Help with Canterbury July 13 Race 6

[CBYRacer]

I would appreciate any of your thoughts on the eventual winner (#8 Hoity Toity) of this race and why she was bet down so much. Morning line was 8-1. Got bet down to 9-5 right at the start of the race. Horse appeared to be off-form running at longer odds at higher class level.

Appreciate your insights as I work to improve my handicapping. Thanks!

[cj]

Looks to me like her new connections got too ambitious after the claim. She dropped to her lowest claiming level in some time, and her claiming races looked like this, newest to oldest:

2nd by 1 for 16k
1st by 1 for 16k
5th by 5 3/4 for 16k
2nd by 3/4 for 16k
1st by 5 1/4 for 12k

This race was for 7.5k. HUGE class edge.

[Robert Fischer]

Part was a bit of error in the morning line, part was the knowledge behind the money understanding that although the recent results weren't pretty, that the would appreciate the class drop as well as a fair chance at some pace/flow relative to recent starts. Some public money will include a jockey like Hernandez on the turf, but considering the bad ml, and the lack of pretty recent form, most of the money was probably relatively informed.

Once they posted the Double will-pays, it was clear that the would take some money and had to be respected in plays.

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by cj

Looks to me like her new connections got too ambitious after the claim. She dropped to her lowest claiming level in some time, and her claiming races looked like this, newest to oldest:

2nd by 1 for 16k
1st by 1 for 16k
5th by 5 3/4 for 16k
2nd by 3/4 for 16k
1st by 5 1/4 for 12k

This race was for 7.5k. HUGE class edge.

Thanks, CJ. This makes sense. What I've never understood is why a horse will seemingly wake up when she goes back to her competitive class level. The horse had two crappy recent efforts at a higher class level and then reverted back to good form once at a more competitive level. On paper, there was no evidence of good form in those past two races.

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Part was a bit of error in the morning line, part was the knowledge behind the money understanding that although the recent results weren't pretty, that the would appreciate the class drop as well as a fair chance at some pace/flow relative to recent starts. Some public money will include a jockey like Hernandez on the turf, but considering the bad ml, and the lack of pretty recent form, most of the money was probably relatively informed.

Once they posted the Double will-pays, it was clear that the would take some money and had to be respected in plays.

This is very helpful, Robert, and makes a lot of sense to me. I think there was some inside knowledge / idiosyncracies here that I could have perhaps discerned through daily-double probables. The class drop alone, in my opinion, doesn't explain the 9-5 odds. I can see 4 or 5-1 in this field, but not 9-5 based on public info.

Thanks for your insights. Good stuff.

[FRMNBRI]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Part was a bit of error in the morning line, part was the knowledge behind the money understanding that although the recent results weren't pretty, that the would appreciate the class drop as well as a fair chance at some pace/flow relative to recent starts. Some public money will include a jockey like Hernandez on the turf, but considering the bad ml, and the lack of pretty recent form, most of the money was probably relatively informed.

Once they posted the Double will-pays, it was clear that the would take some money and had to be respected in plays.

Definetly have to agree with Robert. When i was handicpping that race for my multi race ticket, the first thing that was a red flag was the ML. It was almost like the ML that we see at GP . If you watch Cantebury there is alot of very late money comes in or early money. That along with the drop and Hernandez in the irons

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by FRMNBRI

Definetly have to agree with Robert. When i was handicpping that race for my multi race ticket, the first thing that was a red flag was the ML. It was almost like the ML that we see at GP . If you watch Cantebury there is alot of very late money comes in or early money. That along with the drop and Hernandez in the irons

Appreciate the good response. Thanks for your insights, guys!

[ranchwest]

I had her second on my odds line, though much higher than #3. She was also second on BRIS Prime Power rating. Good jock and consistently reasonable speed ratings on the grass. As others have said, the big class drop.

Horses tend to be positional. When they are above their real class level, they often can't fit into the position they want comfortably and will often turn in what appears to be poor efforts. But if you look at this horse's speed ratings, they're all reasonable.

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I had her second on my odds line, though much higher than #3. She was also second on BRIS Prime Power rating. Good jock and consistently reasonable speed ratings on the grass. As others have said, the big class drop.

Horses tend to be positional. When they are above their real class level, they often can't fit into the position they want comfortably and will often turn in what appears to be poor efforts. But if you look at this horse's speed ratings, they're all reasonable.

All good points. Interesting point about the positioning. Something good to consider. Thanks much!

[Boomer]

Very common in harness racing. When a horse races above the level it can win, the human factor kicks in. Get a couple of real bad looking lines on the PPS so it looks like the horse is off form. Then when he drops to his proper level, connections get a better price.


That is the dirtying up factor.



More common in harness racin because
1. Nature of race class positioning ( unless a clamer) is based on money earned in last 4 or 5 starts so connections will look to drop in class and get to a winning spot by being off the board.


2. Harness horses typically race every week and can hold their form for months, so dirtying up becomes part of the game.


That being said, I have seen it often in thoroughbred racing as well and if you follow certain tracks you will find the connections that use this strategy.

[Maximillion]

I dont think the connections were masterminding anything here to cash a bet.
For me id be looking to bet against that horse almost every time.