. He is a contender regardless.

Lone Sailor - Looks like a mud horse. The Feb. 19 effort over a fast track is decent considering the pace, but it came in an optional claimer.

My Boy Jack - Is he a mud horse as well? Did the "golden rail" at Oaklawn help? These are the questions he must answer.

Dark Templar - Slow horse who likes to run on the pace drew poorly. Needs a miracle.

Tough race. The best horses will appear logical to the public.

I prefer the Risen Star trio of Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair and Noble Indy, but I could change my mind.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 03-20-2018 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 03-20-2018, 05:03 PM   #2
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This race does seemingly lack star power this year but LA Derby horses do have a knack of hitting the Kentucky Derby exotics, occasionally at long odds.

Bravazo - Gets a hall of fame rider and third start from mild layoff. Has the Buckpasser-x. No shortage of dosage points but nothing on the solid or professional. Contender.

Noble Indy - Brisnet figures have been steady through first three starts. JV a solid rider but likely needs to step up to win here. Comes from female family 1 which has had some good success at distance.

Marmello - Why? Would need at 20 point Brisnet bump to contend here. Potential scratch.

Givemeaminit - Dallas Stewart special gets the services of Castellano. Mr. P on top and female family 1 but would need a solid step up to contend for the top prize. He's had 8 starts to figure it out.

Retirement Fund - I'm willing to draw a line through last out in the mud. Female family 17b is the same as Gun Runner. This family has produced some stellar horses. Willing to give this one a look i the post parade. Hot rider as of late. Longshot potential, at least to hit the board.

Hyndford - Another Mr. P and this one has 2 solid dosage points. Can probably run a long distance but speed is the question. Jersey Joe in the saddle knows how to work an 8-1 type horse into the winner's circle. I always respect a lightly raced TAP horse.

Snapper Sinclair - Mr. P but with a 9.00 dosage. Not too many of those win 9F races. I've always felt Carson City/City Zip horses were best at sprints to short routes. Tough to dump from the gimmicks but perhaps one of the "favorites" I use less.

Lone Sailor - This guy has Countess Wanda in tail female. That's a nice conduit mare if you ascribe to that theory. Another Kentucky JC horse. No shortage of form out of that race but this one would need to add about 15 points to Brisnet figure to content for win. Possible bomber on bottom of gimmicks.

My Boy Jack - The 9 hole won't hamper this closer. The long stretch is well suited for his style provided he doesn't sit too far back. Win contender and one I feel is must use in the exotics. I do think 9F is his limit however.

Dark Templar - Well, he does get Geroux. Other than that, this horse looks over-matched. The 10 hole doesn't help given his style.


Early thoughts are to take the /
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Old 03-20-2018, 06:17 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
This race does seemingly lack star power this year but LA Derby horses do have a knack of hitting the Kentucky Derby exotics, occasionally at long odds.

Bravazo - Gets a hall of fame rider and third start from mild layoff. Has the Buckpasser-x. No shortage of dosage points but nothing on the solid or professional. Contender.

Noble Indy - Brisnet figures have been steady through first three starts. JV a solid rider but likely needs to step up to win here. Comes from female family 1 which has had some good success at distance.

Marmello - Why? Would need at 20 point Brisnet bump to contend here. Potential scratch.

Givemeaminit - Dallas Stewart special gets the services of Castellano. Mr. P on top and female family 1 but would need a solid step up to contend for the top prize. He's had 8 starts to figure it out.

Retirement Fund - I'm willing to draw a line through last out in the mud. Female family 17b is the same as Gun Runner. This family has produced some stellar horses. Willing to give this one a look i the post parade. Hot rider as of late. Longshot potential, at least to hit the board.

Hyndford - Another Mr. P and this one has 2 solid dosage points. Can probably run a long distance but speed is the question. Jersey Joe in the saddle knows how to work an 8-1 type horse into the winner's circle. I always respect a lightly raced TAP horse.

Snapper Sinclair - Mr. P but with a 9.00 dosage. Not too many of those win 9F races. I've always felt Carson City/City Zip horses were best at sprints to short routes. Tough to dump from the gimmicks but perhaps one of the "favorites" I use less.

Lone Sailor - This guy has Countess Wanda in tail female. That's a nice conduit mare if you ascribe to that theory. Another Kentucky JC horse. No shortage of form out of that race but this one would need to add about 15 points to Brisnet figure to content for win. Possible bomber on bottom of gimmicks.

My Boy Jack - The 9 hole won't hamper this closer. The long stretch is well suited for his style provided he doesn't sit too far back. Win contender and one I feel is must use in the exotics. I do think 9F is his limit however.

Dark Templar - Well, he does get Geroux. Other than that, this horse looks over-matched. The 10 hole doesn't help given his style.


Early thoughts are to take the /
When you say Retirement Fund traces back to family 17b-what does that mean? Don't 90% of all race horses trace to Phalaris w/all the other lines dying out? When I look at Lone Sailor, the bottom of the pedigree is the same old MR P/ Northern Dancer cross-like almost every horse

Last edited by Afleet; 03-20-2018 at 06:22 PM. Reason: addition
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Old 03-20-2018, 06:30 PM   #4
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Bravazo's last work 5F in 59.60 at Oaklawn is motoring
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Old 03-20-2018, 06:48 PM   #5
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Bravazo - Solid horse. I feel he'll be an underlay, but you have to include.

Noble Indy - Didn't catch my eye in the Risen Star, and he's had things relatively soft up front in his short career, but the iron is hot with Pletcher, and his value may be better than Bravazo or Snapper. Possible secondary key.

Marmello - decent pace last time, just no indication that he belongs here. Toss.

Givemeaminit - toss. Maybe 3rd and 4th in exotics.

Retirement Fund - tossing today.

