HONG KONG/SHA TIN - SUN 10/23

[Nitro]

R#6 - 11-13 W/ 1-9-3-10.......Results: 13-8-12-3 (2nd choice)
(The winning fav was bet so intently I also did a 13/All Quin for the fun of it)
Dutch – 11 ( 8.8/1 ) – 13 ( 1.6/1 ) – 1 ( 19/1 ) - $48.00 – $345.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.6	8.8	19.0	BET	PRF	
$5	$20	$40			
$40	$11	$5	$56	$48	86%
$104	$104	$104

[kevb]

R7:

WP

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-5 W/ 2-4-6-3……….Results: 3-4-2-8 (6th choice)
With solid betting on the winning favorite there was an obvious change in the top 3.
Dutch – 1 ( 16/1 ) – 5 ( 34/1 ) – 2 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($59.00) – $286.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
6.8	16.0	34.0	BET	PRF	
$16	$34	$70			
$35	$16	$8	$59	$214	363%
$273	$272	$280

[kevb]

R8:

KK puts them to sleep.

WP

[Nitro]

R#8 - 5-4 W/ 2-6-3-14............ Results: 3-6-4-8 (5th choice – $660 Tri Bx)
Dutch – 5 ( 5.8/1 ) – 4 ( 2.8/1 ) – 2 ( 36/1 ) - ($61.00) – $225.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.8	5.5	35.0	BET	PRF	
$8	$13	$72			
$36	$21	$4	$61	$76	124%
$137	$137	$144

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 W/ 3-6-9-4.......... Results: 4-2-1-10 (6th choice – $631 Quin & $8,594 Tri Bx)
Dutch – 1 ( 9.4/1 ) – 2 ( 48/1 ) – 3 ( 8.3/1 ) - ($94.00) – $131.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT 	TOT	PRF %
8.3	9.4	44.0	BET	PRF	
$19	$21	$90			
$45	$40	$9	$94	$325	345%
$419	$416	$405

[Nitro]

R#10 - 4-2 W/ 8-9-7-1......... Results: 7-9-14-10 (5th choice)
Dutch – 4 ( 25/1 ) – 2 ( 12/1 ) – 8 ( 18/1 ) - ($114.00) – $17.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
12.0	18.0	25.0	BET	PRF	
$26	$38	$52			
$52	$36	$26	$114	$562	495%
$676	$676	$676

[formula_2002]

Nitro, some comments if you dont mind
I looked at the hk race 3 final odds.
assuming those odds are actually odds +1, the book % sums to 1.23. which is a 19% take out

therefore your play on the top 3 horses would represent 22% of the true pool.
the min $1 return on that bet is $4.54
Did you get that $1 return on your actual play?


Thanks

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro, some comments if you dont mind
I looked at the hk race 3 final odds.
assuming those odds are actually odds +1, the book % sums to 1.23. which is a 19% take out

therefore your play on the top 3 horses would represent 22% of the true pool.
the min $1 return on that bet is $4.54
Did you get that $1 return on your actual play?

Thanks

Hey Formula I don’t mind at all that you comment on my posts.
I appreciate that that you may have a different way of looking at the individual entry odds in terms of value. However, I only look at the face value (odds) of the entries chosen, because as I mentioned previously the odds that are displayed already reflect the take-out.

When I placed my bet at about 4 mins to post the odds were slightly different and there was only a slightly higher Profit % then the final odds that I originally posted:
R#3 - 2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5............. Results: 8-12-14-6 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 2 ( 10/1 ) –1 ( 21/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) - $381.00

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
10.0	12.0	21.0	BET	PRF	
$22	$26	$44			
$44	$37	$22	$103	$381	369%
$484	$484	$484

It would be impossible to place a $1 Dutch Win bet on 3 entries. I’m not sure how you arrived at a $4.54/$1 return, because as you can see that by dividing the actual profit of $381 (above) by the amount bet $103 has a $1 return of $3.70. Only if you divide that that $ return by 81% (your 19% take-out value) can you arrive at $4.57/$1. But I never concern myself with take-out.
Because my average hit ratio (Winning plays/Total plays) when Dutching Live is actually 61% I lean toward playing only those races that provide a minimum of a 55% Profit margin.

The Bottom line for me is Profit in $.

[formula_2002]

Nitro


"I’m not sure how you arrived at a $4.54/$1 return"


Its the sum of your three selection "true" win probability
that is (1/(odds+1)) x 1- track out. in this case it sums to .22.
the "fair" 1$ return for that value is 1/.22 = $4.54.
So when you take your return/amount bet it must be equal to $4.54 just to break even

If you make that much or more you are playing with a pair of loaded dice in your favor, else the long term out come is not profitable.

Keep winning!