Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[GMB@BP]

Not sure who it was but someone I follow on Twitter showed the exactas loading into the gate at GP and the winning combination was $76 and when it came back was like $40. How can you handicap for that in any kind of value odds scenario?

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Not sure who it was but someone I follow on Twitter showed the exactas loading into the gate at GP and the winning combination was $76 and when it came back was like $40. How can you handicap for that in any kind of value odds scenario?

It was Ed DeRosa, the tweet was part of my post. Showed the win and exacta pools.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Not sure who it was but someone I follow on Twitter showed the exactas loading into the gate at GP and the winning combination was $76 and when it came back was like $40. How can you handicap for that in any kind of value odds scenario?

No one in the industry from top to bottom gives a damn about things like this. I got friendly with the manager of a local OTB a few years ago...and I casually mentioned to him in a conversation that my pick was loaded in the gate at odds of 6-1, but was 7-2 by the time the horse was getting its picture taken in the winners circle. The manager's comment to me was: "You fvcking horseplayers are never satisfied. You complain even when you win."

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Denny

CJ,
I don't think it's anywhere near that dire.
Less than half of betting these days is on WPS - it's less every year.
People that like betting horses will shift their action even more away from straight betting.
Let the sharks devour themselves.
I'll just swim in the pools they're not involved in - like Pick 3's - a great bet to play anyway that's underutilized by most players imo.
I'm not going to abandon what i love doing because of crw.

This thread just discussed an example from yesterday of an exacta price being cut in half in the last minute of betting, so not sure how "don't bet WPS" really is useful advice.

[Denny]

People have been hammering exactas late forever too.

Beyer talks about one such person in Picking Winners - Doc (I knew him by sight from his clipboard he used)- back in the 70's charting them and playing accordingly. Made moey that way, at least according to Beyer.

Nothing new here.

What about all the Exactas that go UP when someone hammers a particular combination.
No one talks about this either.

I like P3's and P4's. I mentioned P3's in my post.
I don't have to think about all this nonsense.
Get a grip or stop playing everyone.

Besides tracks don't give a damn. They've got casino dole.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No one in the industry from top to bottom gives a damn about things like this. I got friendly with the manager of a local OTB a few years ago...and I casually mentioned to him in a conversation that my pick was loaded in the gate at odds of 6-1, but was 7-2 by the time the horse was getting its picture taken in the winners circle. The manager's comment to me was: "You fvcking horseplayers are never satisfied. You complain even when you win."

Racing has no clue who the customer is.
The casinos do.

Hence, the reality of today's racing.

Racing is a necessary evil for them......for now.
Personally< I see no reason whatsoever that racing should have any part of the casinos or the sports betting when it comes.

Racing is a just a leech to the more successful forms of gambling. An albatross that needs to surgically removed.
Why should racing get a penny of slot money for purses - it is a stupid idea.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

Racing has no clue who the customer is.
The casinos do.

Hence, the reality of today's racing.

Racing is a necessary evil for them......for now.
Personally< I see no reason whatsoever that racing should have any part of the casinos or the sports betting when it comes.

Racing is a just a leech to the more successful forms of gambling. An albatross that needs to surgically removed.
Why should racing get a penny of slot money for purses - it is a stupid idea.

It was part of a great con. The racing industry was able to convince the politicians that the slots money would go towards "improving the sport"...when the real motive all along was to make the horseplayer as "unnecessary" as possible in the game. Trainer Jeff Mullins spilled the beans many years ago, when he publicly stated: "When will we be allowed to run casinos, so we don't have to depend on the moron horseplayers for our daily bread?"

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

The mechanics of it don't work anymore except for what's likely just a handful of people who have bought visibility to a narrower odds 'range' as you called it, by that I mean the odds they can see are much closer to the final odds than what the tote shows when they're loading. I would suggest that you start jotting down minimum acceptable odds on your horses, it doesn't have to be top picks, just minimum acceptable odds on any horse that you're seeing as a potential good bet. When you get down to 0 MTP write down the odds. At this point it's a bet or it isn't, this cuts through all of the theoretical nonsense. When the race is over write down the final odds. What you'll find these days if you're any good at setting probabilities in the first place is 40% of what you deemed as acceptable odds turned out to be unacceptable. The better your estimates are the more likely you will see this, if you pull numbers out of a hat then no you won't see it. I would say it's all but guaranteed after several thousand bets where 40% of these winners paid less than you yourself are deeming necessary to minimally break-even that you will not be showing a profit. Now if we're betting fixed odds then the 40% becomes 0% and you will suddenly have a great chance of showing a profit assuming your minimum odds are accurate enough. When I was playing professionally this was 20 years ago the 40% number had to have been far lower because there was no way I would be beating the takeout flat betting for ten years straight every day while getting locked into that many underlays. Some did drop below what I felt was fair, let's be real, but nothing like 40%.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If this is true, then you'll be able to explain to me, in great detail, EXACTLY WHAT BEING "HOOKED UP DIRECTLY TO THE TOTE" means...EXACTLY.

I'm hooked up to the tote too...

i have no idea how it works in your country.

in mine once upon a time, not very long ago.......
the group i was part of and based in tasmania at that time, was given office space in the headquarters of the relevant pari mutuel operator there(TasTote), for the princely sum of $1 per annum rent.
It meant the people doing our betting, could put their bets on marginally later than others, and it was a huge advantage to them apparently(i had nothing to do with the betting side of it).

the world's biggest gambler, zjelko and his mob, have(had?) office space in the headquarters of the nsw pari mutuel operator which was the biggest in australia.
it would be naive to think that did not give them some advantage.

[trifecta]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

When the horses went in the gate in GP's 8th race Wednesday, Uncle B was 7/1. Four or five steps after the gate opened, his odds dropped to 3/1. He won and paid $8.60. The odds might have dropped while the horses were still in the gate but we didn't see the drop until after the gate opened.

Waiting to bet until the horses enter the gate doesn't always give you an idea of what the horse will pay.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by trifecta

When the horses went in the gate in GP's 8th race Wednesday, Uncle B was 7/1. Four or five steps after the gate opened, his odds dropped to 3/1. He won and paid $8.60. The odds might have dropped while the horses were still in the gate but we didn't see the drop until after the gate opened.

Waiting to bet until the horses enter the gate doesn't always give you an idea of what the horse will pay.

Uncle B was a headline event around here...hardly something you see every race.

[davew]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles.

Could you clarify this?
For example win on 1 would show something like-> 3,6,2,200,15,200,2,2,4,3,2,2,2,2,200,300,2,2,2,2,2 ,2

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by davew

Could you clarify this?
For example win on 1 would show something like-> 3,6,2,200,15,200,2,2,4,3,2,2,2,2,200,300,2,2,2,2,2 ,2

I'm sorry, Dave, but I don't know what I am looking at.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I'm sorry, Dave, but I don't know what I am looking at.

Looks pretty simple, the actual amounts bet on the #1, as they are fed into the tote

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Looks pretty simple, the actual amounts bet on the #1, as they are fed into the tote

Ah.

Again, I guess I confused people with what I said.

I did not mean "ticket" but rather "combination."


Dave