10/12/18 R9 Keeneland G3 Buffalo Trace

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yet another card of bombs and surprising results, Keeneland keeps chugging along.


Miss Gossip: First try at graded stakes company last out wasn't all that good. Difficult to see the needed improvement to take these down.

Con Te Partino: She hasn't been embarrassed, but she hasn't really been involved to win anything of note. Drops to her shortest distance she has ever raced. Is she a pure sprint closer?

Belvoir Bay: Proven commodity that hits the winner's circle often in 9 times out of 21 tries. As good as any in here, and will likely be the post time favorite. Must respect.

Delectation: Her 'States' arrival hasn't been too kind. Rarely do we find many Euro turf sprinters that were long at one time turned to sprinting. Gotta pass.

Country Chick: Winner at 123/1 last out, gets a G3 upgrade. Even at 60/1 you aren't getting the right odds.

Morticia: She can run. 6 for 11 at the distance and 10 for 11 hitting the board at this sprint turf distance. Needs to get out of the gate and on the lead though. Interesting entry.

Girl Knows Best: Likely the speed of the speed, but can completely collapse at even 5 1/2 furlongs. Her best may be behind her, even as a 4YO.

Excessivespending: Tried hard to find something to like. I can't.

Chanteline: An improving 6YO mare? Undoubtedly in form, and should sit a decent trip to be coming late.

Aiken to Be: Not sure being odds on favorite in OC$50K races at Arlington Park and winning less than half of those qualifies for this event. I'm Aiken to pass.

Smiling Causeway: He best running is on the front end, and she isn't fast enough for these.

Brielle's Appeal: Another outside front runner, that was caught late last out. 12 hole likely won't be kind.

SUMMARY: Race looks to set up perfectly for the Belvoir Bay. She'll get bet hard. I'll look to do the following:

W:
EX: /
TRI: //

[Robert Fischer]

tough race

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

tough race

Good race. With multiple wagering opportunities.

[Robert Fischer]

baffled here, but I'll take a stab...

fav3 could be a paper-tiger, could be the class here. I don't know.

I don't really like the 6, but she could do it.

Give me the and the .
Both are prices on the board... I get 1 closer and one speed, one inside one outside. Roll the dice and see if I can get one or both of them somewhere in the super...

Dime Super
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15
$0.10 SU2, 13
Wager Total $84.00

50 Cent Tri
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.50 TRI2, 13
Wager Total $42.00

$4 Exacta
$4 EXA2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$4 EXA2, 13
Wager Total $56.00


$25 WIN2, 13
Wager Total $50.00


TOTAL = $232.00

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

baffled here, but I'll take a stab...

fav3 could be a paper-tiger, could be the class here. I don't know.

I don't really like the 6, but she could do it.

Give me the and the .
Both are prices on the board... I get 1 closer and one speed, one inside one outside. Roll the dice and see if I can get one or both of them somewhere in the super...

Dime Super
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.10 SU2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.10 SU1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15
$0.10 SU2, 13
Wager Total $84.00

50 Cent Tri
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.50 TRI2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$0.50 TRI2, 13
Wager Total $42.00

$4 Exacta
$4 EXA2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13
$4 EXA2, 13
Wager Total $56.00


$25 WIN2, 13
Wager Total $50.00


TOTAL = $232.00

I love every ounce, energy, and line of this post. Go get it!

[Jeff P]

#2 CON TE PARTIRO --

Positives: Imo, her most recent running line at KDX might be better than it looks on paper. Watching the replay, I thought her rider found traffic and had her covered up for much of the stretch run. Imo, she didn't find room until after the race had been decided. Three nice works since then. Ward enters her in another G3 today. Draws the 2 hole (Imo a positive on the KEE turf.) Finally, has strong late pace numbers (HDW) vs. these in what (Imo) figures to be a fast paced race.

Negatives: Seems a bit out-classed. (Hasn't won in the US at this level.) Also, her rider Albin Jiminez is 0 for 14 (and hasn't finished second or better) on the KEE turf dating back to April 2017.

That said, at 15-1 MLine and at 6-1 on the toteboard at 1 mtp I'll take a shot.

Win or lose, hardly the worst stab I've ever taken.



-jp

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