Rebel Stakes

[PowerUpPaynter]

Justiify > Magnum Moon - I dont consider it close...

[Musket Man]

Magnum appears to be one of those TAP's that will run up the track next out. Lots to play against next out to me. He was hot entering the gate, had a dream trip and was green in the stretch. Saez rode him pretty hard as well, slow late.

Solo appears to be one paced, something that isn't bad at 10f's. No, I'm not putting him in winners circle on first Saturday in May. He didn't like being down inside, and was stuck behind a wall of horses for most of race. Prat tried to dive to rail, but angled back out and was running at the end. He dug in, which is a sign of a horse that won't quit. Does he have his knocks, no q, but I'll take Solo out of this race over Moon all day. He has that Mor Spirit look to him. By Curlin, so he should improve, with RAN on top, but he'll need to move up next out, no question.

Sporting Chance is a sprinter. I thought that going in and it certainly cemented what I thought post race.

Combatant is a nibbler. He'll need a pace melt down, in order to win, useful type under in the Derby if he makes the gate.

All in all, after one day, I'm not sure this will be a key race moving forward to the first Saturday in May.

[Immortal6]

Solomini reminds me of Irap (RIP) from last year a bit. Seems to be a plodder type that just won't quit, but his inability to switch leads or show much turn of foot entering the stretch limits his upside in winning these bigger races. I could certainly be wrong, but as of right now I don't think I could bet him in the win spot at a race longer than a mile unless he meets up with a weak field.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Equibase score for the winner is a 109. This compares to 107 for American Pharoah and highest since Will Take Charge snared a 111. The difference between this run and AP is AP got faster as the race went on while Moon got a little slower each split. Justify’s race was similar in getting slower each split. To me suggests neither a lock in the Ark.

What is this this, turf racing?

So let me get this straight, the ideal situation is a for a slow pace that allows a horse to be able to run faster as the race goes on?

Not for me, I wont say the opposite is best on dirt because obviously finishing is important but I want fast paces and solid finishes.

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Equibase score for the winner is a 109. This compares to 107 for American Pharoah and highest since Will Take Charge snared a 111. The difference between this run and AP is AP got faster as the race went on while Moon got a little slower each split. Justify’s race was similar in getting slower each split. To me suggests neither a lock in the Ark.

The fact Equibase had Will Take Charge faster than American Pharoah at the same point in their careers tells you a lot about the figures.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

All he needed was a rider.
The lead weights were more of a help.

I actually bet the winner but also had a 4-10 exacta box. I'm starting to think Combatant is a big time hanger.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

What is this this, turf racing?

So let me get this straight, the ideal situation is a for a slow pace that allows a horse to be able to run faster as the race goes on?

Not for me, I wont say the opposite is best on dirt because obviously finishing is important but I want fast paces and solid finishes.

Ideally, for a Derby contender, the horse shows there is some energy in the tank at the end of a race that is shorter than the Derby. Most Derby winners will run the final 3/8th of a 9F prep in 37.6 or less. Let's look at last year's Florida Derby: 23.80, 23.67, 24.29, 12.53. Steady as she goes and the final 3/8th was 36.82.

I often toss horses showing drastically slower tail end spits. The key word is drastically. Justify ran the following splits in his second start: 22.68, 24.54, 26.09. I realize he was likely geared down a little at the end but he slowed down 1.6 seconds and will need to run an extra panel in Arkansas and an extra two panels in Kentucky, if he even qualifies. This type of pattern usually screams toss from the Derby win pool to me. The Rebel has better but not ideal split times. Moon ran the 6-8F split a full second slower than the previous split after the leader hit the 6F pole in an unremarkable 1:11.26. Moon might be a pace dependent type horse. Too early to tell but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets chewed up in a faster pace. I suspect he's more Derby pretender than contender but shall see how the Ark goes.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Ideally, for a Derby contender, the horse shows there is some energy in the tank at the end of a race that is shorter than the Derby. Most Derby winners will run the final 3/8th of a 9F prep in 37.6 or less. Let's look at last year's Florida Derby: 23.80, 23.67, 24.29, 12.53. Steady as she goes and the final 3/8th was 36.82.

I often toss horses showing drastically slower tail end spits. The key word is drastically. Justify ran the following splits in his second start: 22.68, 24.54, 26.09. I realize he was likely geared down a little at the end but he slowed down 1.6 seconds and will need to run an extra panel in Arkansas and an extra two panels in Kentucky, if he even qualifies. This type of pattern usually screams toss from the Derby win pool to me. The Rebel has better but not ideal split times. Moon ran the 6-8F split a full second slower than the previous split after the leader hit the 6F pole in an unremarkable 1:11.26. Moon might be a pace dependent type horse. Too early to tell but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets chewed up in a faster pace. I suspect he's more Derby pretender than contender but shall see how the Ark goes.

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

The fact Equibase had Will Take Charge faster than American Pharoah at the same point in their careers tells you a lot about the figures.

The figures are subject to interpretation but then again AP ran a pedestrian Rebel in terms of physical time. It was the way he sped up as the race went on that was eye opening.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You dont think if Justify ran say the first quarter in 25 he wouldnt run the second quarter in 24 and so on through the race?

They run faster early in socal for a reason, its what wins dirt races, and history has shown it wins Derbys as well (among tons of other races).

I dont have the time to go look at say Ill Have Another or say Sunday Silence's Derby Preps but I think your theory is flawed out of the gate.

Come again?

I'll Have Another Santa Anita Derby: 24.00, 24.03, 24.22, 12.52. His final 3/8th was 36.74 minus two lengths. I don't have Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby split times but it appears he finished the final 3/8th in 37.8.

And for good measure, I'll add final 3/8th Giacamo 37.4 and Real Quiet 36.6.

What else you got?

[letswastemoney]

I'm not going to get bogged down in numbers, but I liked Magnum Moon's win. He has a smooth way of running.

Todd Pletcher is always a threat, unless his horse wins the Kentucky Derby. Then he can be counted on to flop in the Preakness.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Come again?

I'll Have Another Santa Anita Derby: 24.00, 24.03, 24.22, 12.52. His final 3/8th was 36.74 minus two lengths. I don't have Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby split times but it appears he finished the final 3/8th in 37.8.

And for good measure, I'll add final 3/8th Giacamo 37.4 and Real Quiet 36.6.

What else you got?

Yes, slower each quarter, like you said, he was a toss using your analysis which clearly favors closers.

You also did not use any track variant in the fractions, which is pretty useless.

[GMB@BP]

Sunday Silence 24, 25 1/5, and 12 4/5 (opened up 12 lengths over that stretch)....i am sure you loved easy goer going into that race, he fit your profile a lot better I am sure.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Sunday Silence 24, 25 1/5, and 12 4/5 (opened up 12 lengths over that stretch)....i am sure you loved easy goer going into that race, he fit your profile a lot better I am sure.

Both horses fit the angle and they finished 1-2. Again, most Derby winners complete the final 3/8th of their 9F preps in under 38 seconds as Sunday Silence and placed Easy Goer did. Those times generally won’t happen with 26 second final quarter splits. I never said the spilt would always be descending. I suggested the splits should not fall off appreciably. Derby by theft is rare.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Both horses fit the angle and they finished 1-2. Again, most Derby winners complete the final 3/8th of their 9F preps in under 38 seconds as Sunday Silence and placed Easy Goer did. Those times generally won’t happen with 26 second final quarter splits. I never said the spilt would always be descending. I suggested the splits should not fall off appreciably. Derby by theft is rare.

what makes you think Justify cant sit much further back?