Hyndford - too cheap. Toss.

Snapper Sinclair - Decent horse. Have to include.

Lone Sailor - Seems about as good as anyone else and gets to capitalize on a contested pace. Should be a generous price. The Key.

My Boy Jack - Poor man's Exaggerator. Every right to get a piece but no right to be favored or near-favored. Reluctantly include underneath.

Dark Templar - I'll bet against his chances of stepping up in class here.


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Old 03-20-2018, 07:01 PM   #6
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Snapper Sinclair seems like he's graduated from turf to dirt. Here he gets a top jock. Jose can do his favorite patented E/P trip or try to wire the field. SS has enough versatility.

I find it odd that Asmussen entered Retirement Fund here. Is that a sign that they want Jose Ortiz to rate a bit, and 'E/P' Snapper Sinclair? If not, don't they run the risk of further heating up the pace to each other's detriment?

Not exactly a clear compliment in styles.
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Old 03-20-2018, 07:07 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
When you say Retirement Fund traces back to family 17b-what does that mean? Don't 90% of all race horses trace to Phalaris w/all the other lines dying out? When I look at Lone Sailor, the bottom of the pedigree is the same old MR P/ Northern Dancer cross-like almost every horse
This HRN post discusses it well.

The gist of it is some believe certain traits are only or preferentially passed through the female. I'm not the biologist to verify if it's sound or not but certain female families have done very well at longer distance. Familes 1x and 23b have done particularly well in the Kentucky Derby. Family 17b has had some strong runners like Gun Runner, Decidedly (1962 Derby winner), and Gallorette are a few that come to mind.

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Old 03-20-2018, 07:47 PM   #8
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Snapper Sinclair seems like he's graduated from turf to dirt. Here he gets a top jock. Jose can do his favorite patented E/P trip or try to wire the field. SS has enough versatility.

I find it odd that Asmussen entered Retirement Fund here. Is that a sign that they want Jose Ortiz to rate a bit, and 'E/P' Snapper Sinclair? If not, don't they run the risk of further heating up the pace to each other's detriment?

Not exactly a clear compliment in styles.
Its hard for me to play him (SS) w/that one-turn pedigree, but I have been wrong before-just last week as a matter of fact

Last edited by Afleet; 03-20-2018 at 07:48 PM. Reason: addition
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Old 03-21-2018, 12:39 PM   #9
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They have My Boy Jack as the ml favorite at 5/2. My play would be the hoss if I get 3/1.

Will the horse wire the field?
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Old 03-21-2018, 02:10 PM   #10
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Assuming a fair track, doesn't Noble Indy lay over this field?

Wasn't last time the time to have the 1,7 or 9 considering odds, track bias and race flow last out?

I suppose I'd take a shot with the 5 underneath coming out of that strange day at Oaklawn.
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Old 03-21-2018, 04:43 PM   #11
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Lone Sailor - Seems about as good as anyone else and gets to capitalize on a contested pace. Should be a generous price. The Key.
After thinking about it more, I'm going with Lone Sailor too lol.

I had to think about it a little more, but he was pace compromised in the Feb. 19 race and the flop in the Lecomte was because of blinkers.
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Old 03-21-2018, 04:59 PM   #12
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They have My Boy Jack as the ml favorite at 5/2. My play would be the hoss if I get 3/1.

Will the horse wire the field?
think Retirement Fund may be in the lead and Bravazo has to go also. Snapper may get hung out to dry
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Old 03-21-2018, 05:32 PM   #13
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Assuming a fair track, doesn't Noble Indy lay over this field?

Wasn't last time the time to have the 1,7 or 9 considering odds, track bias and race flow last out?

I suppose I'd take a shot with the 5 underneath coming out of that strange day at Oaklawn.
He looks like the best horse, and the horse that seems to deserve to be favored.

If My Boy Jack is in fact clearly favored, it really opens up the betting in terms of multiple uses or boxes. Kind of becomes almost like a +takeout or carryover pool if that happens.

I love Lone Sailor @ 20/1, but I would pick Noble Indy if both of these guys were 5/2.

If My Boy Jack is a clear favorite, I will key both and .

There's some danger that enough players will commit to betting Noble Indy that he will become the wiseguy horse and vie for favoritism. Hopefully it goes the other direction with My Boy Jack and/or Bravazo taking money for the recent success.
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Old 03-21-2018, 08:47 PM   #14
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Race looks to lack from a value stand point. (maybe)

Bravazo - Should be the favorite. Has the best resume, a solid rider and shows a bullet. Caution, slight decline the last time after 3 improving figures. The pick does not take long to find here, but low odds means I am going to look for value in the exacta.

Noble Indy - Lost ground last time in the stretch and has more ground to cover here. Gets money because of the A Team connections and adds value elsewhere.

Marmello - Uhmmm...YIKES!

Givemeaminit - Gets a pilot switch. Best has come sprinting or on a off track. Overlooked in the exacta but gets a good set up and will be used.

Retirement Fund - Forgive the last because of the mud? Breeding is a plus but looks like he needs to be in front. Useful for the exacta.

Hyndford - Pletcher dropped him into Claimers to break maiden at Tampa. Think he is better than the .

Snapper Sinclair - Tough call here, is another one on the 3 and out pattern. Does not need the lead and has a good jock. Wary but can be used.

Lone Sailor - Shows his best against lessor competition. Like the running style but not against this group.

My Boy Jack - SA to Oak, back to SA, now to FG. Has handled the travel and got a great trip in the last. Connections want to win this one but will have to make his trip this time.

Dark Templar - Adds something early but won't stay around.

Exacta: /
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Old 03-21-2018, 09:25 PM   #15
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Totally off topic, but I wonder where poster "Boys at Tosconova" is? He usually shows up during the prep races each year.
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